ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2015
Racing at RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.96 meaning we're currently on a SOFT (7) after heavy rain leading up. Was a HEAVY (9) yesterday, so on the improve, however track walkers stating that track is heavier just before the turn.
RAIL: +8M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Randwick after we raced here two weeks’ back on August 22, when the rail was out +6M. As always, tempo key, but be sure to monitor early races also (along with speed maps) for best guide, especially given the softer track which was actually heavy 24 hours ago. Hoping for an even track but given the rail position and heavy track on the improve, always a risk of a bias one way or the other.
Race 1: Very difficult start with a benchmark 83 over the 2000m. Very even field and the bookies look to have nailed the market here with no apparent value standing out at this stage. We will re-assess closer to jump time and as usual will communicate via our social channels should we get keen on anything and make a suggestion, Keep an eye out. Regardless of whether investing or not, be sure to keep a close eye on the race for any apparent guide as to how the track will play especially on the heavier track.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: We now move onto a benchmark 80 over the mile and little easier. Pace and tactics key, with only a moderate tempo up front at best, means favourite WINE TALES will most likely be leading luck again and as a result, at this stage looking to steer clear of this one again. WINES TALES might be too good, but not willing to take the short odds given the luck normally involved in following her. Could be one for your multies if keen. Be sure to watch and learn from opening races, regardless of investing to hopefully get a better guide for later races.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: Group 3 for the 3 year olds over 1400m. We just missed with VOILIER last time and sure to be in this again, however actually steering clear of that race won by Shards (which includes several runners here) and exploring a couple of different form lines instead. Hardest to beat and top pick here is KIMBERLEY STAR @ $3.40+ (LUXBET). Notice a few ‘experts’ are taking her on so hopefully that reflects in the betting, however suggest a primary WIN bet here. From there, then like two others are double figures odds for secondary investments in METALLIC CROWN @ $9+ (SPORTSBET) and TAP THIS @ $17+ (BET365). Looking to play around these in multiples.
SUGGEST: KIMBERLEY STAR (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.40+, METALLIC CROWN (WIN/EW - SECONDARY) @ $9+, TAP THIS (WIN/EW – SECONDARY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Always tricky with the now 3YO fillies returning. Some guesswork needed as to which are the ones who will improve as 3YOs and alternatively which struggle to make the transition and have already shown their best as 2YOs. Market in these races always a good guide, so be sure to keep a close eye, especially closer to jump time. Note the scratching of ENGLISH who would have been right in the market here for Gai Waterhouse and Blake Shinn. Shame, as we would have taken on, so we get deflated prices here on those we like. Interestingly Shinn elected to ride ENGLISH over SERENE MAJESTY who absolutely brained them last time at Canterbury (5.3L) for the always competitive Snowden stable. If the track looks to be favouring leaders/in pacers then SPEAK FONDLY becomes harder to beat. Right now she is the obviously one to beat and dungeon followers cashed in last time at a nice price, however much shorter today, extra pressure up front and growing query of how she goes out of the gates. $2.40+ is okay, but only that, so on the presumption track is even (potentially even favouring those off the fence) think OTTOMAN is the best value here and suggested primary play @ $6.00+ with SPORTSBET. Has trialled well, and James McDonald elects to ride over stablemate CALAVERITE which you would expect. SPEAK FONDLY the one for savers/multies and as mentioned if favouring on pace early/we get better than the current quote, may look to suggest a stronger play. Wary of SERENE MAJESTY as mentioned and PERIGNON first up.
SUGGEST: OTTOMAN (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Joe Pride looks set to dominate here with BALL OF MUSCLE ($2.80+) who has never missed a place in 13 starts (12 of 13 starts has finished top 2) and CRAFTINESS whose record is not far behind (8 of 9 starts top 2, only once unplaced). Money has come for the favourite BALL OF MUSCLE but we want to be on CRAFTINESS at the better odds of $4.80+ (PALMERBET) which is a super price in our humble opinion. Slight query the 1000m is a touch short, but at the price it’s the clear value of those in the market and hopefully can get the chocolates. SHIRAZ has also experienced a lot of support and is flying (looking for 4 straight wins this prep) into $3.80+ while ATMOSPHERICAL also right in the market @ $5.50+. Any upgrade of the track will only enhance chances, query on the softer track. *HAPPY GALAXY* is one we’ve always had some time for in very good races and many may be surprised to hear finished second in a trial (slowly run I must add) on August 17 splitting two handing gallopers in Bounding and Boban if you don’t mind. As a result, must have a dabble at 100/1+ (SPORTSBET) and as a result will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.
