ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.07, meaning we start with a GOOD (3).
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield after we raced here three weeks ago (August 29, 2015) when the rail was out +6M, out from +3M on August 15, 2015. Expecting/hoping an even track however as always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide.
Race 1: Open 3YO SWP (Set Weights plus Penalties) over 1100m. Very tricky start with many runners here bringing excellent provincial form to town, while others return from a break. BASSETT beat stablemate Kinglike on debut who beat a quality field at Headquarters, FULL ARRAY has won by a combined distance of 15L past 2 starts, while MAWAHIBB brings the best city from against top class gallopers from first prep. All with massive claims for obvious reasons and no surprise to see them the three shortest in the market. Also looks to decent paace on paper which actually includes the three mentioned and other key players and as a result, we’re going to have a couple of plays on two others who should settle back and appreciate a hot tempo and hopefully be reeling them in late at juicy odds. The two in question are WELL SIGHTED @ $26+ (most operators) and STOKED @ $21+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Both good each way value, more pace up front the better.
SUGGEST: WELL SIGHTED (EACH WAY) @ $26+, STOKER (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (25%)
Race 2: Open handicap over 1400m. Very difficult between those in the market. RUGGED CROSS now with Weir, GOOD VALUE, PAGO ROCK, MOONOVERMANHATTAN and RHYTHM TO SPARE should be fighting out the finish but little between them. At this stage, we will be steering clear, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on social channels closer to race time as this may change once we see them in the yard and monitor later money trails.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (0%)
Race 3 (updated at 10:31am AEST): Now for a benchmark 78 again over the 1400m. Again, nothing too easy about this one, made trickier by the fact that the one we were super keen on MALGUERRA (definitely the one we went for hardest in early betting) is now out. There doesn’t look to be much pace on paper. IZENASHARK @ $26+ (SPORTSBET) should get a soft lead and will give them something to chase, the query is whether he has the class. At the price, happy to play and find out. Hard speed map to nail with several who occasionally go forward drawn wide, hence this one could be won/lost with the jockeys. On class alone will also look to dabble on GRAND SLAM EAGLE @ $41+ (BET365) who at his best brains these, however has been off the track with obvious injury issues 600+ days. Take a look in the yard, and as long as there is some support, have a small each way play.
SUGGEST: IZENASHARK (EACH WAY) @ $26+, GRAND SLAM EAGLE (E/W) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 9, 11, 12 / F / F / 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Benchmark 90 for the mares again over 1400m. And another competitive even race. In saying that, we have another that jumps as a clear top pick and that is the bottom weight here in **MOSSBEAT** at the very respectable price of $12+ with LUXBET, CROWNBET, CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. Excellent each way value. Given the odds, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Race runs deep after her, led by LUCKY LAGO @ $8.50+, KAYJAY’S JOY @ $13+ and UNGRATEFUL ELLEN @ $10+, all representing good value. And while we concede SARDAAJ is a good chance, she represents no value at the skinny $3+ price.
SUGGEST: **MOSSBEAT** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (LUCKY LAGO, KAYJAY’S JOY, UNGRATEFUL ELLEN / F / F / MOSSBEAT) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: And now for the 3YO fillies again over the 1400m. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA flew home last time after needing to go back from the wide gate, which doesn’t need to be the case here. Should settle closer, potentially right behind the leaders and if so should be right in the finish. $4.60+ (SPORTSBET) the right price and worth a play. Happy to give LAZUMBA another chance here after returning in the same race, but was never a chance towards the rear on the fence, which was not the place to be on the day. Finished well enough late to make me think it was a forgive run and at $13+ (SPORTSBET) willing to give another chance. Main danger for multies/savers is GIULIETTA especially if left to dictate alone up front . Watch for any apparent leader’s bias in earlier races and if one happens to exist (which we doubt) then increase confidence and play on her.
