26 September 2015 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2015

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.71, meaning we’re currently looking at a SOFT (5) after 4mm of rain overnight and rain looks to have stopped at 7am. As a result, every chance we get an upgrade to a GOOD (4) later on.

RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Rosehill after racing here 2 weeks ago (September 12, 2015) when the rail was +2M. Expecting no disadvantage on pace, closer to the fence, but as always pace/tempo key. Be sure to monitor early races for early guide to any potential biases.

 

Race 1: Very tough start to the day. Throw a blanket over the field, luck in running key. At this stage prefer to simply observe. As always, keep a close eye on social channels in case we get keen on anything closer to race time.  

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: PRESS STATEMENT should be winning this, however do you want to be taking $1.40+? Given, he’s up against some quality lightly raced gallopers progressing from 2 to 3 years of age, always a chance of a few improving as a 3YO hence will refrain from the shorts, however could be worth a play as an anchor in some multies.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Very tough again, with a small, even field. In saying that, best value definitely lies with the rank outsider here in SASENKILE @ $23+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET). Gai’s duo hard to beat in BOHEMIAN LILY and KING KINSHASA, while AMELIE’S STAR is the relatively unknown quantity who could be hard to beat also. As a result, prefer to steer clear of the faves and dabble on the outsider.

SUGGEST: SASENKILE (EACH WAY) @ $23+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: FLAMBOYANT LASS looks to have this at her mercy. Hard to beat @ $2.60+ with most operators and should be winning. Short, sharp and straight to the point. #nosejob.

SUGGEST: FLAMBOYANT LASS (WIN) @ $2.60+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 5: Another tricky affair on a card at Rosehill which looks quite tricky, so tread carefully. Doesn’t look to be a head of pace on paper, however as always with these races involving more lightly races youngsters, always the risk of many going forward regardless of whether they have done so in the past or not. In saying that, happy to play around two who we expect to be right on the pace and if left alone could be hard to run down at very juicy odds. The two in question are **CLASH OF CLANS** @ $26+ (BET365) and *OVER THE AIR* @ $34+ with www.bet365.com.au also. Main dangers for first four strategies/multiples include VANBRUGH, GOLD AMBITION and MAN OF CHOICE. Given odds, will make **CLASH OF CLANS** a BEST VALUE bet of the day, and *OVER THE AIR*, a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **CLASH OF CLANS** (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *OVER THE AIR* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 6 / F / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6:  And now for the Group 2 Golden Pendant for the fillies and mares (only mares on this occasion) over 1400m. CATKINS was super fresh after being 10kg over her prime racing weight, but that didn’t matter as she gobbled a good field up with some ease. Today she is apparently 20kg heavier and as a result willing to risk at the very short odds, however given her heart you can never discount and will be hard to beat. ARABIAN GOLD has always been a fave of ours, and gets her chance today to win a second successive Golden Pendant after causing a boilover last year over CATKINS. Expecting the two greys to be right in the finish again, however given the odds discrepancy ($5.50 v $1.70) between the two, need to lean towards ARABIAN GOLD at the better odds. Looking further, also suggest a play on TWO BLUE @ $26+ (most operators) which we consider big overs here. May not have the class, but should get the right run, is ever consistent and at $26+ worth the gamble to find out.

SUGGEST: ARABIAN GOLD (WIN) @ $5.50+, TWO BLUE (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 7: Now for a Group 2 Shannon Stakes over 1500m and another smaller, yet very competitive field. Like two here which we find hard to split but ever so slight lean to NINTH LEGION @ $5.50+ (most operators) just ahead of VASHKA @ $6.50+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET, PALMERBET). The slower they go up front the better, with many chances poised to get back and the two we like should be right on the pace. Super, competitive race. Happy to play around the two mentioned.

SUGGEST: NINTH LEGION (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, VASHKA (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: And another wide open affair in the lucky last, a benchmark 85 over 1400m. MUSIC MAGNATE most definitely the one to beat, however rock bottom odds at $4+ and as a result will leave for savers/multies/etc. Instead, like a few here at odds again on the basis that horses on pace are getting their chance. Would normally be a no brainer, given the rail position, however with a chance of rain, things can quickly change. In saying that the following are all big odds, so worth the gamble. **SOMETHING SECRET** on top at $14+ (most operators) after winning for Dungeon followers even better odds last time. Over the odds and nor respected again despite great form and as a result will make another of our BEST VALUE bets of the day. Also like NEVAGOTAVOTE @ $18+ (most operators) and *HARRY HOTSPUR* @ $41+ with LUXBET, SPORTSBET, BET365, CROWNBET and UNIBET. At the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. First four stategy with MUSIC MAGNATE winning a no brainer here.

SUGGEST: **SOMETHING SECRET** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, NEVAGOTAVOTE (EACH WAY) @ $18+, *HARRY HOTSPUR* (E/W) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 7, 8, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $18.27+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SOMETHING SECRET @ $14+, CLASH OF CLANS @ $26+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: HARRY HOTSPUR @ $41+, OVER THE AIR @ $24+

#happypunting