16 January 2016 (Racing at Flemington - Headquarters)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SATURDAY, JANUARY 16, 2016

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.93, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to FLEMINGTON (HEADQUARTERS) after last racing here 2 weeks ago on New Year’s Day when the rail was out +3M. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given indifferent weather in Melbourne the past week.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds down the straight, hence as usual a bit of guesswork with several first starters and others having shown ability in initial in short careers to date. The market seeing things just as we are with BRINGAROO hardest to beat, ahead of HEY DOC, while QUEEN MAGDALENE looks a key danger on debut. As a result, a watch and learn at this stage given little/no value on offer. Do think BRINGAROO could be above average so if keen (query today is straight first time and firmer track), suggest dabbling on the Blue Diamond @ $51+ (BET365) where he will be back to his home track.  

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

SUGGEST (FUTURE): BRINGAROO (EACH WAY – BLUE DIAMIOND) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 10%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 90 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. Pace/tactics key with minimal pace on paper here. A race winning move could come by one of the runners here electing to lead despite usual racing pattern. MISS SOFTHANDS is in super form and looks the one to beat here at $2.80+ (BET365). Can settle right on the pace and be hard to catch. Suggest a primary WIN only play here. Best value in the form of WHISTLE BABY @ $11+ (SPORTSBET) who can be ridden more positively from barrier 1. Secondary each way play here. Main dangers three of those first up from spells in the form of DIG A PONY, ITERATION, BLENDWELL and WRITTEN. Be sure to take not of any notable money moves for any of these runners.

SUGGEST: MISS SOFTHANDS (WIN) @ $2.80+, WHISTLE BABY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 6, 7 / 5 / F / 1), (2, 4, 6, 7 / F / 5 / 1), (F / 2, 4, 6, 7 / 5 / 1), (F / 5 / 2, 4, 6, 7 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 1400m for the three year olds and happy to jump back aboard NICCOCO after we were on two starts back when 3rd at a tidy price. Has drawn terribly past two and as a result been forced to be ridden quietly, however from barrier 5 can be ridden more aggressively and if so, should give a great site @ $6+ (UNIBET) on an each way basis. Main danger TWISTING TYPHOON.

SUGGEST: NICCOCO (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 9), (F / 3 / F / 9), (F / F / 3 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Rain Lover handicap over 2500m and a good competitive affair. Think there’s a standout here value wise with **PURPLE SMILE** who gets the right weight swing (3.5kg for 2.9L defeat last time) here against key rival DANJEU and hoping can turn the tables here at a juicy $16+ price with LUXBET. Looks great each way value and given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers QUICK STRIKE, LEICA DAY (talk about ‘flying’…going for 4 wins on the trot), LUCQUES (who also gets good weight swing here on DANJEU) and DANJEU himself who is in great form despite weight increase.

SUGGEST: **PURPLE SMILE** (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 5 / 2, 3, 4, 5 / F / 6), (2, 3, 4, 5 / F / 2, 3, 4, 5 / 6), (F / 2, 3, 4, 5 / 2, 3, 4, 5 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 78 over 1200m and arguably the toughest race of the day, as the market suggests. Several coming out of two different formlines/races, with the MV reference (won by Sirbible) arguable a touch stronger than the Sandown reference (won by Onerous)? Time will tell. Then you’ve got others, led by the fave STAR STEALER who comes from another formline altogether. Playing around a few at big odds here coming from each of the form references mentioned above. First is BOOMWAA, who has been solid since joining the Henry Dwyer yard and the stable have always been very clear that he wasn’t 100% fit and would take a few runs to hit full fitness. Well that time has now come, is proven up the straight and has been competitive in better grade than this. Handy claim from Michael Dee (2kg) puts him on top for us in an open affair at a very juicy $14+ (BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES). The other we like at a huge price is *CYCLONE ANDY* who was caught wide, without cover at the rear at Sandown last time (not the place to be), but loved the way he hit the line late under little riding/pressure. May be looking for longer, but at $67+ (SPORTSBET) more than happy to play. Also, want to a play given current odds on *BEL SEAL* who was caught wide most of the MV 1200m last time without cover for the majority which is always tough. Can improve here at $41+ (most operators). Given the odds, will make our BEST LONGSHOTS of the day. Main dangers led by LIMINAL, JUDGES, MASTER SOMMELIER and SIR MASK. Keen to take a few first fours (small percentages) here as the potential dividends could be anything.

