8 August 2015 (Racing at Headquarters - Flemington)

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.9 meaning we're on a SOFT (5). Downgraded forecast is for a partly cloudy day, with medium chance (40-50%) of a light shower.

RAIL: +8M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters again after we had plenty of luck a few weeks’ back on back to back Flemington Saturday meets. Rail was out +4M on July 18 and track was actually suited to those on the pace, closer to the fence, which can be a little rare for Flemington this time of year. Rail comes out a further 4M to +8M and given last time no reason to think the same won’t occur which should give most runners their chance, pace dependant. As we saw last week, any bias in the track is crucial as suggestions come out early and are based on summary outlined in this section. As always, be sure to monitor early races and speed map for best guide and if track is biased one way or another, be sure to adjust bets accordingly.

 

Race 1: We open proceedings with a benchmark 70 for the 3 year olds over 1400m. Speed maps always tricky with lightly raced runners, however on face value looks to be a decent tempo up front, especially if a few who have been on pace, decide to go forward from their wide gates. Big watch for first starter MOST WANTED who has come up favourite. Very tricky race and not overly keen to play. STARSI is most definitely the value at $21+ (most operators), however will need a lot of luck from the wide gate with the pace on. Given, the odds happy to have a small play each way. AL SHAMEEL the other across from SA over the odds at $17+ with www.sportsbet.com.au.

SUGGEST: STARSI (EACH WAY) @ $21+, AL SHAMEEL (EACH WAY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 2 (updated post Saturday morning scratchings at 8:24AM AEST): Open handicap over 1400m with several returning from lengthy breaks over less suitable trip here. Be wary of any strong support for any of these as several are well above average. On face value, looks simple especially with minimal pace expected up front. CHARMED HARMONY has been smashed into $1.50+ and should dictate terms and with the scratching of HENWOOD who we were looking at our main play on, the job only gets easier for the fave. Should be winning this and suggest a WIN only play as long as you can secure a half decent price, if not a banker for your multies/multiples. Can make a small claim for DESERT JEUNEY @ $7.50+ (SPORTSBET) who we rate highly but pace and distance to suit CHARMED HARMONY the most.

SUGGEST:  CHARMED HARMONY (WIN) @ $1.50+, DESERT JEUNEY (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)

EARLY QUADDIE SUGGESTION (added at 1:58 AEST) Aggressive and narrow, so only a smaller outlay required for a decent %:

3, 4 / 6 / 4, 5, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

 

Race 3: This one looks self-explanatory with HERSTORY to be extremely hard to beat @ $2.70+ (BETSTAR, LUXBET, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES). Should be able to cross over from barrier 9 with minimal fuss and as long as this occurs, should be winning this and suggest a WIN only play, as well as multies.

SUGGEST: HERSTORY (WIN) @ $2.70+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 4: We were keen on ABBASSO last time at nice odds and he brained them. This time, hard to beat again, however more than half the odds here at $3.20+ (most operators) and does have a tricky gate to contend with. Nothing jumping out value wise, including ABBASSO but should be hard to beat and as a result suggest a WIN only play.

SUGGEST: ABBASSO (WIN) @ $3.20+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: If they happen to be swopping, then HEAVY becomes the top pick here @ $4.40+. However, not necessarily expecting this to be the case at the moment and as a result might be running out of ground late here after getting a mile back as usual. Weir’s three pronged attack all look to get better runs and as a result think they are the keys to the race in FALAGO, REFULGENT and GINGERBOY. The latter (GINGERBOY) the best odds of the three at $11+ with CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. Longshot chance to *MUTUAL TRUST* @ $101+ with LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and UNIBET. Given the massive odds will make one of two BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day.

SUGGEST: GINGERBOY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *MUTUAL TRUST* (EACH WAY) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 6 (updated post Saturday morning scratchings at 8:24AM AEST):  Big, even field with tactics key again. On the assumption LIBERY ISLAND goes forward from the inside gate, think he gets the run of the race and in turn becomes our top pick @ $5.00+ (BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, LADBROKES). Best value a dungeon favourite in BRADMAN @ $35+ (LUXBET) who we backed in the Bendigo guineas 2 years back at 44/1 as well as running a drum at $7+ on another occasion for Dungeon fans. Fingers crossed ‘The Don’ can be in the money at a price again. Unfortunately, BRADMAN scratched first thing Saturday morning, hence removed from the suggestions. Shame as we thought he was a super price.

