ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2015
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with plenty of rain again in Sydney. Penetrometer currently 6.02, equating to a HEAVY (8).
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Randwick after we raced here two weeks’ back on September 5, when the rail was out +8M. As always, tempo key, but given the expected rain and back in the TRUE we can only assume that the fence will be off and they will be coming down the middle of the track. As always, keep an eye on early races for best guide and also keep a close eye on the radar. Be wary if they aren’t swooping out wide as most suggestions have been based on this being the situation and a softer/heavier track in place.
Race 1: Tricky start, especially if we get the expected rain with these lightly races youngsters. Pace looks hot, on the assumption we don’t get key scratchings prior/on the day and as a result think best value lies with COUNTERATTACK for the Chris Waller stable with the pumper Jim Cassidy aboard. Key query the wet as never run on it, so as long as there’s no alarming drift, happy to take the punt at $9.50+ (BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER, LADBROKES). The Godolphin duo MOGADOR and HAPTIC lead a list of legitimate winning chances, but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: COUNTERATTACK (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Again on the assumption we’re soft to heavy going, I think this becomes easier with two in particular jumping out in RUDY @ $3.50+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and REKINDLED POWER @ $7.50+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET). Good competitive race, but happy to play around these two on top as long the rain comes. Suggest RUDY on a WIN only basis, and REKINDLED POWER on an each way basis.
SUGGEST: RUDY (WIN) @ $3.50+, REKINDLED POWER (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Tricky benchmark 80 over 1200m, with 7 runners first up from breaks. Again on the presumption we get the rain, then I think this becomes simplified and as a result think DUPE EM’ is the standout from a best value perspective. Decent tempo up front and the quicker they go, the more it will suit **DUPE EM’** to swoop out wide late. $10+ a great each way price with SPORTSBET and at this price will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Can also make a case for the filly at the bottom of the weights MINE TWO @ $17+ (most operators) who was very good last time fresh behind the ultra-handy English and run two back behind Ottoman, despite being unplaced was good and tells us she can handle the softer ground. Hoping the rain, forces O’Shea to send SARAJEVO down to Melbourne, where we think he’s one of the BEST VALUE bets of the day in Melbourne. DARCIWOOD @ $15+ (most operators) gets conditions to suit, but just think the weight might pull him up, include in savers/multiples at juicy odds.
SUGGEST: **DUPE ‘EM’** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MINE TWO (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (DARCIWOOD / F / F / DUPE EM’, MINE TWO) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4 (updated at 11.12am AEST): The Shorts over 1100m, and what a cracking Group 2 race. Smaller but ultra-competitive and fast field assembled, really looking forward to this. TERRAVISTA arguably conceded the crown of WBS (World’s Best Sprinter) last prep to Chautauqua and would be keen to try and get it back. Has trialled brilliantly, handles the wet, Bowman elects to ride over red-hot SHIRAZ, hence there’s obviously plenty to like. Hard to beat @ $2.60+ (LUXBET, BET365)....however now scratched. Not writing off SHIRAZ @ $4.80+ (SPORTSBET) who was brilliant last time, despite Bowman jumping off as I dare say he had a prior commitment to TERRAVISTA not knowing how good SHIRAZ was now going. Despite the class and speed elsewhere, would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from these two and will be playing accordingly, with a mix of standalone and multiples...with TERRAVISTA out, SHIRAZ now comes the standalone play on a WIN only basis @ $2.50+ with SPORTSBET and BET365.
SUGGEST: SHIRAZ (WIN) @ $2.50+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 5: Gai Waterhouse looks to have a key treble of runners here all with big winning chances in KIMBERLEY STAR, FLAMBOYANT LASS and SEMPRE LIBERA all well in the market and rightly so. Race most definitely doesn’t end there, but will be having something on a Waterhouse trifecta or the three roving in the first four. Slight lean here to KIMBERLEY STAR at the tidy $5+ (most operators) with our man Blake Shinn aboard to find the right spot from barrier 10.
SUGGEST: KIMBERLEY STAR (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the Group 1 George Main and as usual a super field assembled. KERMEDEC is our early Cox Plate tip, and is all the rage here, however personally think $2.70+ is rock bottom odds in this field, especially if the rain comes as expected. A must for multies/savers, but given we’re following for the Cox Plate, happy enough to watch him go around and focus on stablemate ROYAL DESCENT @ $4.80+ (UNIBET) who we think might be more suited to the mile right now and obviously the wetter the better, as we all remember what she did in the Oaks on a bog track. Can also stake a claim for KIRRAMOSA to cause a boil-over at $17+ (SPORTSBET), not as well suited here at WFA, but loved the way she hit the line last start and looks to be over her injury issues. Suggest a dabble on the Epsom and/or Caulfield Cup prior to this week’s race as a big run will result in price tumbling in from current quotes. Include LUCIA VALENTINA in quaddies/multiples.
SUGGEST: ROYAL DESCENT (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, KIRRAMOSA (EACH WAY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Group 2 Hill Stakes over 2000m.doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, and especially if the track is suiting those swooping from behind/out wide, there’s always the risk of an over-compensation in a race like this, allowing those on/closer to the pace to pinch race winning breaks on the turn. Have a feeling that might happen here, hence COMPLACENT may be too good again as the leader here @ $3.20+ price. Big chance and possibly one for multies/savers but the price is rock bottom for mine. Instead think better value currently lies with BOHEMIAN LILY @ $18+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET) who we’re willing to give another go, as well as CHANCE TO DANCE @ $14+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). Main danger to those above, MAGIC HURRICANE who we would have been all over if not WFA as big test to carry the weight for the first time on a softer/heavier track. Another for savers/multiples.
SUGGEST: BOHEMIAN LILY (EACH WAY) @ $18+, CHANCE TO DANCE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (COMPLACENT, MAGIC HURRICANE / F / F/ BOHEMIAN LILY, CHANCE TO DANCE) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And now to the lucky last and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper again. Fingers crossed they’re swopping as we predict or else a re-think of suggestions is required. Best value here HOLLYWOOD BOUND @ $11+ (SPORTSBET), great value, and at those odds will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of *CASINO DANCER* @ $41+ also with SPORTSBET and that those odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **HOLLYWOOD BOUND** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *CASINO DANCER* (EACH WAY) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
**BEST VALUE**: DUPE ‘EM @ $10+, HOLLYWOOD BOUND @ $11+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: CASINO DANCER @ $41+
Average odds of $11.55+ per suggested runner.