SUGGEST: DON’T DOUBT MAMMA (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, LAZUMBA (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6 (updated at 10:31am AEST): Now for the listed Testa Rossa Stakes over the 1200m. Was keen on SARAJEVO but unfortunately out. Word was he was expected to run in Sydney over Melbourne, but given the forecast rain north of the border, was hoping they would change their minds. End result, they have scratched from both. Normally, a fan of CHARLIE BOY but wasn’t impressed by his trial and as a result taking the punt he’s not wound up ready to fire first up. FELL SWOOP looks hard to beat but skinny odds again @ $3.30+ so may leave for savers/multies. Instead think better value lies with IT IS WRITTEN @ $21+ (most operators) Then, like one at big odds her first time for Peter Moody, ex-Tasmanian galloper *ROYAL RAPTURE* at $51+ with SPORTSBET. At those odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Looking further, watch for support for JAVA,
SUGGEST: IT IS WRITTEN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, *ROYAL RAPTURE* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (JAVA, FELL SWOOP / F / F / ROYAL RAPTURE, IT IS WRITTEN) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Group 3 dash over 1200m for the mares. Another good, even competitive affair, where there looks to be decent pace up front. Concede VEZALAY is right in this on the quick backup, back to 1200m however at $3.30+ a touch short and as a result will leave for multies/savers. Instead think better value lies with HAZARD who had her measure last time and no reason can’t get her measure again here at $7.50+ with most operators. Looking deeper, also give *FORGERESS* a chance at a very juicy $61+ price (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET) which demands an each way investment also. At the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: HAZARD (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *FORGERESS* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (VEZALAY / F / F / HAZARD, FORGERESS) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8 (updated at 10:31am AEST): Group 3 over the 2000m. Big capacity field, with some guesswork needed as to how wound up several runners are with many with much bigger fish to fry later in the Spring. THE UNITED STATES flying and looks hard to beat, but they will need to be running on and will need some luck from the gate if they aren’t going wide later in the day. At the $4+ price in this field given the above, will leave for savers/multiples. Instead think KAPOUR is ready to claim a big one with (minimal) pace to suit which should allow Oliver to find a spot right on the pace (possibly leading) from the wide gate. As long as track is giving leaders/on pacers their chance by now, then should be hard to catch @ $8+ (BET365). Good value elsewhere lies with each of LET’S MAKE ADEAL @ $15+ (most operators) ahead of PRINCE CHERI @ $21+ (CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). LET’S MAKE ADEAL looks nicely poised here if you are happy to forgive first up run where many got a mile back and the bird had flown. Last prep was very good in good company and time for her to really step up in a big race in Melbourne during the Spring. PRINCE CHERI is also good value and another looking to take the step up to big Spring winner after being there and thereabouts before. Not great that Ollie has jumped off to ride KAPOUR but has jumped onto one of the faves and hopefully pulled the wrong reign on this occasion. Also give GENUINE LAD a blowout hope at $41+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) after a total forgive run first up. Stagger bets/outlays in the order provided. Wide quaddie leg where we’d also include KAPOUR and MAGNAPAL at a minimum to those mentioned above. First four saver as always an option if you like the fave.
SUGGEST: KAPOUR (E/W - PRIMARY) @ $8+, LET’S MAKE ADEAL (E/W) @ $15+, PRINCE CHERI (E/W) @ $21+, GENUINE LAD (E/W) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And we finish a huge day with the 3 year olds over the mile. Extremely difficult. At this stage head is hurting trying to line up all the form lines and as a result, prefer to wait, watch and learn from earlier races before making a decision as to whether we play or not in the lucky last. As usual, be sure to keep a close eye on our social channels (Facebook and Twitter) to receive any updates closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
CAULFIELD - RACE 9 (Updated at 5:16pm AEST): Hard finish, but after not suggesting in initial summary, best value now with TARZINO @9+, while blowout hope DEL PIERO @ $34+. Very tough. #happypunting
Average odds of $24.61+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MOSSBEAT @ $12+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: FORGERESS @ $61+, ROYAL RAPTURE @ $51+