26 September 2015 (Racing at Caufield - Cashfield)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2015

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.05, currently a GOOD (3) track.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield after we raced here last weekend when the rail was out +9M. Back to the TRUE, always the chance of them coming wide, however with the GOOD track expecting/hoping for an even track, with early races and speed maps your best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 for the mares over 1100m. Tricky opener with plenty of legitimate winning chances, however as always the primary aim is to identify who we consider to be the best value / over the odds. This most definitely comes in the form of AFLEET ESPRIT here at $21+ (BET365) who was good first up and we know her best is good enough for this class of race. given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other we like despite the shorter odds is PITTSBURGH FLYER @ $6.50+ (BETSTAR, LUXBET, BOOKMAKER, LADBROKES) who we have had luck with in the past at odds (March 14 at Flemington we were keen when she saluted at $14) and happy to play again with the red hot Hope/Shinn combination. Can also make a smaller case for PILLY’S WISH at $17+ with SPORTSBET.

SUGGEST: **AFLEET ESPRIT** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, PITTSBURGH FLYER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, PILLY’S WISH (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Inglis Cup over 2000m and how this is worth $250k is mindboggling. The good news about the lack of depth here is there’s only a few legitimate winning chances and unfortunately the bookies have this one right. MURAQABA is the top pick here @ $3.20+ (SPORTSBET) and suggest a WIN only play here unless you can find each way odds, which would be a surprise. Next best, main (only?) danger KANSAS SUNFLOWER @ $3.70+ (most operators), suggest simply playing around the two in order provided.

SUGGEST: MURAQABA (WIN) @ $3.20+, KANSAS SUNFLOWER (WIN) @ $3.70+, MULTIPLES (MURAQABA, KANSAS SUNFLOWER) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 3: Now for an 1100m dash with some very fast horses ready to fly. As you’ll know, we are always looking for big juicy odds, on most occasions double figures+, but sometimes value and/or top picks are simply the ones in the market, as we find here. We’re a big fan ofCRAFTINESS and don’t see a reason to jump off after tipping first up. $2.90+ (BET365) is getting short after heavy early backing, but think he’ll be too quick for these and has gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard. Suggest WIN only play. Interestingly/key guide is Shinn electing to ride CRAFTINESS over second favourite SABATINI stabled by family in the Lee & Shannon Hope yard. If they go crazy up front, then race sets for SABATINI, so don’t rule out, but doubt they will and as a result, main danger is KURO @ $5+ (SPORTSBET), who we suggest for savers/multies/first four strategies/etc.  

SUGGEST: CRAFTINESS (WIN) @ $2.90+, MULTIPLE (KURO/CRAFTINESS) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 4: Listed event over the famous 2400m distance at Caulfield. At first glance, this looked easy but the more we look, the trickier this becomes. FOUNDRY obviously a key scratching after opening favourite. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE is a money muncher and as explained last time, one we have been simply happy to resist each and every time in Australia, which means we’re on top as up until now, always massive unders. But is $4+ unders here in this field??? More tempting than ever before, but happy to stick with steering clear and restict to savers/multies/first four strategies. Best value here is LORD DURANTE @ $13+ (like them back up in distance after dropping the previous start). The other I like is MAYGROVE @ $21+. Other key danger SHENZOU STEEDS who is flying this prep and might run with first four strategy with he and EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, into our two suggestions for 4th.

SUGGEST: LORD DURANTE (E/W) @ $13+, MAYGROVE (E/W) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, SHENZOU STEEDS/F/F/LORD DURANTE, MAYGROVE) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude and what a super race, including what looks a red hot bunch of 3YO fillies this season. STAY WITH ME we obviously want to see run well as we’ve included/suggested for some long term multies for the Thousand Guineas. PASADENA GIRL is the other who returned sensationally first up and hard to beat here. The two are sure to be hard to beat here. But this runs much deeper than the main two. Really like the way SUPER CASH finished last start behind Petits Filous and as a result think she can both be a chance here at $12+ (BET365), but also suggest having a play for the Thousand Guineas at the current juicy price of $67+ with BET365.