SUGGEST: LIBERTY ISLAND (EACH WAY) @ $5.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)   

QUADDIE SUGGESTION (added at 2:48PM AEST) - Again aggressive, especially with early legs in the hope for some blowouts later:

13 / 1, 2, 3, 8 / FIELD / 3, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13

 

Race 7: And now for the Group 3 Aurie’s Star and a very intriguing race indeed. TRUST IN THE GUST the class galloper here with 10 wins from 18 starts, 5 seconds, 1 third, hence only unplaced twice before. At $3.90+ worthy of a play for savers/multies but is unknown down the straight, first up and best will obviously come later in the prep. Concede SHIRAZ can win this, but believe $2.30+ is rock bottom odds so happy to take on at the skinny price. Instead, prefer much better value on offer with **NADEEM LASS** @ $31+ (SPORTSBET) and **LE BONSIR** @ $26+ (BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES), given the prices will make them both our BEST VALUE bets of the day. While I give *AUDINO* a blowout hope at $126+ with CROWNBET. Given the enormous odds will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **NADEEM LASS** (EACH WAY) @ $31+, **LE BONSIR** (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *AUDINO* (EACH WAY) @ $126+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 8: Tricky race down the straight over the short 1000m. We were keen to have a play at EL PRADO GOLD at what we considered a crazy 50/1+ price, but unfortunately scratched. Slight lean here to KLISHINA @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) and nice each way odds. Look for support for SENTFROMTHESTARS first up, $21+ (SPORTSBET) does look good value and any support should enhance confidence. Race runs very deep with many legitimate winning chances.

SUGGEST: KLISHINA (EACH WAY) @ $15+, SENTFROMTHESTARS (EACHWAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 9: Tough finish with a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares. Slight lean here to FIRST BLOOM @ $12+ (LUXBET, BET365, CROWNBET, UNIBET) ahead of KEPT WOMAN @ $9+ with www.bet365.com.au. Looking wider for multiples/savers don’t mind the other two Darren Weir stablemates at double figure odds also in ARTISTIC LASS and MUSICA ROYALE. ARTISTIC LASS’ chances improve if track is favouring those on pace. Another race that runs very deep with many legitimate winning chances.

SUGGEST: FIRST BLOOM (EACH WAY) @ $12+, KEPT WOMAN (EACH WAY) @ $9+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

SUGGESTED MULTIES:

SAFER BUT STILL JUICY:

  • CHARMED HARMONY (WIN)
  • HERSTORY (WIN)
  • ABBASSO (WIN)
  • LIBERTY ISLAND (WIN)
  • TOTAL ~ 72/1
  • ~ 10/1 SAFER OPTION WITH ABBASSO/LIBERTY ISLAND TO PLACE

 

BIG, FAT 'N' JUICY:

  • AL SHAMEEL/STARSI (PLACE)

  • CHARMED HARMONY (WIN)

  • HERSTORY (WIN)

  • ABBASSO (WIN)

  • LIBERTY ISLAND (PLACE)

  • LE BONSIR (PLACE)

  • KLISHINA (PLACE)

  • FIRST BLOOM (PLACE)

  • TOTAL ~ 8000/1+

  • ~ 30,000/1+ IF YOU TAKE ONE OF THE JUICY PLACE OPTIONS TO WIN

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a massive $25.61 per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: NADEEM LASS @ $31+, LE BONSIR @ $26+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MUTUAL TRUST @ $101+, AUDINO @ $126+

 

QUADDIE SUGGESTION (added at 2:48PM AEST) - Again aggressive, especially with early legs in the hope for some blowouts later:

13 / 1, 2, 3, 8 / FIELD / 3, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13

 #HAPPYPUNTING