SUGGEST: CRAFTINESS (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, *HAPPY GALAXY* (EACH WAY) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
QUADDIE (added at 2:59pm): 1, 3, 7 / 1, 2, 14, 16 / FIELD / 6 #happypunting
Race 6: Now for arguable the most anticipated race of the day, the Group 2 Chemlsford Stakes over the famous Randwick mile. Numbers dominated by the Waller stable, the return of HARTNELL after trialling like an absolute superstar on the back of a brilliant first Australian prep and PORNICHET who made headlines before even stepping onto the track this prep when Shinn decided to be on her instead of FIRST SEAL. Pace and tactics key as there looks to be absolutely no pace on paper here. This sometimes results in some surprises with runners going forward unexpectedly to take advantage of this which can make things tricky. As we always stress, in situations like this, the gun jockeys are worth their weight in gold. And Dungeon followers will know the top three jockeys going around in our opinion are Shinn, Bowman, Mcdonald with daylight to fourth. ROYAL DESCENT to settle closer again after saluting, PORNICHET just outside her or possibly choose to lead alone and expect HARTNELL to be ridden positively also. Main concern with HARTNELL is the potential to possibly over-race as he seems to be absolutely bursting out of his skin and they look set to walk here. There looks to be 4 standouts here which include the three mentioned above (HARTNELL, ROYAL DESCENT, PORNICHET) and the only one I haven’t mentioned in KERMEDEC. Might hold fire on who we suggest (if any) as a standout top pick (will look to monitor early races for better guide) however simply suggest keeping things simple and playing the multiples with the four standouts here. KERMEDEC the riskiest of the 4 given may need to settle further back off the slow pace or risk being posted wide from a tricky gate. Keep a close eye on social channels for any updates closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: MULTIPLES (HARTNELL, ROYAL DESCENT, PORNICHET, KERMEDEC) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Was keen on MESSENE until the scratchings came out, hence the need to re-assess. Race has obviously changed complexion completely this morning on the back of big exclusions including FIRST SEAL, STRAWBERRY BOY (critical from speed map perspective) and FAMOUS SEAMUS. Not easy, bit of guesswork here with many runners first up after decent breaks. As a result, monitor markets for guides closer to jump time as well as actually seeing them in the yard for apparent fitness levels, etc. Several here with bigger fish to fry later. We’re obviously a huge fan of ARABIAN GOLD and still wonder what could have been with the Doncaster after an untimely injury 2 weeks from the race, after we made a bold early autumn claim at a huge price. Will appreciate the sting out as always, and trials have been great for the new Waterhouse yard. The one to beat here, but not overly enthused about the $4.20+ price given the key outs. Definitely one for savers/multies/quaddies but as usual might explore some better value alternatives instead. Think **HOOKED** can go forward from the wide gate and if so can give a great sight here @ $21+ (SPORTSBET). At the price will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Then think the inside barriers could allow a few others to get in the best positions and potentially cause a boil over, these includE GYPSY DIAMOND ($31+ with LUXBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET), ahead of MALICE ($51+ with SPORTSBET) and SENSE OF OCCASION ($41+ with most operators). Stagger in the order stated above and inject into multiples for hopefully some big dividends.
SUGGEST: **HOOKED** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $21+, GYPSY DIAMOND (E/W) @ $31+, MALICE (EW) @ $51+, SENSE OF OCCASION (EW) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Tricky finish, with pace/tactics key here. Prefer to wait and see how track is playing prior before making a decision as to whether to invest in the lucky last. Shinn has decided to ride BOHEMIAN LILY over several key dangers here, so on face value looks the obvious, but not as clear cut as it may seem at first glance so will hold fire for the time being.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Update at 4:36 AEST): Randwick - Race 8 (for all): Our summary today, said BOHEMIAN LILY may be the way to go in the lucky last but we weren't sure how the track would be playing. Now that we know, those on pace look to be advantaged and as a result the $4+ on offer (LUXBET) looks the logical play in the lucky last. #happypunting
**BEST VALUE**: HOOKED @ $21+
**BEST LONGSHOT**: HAPPY GALAXY @ $101+
Average odds of $28.55+ per suggested runner.