SUGGEST: SUPER CASH (EACH WAY) @ $12+, SUPER CASH (THOUSAND GUINEAS – E/W/MULTIES) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (STAY WITH ME, PASADENA GIRL / F / F / SUPER CASH) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: Now for the boys’ equivalent and the Caulfield Guineas Prelude also over 1400m. These races always a chance of throwing up a surprise with lightly raced runners improving first time in town or similar, but not so sure this will happen this time…or so we hope. READY FOR VICTORY is exactly that, and we’ve refrained from backing in recent times, despite very good form, however think the time is now ripe for him to return to the winner’s stalls @ $3.60+ (SPORTSBET). Suggest a WIN only play here. Next best is BON AURUM @ $9.50+ (UNIBET) whose win last time was no fluke after doing a lot of work in the run and still being too good for several here (including ODYSSEY MOON who we were keen on, but was very poor late after looking a huge chance with 200m to go). BON AURUM has a tricky gate here, but happy enough to take the punt at the price knowing he can overcome a bit of extra work if forced to. Finally, something smaller on METALLIC CROWN @ $21+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) who we were on last start at a nice price and may be able to go forward and potentially dictate a moderate tempo, and if this occurs could be hard to catch.

SUGGEST: READY FOR VICTORY (WIN) @ $3.60+, BON AURUM (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, METALLIC CROWN (E/W - SECONDARY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 7: Now for the big one, the Group 1 Underwood Stakes over 1800m. Decent/strong speed expected with THE CLEANER push forward from gate 1 and other speed runners also drawn towards the inside. As a result, a pre-requisite for the winner here is they will need to be tough, regardless of where they look to settle in the run. As a result, we’re going to play around the three that we expect to settle at the rear here (obvious risk is they get too far back), but given their prices happy to gamble. The trio is led by **WEARY** @ $16+ (SPORTSBET) who obviously loves it wet, but this is often mistaken for ‘is a wet-tracker, who doesn’t handle the dry’. Incorrect and more than capable at this level on a firm track. Was absolutely flying late last time when it was all over. Will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Next is DANDINO, now with Weir who was luckless last time and will get pace to suit here @ $21+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). The last of the trio is MAGICOOL, who similar to DANDINO was a total forgive run last time after seeing nothing but bum all the way up the straight. Query at this top level, but is going as well as ever, Queensland seemed to do the trick with him and at $41+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) worth a play. In terms of dangers, there are plenty mainly FAWKNER and THE CLEANER, but definitely not dismissing CONTRIBUTER who may also settle further back here and look to storm late.

SUGGEST: **WEARY** (E/W) @ $16+, DANDINO (E/W) @ $21+, MAGICOOL (E/W) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (FAWKNER, THE CLEANER, CONTRIBUTOR / F / F / WEARY, DANDINO, MAGICOOL) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Big field and plenty of pace here with the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clark over 1400m. Speed map looks fierce and as a result, keen to play around a bunch of those settling further back and looking to swoop late. CHARMED HARMONY will roll along up front and try to get them all off the bit, which is the risk, but confident they will swoop late and reel in the leaders. A lot of the pace drawn wide, so expect them to fly early. Hardest to beat UNDER THE LOUVRE @ $6+ (SPORTSBET) who we’ll play on a WIN only basis, ahead of FAST ’N’ ROCKING @ $26+, PETROLOGY @ $35+ (LUXBET), then call us crazy but suggest a peanut each way on *WE’RE GONNA ROCK* @ $301+! (SPORTSBET, BET365) Not every day you have something on a 300/1 pop who you think’s a sniff and as a result need to make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers who fall in the similar category however just not as good value are AMICUS @ $16+ and LUCKY HUSSLER @ $14+. Play around with multiples/first fours as first four could pay anything!

SUGGEST: UNDER THE LOUVRE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $6+, FAST ‘N’ ROCKING (E/W) @ $26+, PETROLOGY (E/W) @ $35+, *WE’RE GONNA ROCK* (E/W) @ $301+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 9 /F /F /13, 18, 19) FIRST FOUR (1, 9 /8 /F /13, 18, 19) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with an open handicap over the 1700m. Tricky finish with pace in the race and also how track is playing by the last key. Good thing is we will know if there is any advantage/bias in the track and be able to modify selections if required. Speed map currently moderate and as a result thinking the on pacers might be hard to catch. As a result, looking at playing around JACQUINOT BAY @ $15+ (who has been very good to Dungeon followers in the past), KENJORWOOD @ $9+ (normally unders, however is currently a price that is most definitely value) and ADORABEEL @ $31+ (BETSTAR, LUXBET, BET365, BOOKMAKER, LADBROKES, PALMERBET).

SUGGEST: JACQUINOT BAY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, KENJORWOOD (EACH WAY) @ $9+, ADORABEEL (EACH WAY) @ $31+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a crazy $30.40+ per suggested runner!!!

** BEST VALUE **: AFLEET ESPRIT @ $21+, WEARY @ $16+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: WE’RE GONNA ROCK @ $301+

#happypunting