SUGGEST: BOOMWAA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $14+, *CYCLONE ANDY* (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $67+, *BEL SEAL* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 6, 9 / 1 / F / 3, 7), (4, 5, 6, 9 / F / 1 / 3, 7), (F / 4, 5, 6, 9 / 1 / 3, 7), (F / 1 / 4, 5, 6, 9 / 3, 7) (4, 5, 6, 9 / F / 4, 5, 6, 9 / 1, 3, 7), (4, 5, 6, 9 / 4, 5, 6, 9 / F / 1, 3, 7), (F / 4, 5, 6, 9 / 4, 5, 6, 9 / 1, 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: Now for the Inglis Dash over 1100m, down the straight for the three year olds. Made trickier with several significant gear changes to many key runners with blinkers or winkers first time for HELLBENT, APRIANO, TOKYO TYCOON and MOSSIN’ AROUND, while blinkers again for MADDIE MOO MOO. Makes it tricky when we haven’t seen them with the gear change before on race day. Tough race, with GOLD SYMPHONY the key returning after a sensational first prep in the winter. Be wary of any notable betting moves and could be worthy of a saver whether it be in a multi or one our quaddie leg. In saying that, prefer to play around two that originate from north of the border. First, great odds on offer for one we were on last time in MOSSIN’ AROUND who ran a great 2nd at double figure odds to the more than classy Magna Rossa. That form I think can stack up here at a generous $14+ price with LUXBET, BET365, CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. Then, also like the fact Matthew Dale is heading down with one, has a great strike rate in Sydney and would expect he has been patient waiting for the right opportunity here. The one in question is BITBURG @ $9.50+ (LUXBET) and expecting a bold showing. Main dangers GOLD SYMPHONY, TOKYO TYCOON and HELLBENT.

SUGGEST: MOSSIN’ AROUND (EACH WAY) @ $14+, BITBURG (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 5, 12 / F), (roving 4, 5, 12 / F), (roving 5, 8, 12 / F), (1, 4, 8 / F / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7 (updated at 3:58pm AEDT): Now for the Listed Chester Manifold over 1400m. Be interesting if the rail is the place to be or not, we’ll know by race 7. Again, a race with not a great deal of pace, which should suit those closer/on the pace as long as there is no noticeable bias. If they happen to be swooping/coming down the middle of the track off the fence, then the chances of SARAJEVO increase significantly, especially given he has drawn 9 of 9. If on pace/closer to the fence is the place to be, then TUDOR comes into play at a juicy $16+ price. At this stage, I’m going to hold fire and wait until we get a better guide from the first few races, before updating suggestions here. Keep a close eye on social pages to be informed as soon as updates are made. -> Track seems to be playing fairly, hence suggest plays TRIED AND TIRED and TUDOR. Main dangers for multiples GENERAL GROOVE and DANCES ON STARS. Concede ZUPACHARGED and SARAJEVO are right in this, but noth little/no value so happy to take on somewhat. 

SUGGEST: TRIED AND TIRED (WIN) @ $4.20+, TUDOR (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / 2 / F / 9), (1, 5 / F / 2 / 9), (F / 1, 5 / 2 / 9), (F / 2 / 1, 5 / 9), (1, 5 / 1, 5 / F / 2, 9)  (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Open Piping Lane Handicap over 2000m with the star of the show SIGNOFF now out. Good race, where pace/tactics will be key as well as how the track is playing. Looks to be solid enough tempo up front so all runners should get their chance. Sticking with **METAPHORICAL** @ $7.50+ (LUXBET) on the each way, after just missing for Dungeon followers last time in a blanket finish when SIGNOFF swooped late. Should get the right tempo up front and as a result should be hitting the line well. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger SECOND BULLET who saluted for us last time. As long as track is playing fairly and/or on pacers are given their chance, then suggest a saver with SECOND BULLET one out in a quaddie and/or as a multi leg.

SUGGEST: **METAPHORICAL** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (8 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with the Open Tauto Handicap down the straight over 1000m. ROUGH JUSTICE is flying and saluted for Dungeon followers last time, however willing to take on today at the weights with three who finished just behind last time, getting the right weight swing to turn the tables here. Each of BELESRON @ $5+, TANSY @ $10+ (most operators) and DANGER CLOSE @ $13+ (most operators) can turn the tables and given the better odds will suggest standalone bets on the latter two both at nice double figure odds. Then, suggest playing BELESRON in your savers/multies and even a one out final quaddie leg. He’s the main danger, ahead of ROUGH JUSTICE and PINK PERFECTION.

SUGGEST: TANSY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $10+, DANGER CLOSE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 5, 7 / F), (5 / 4, 7 / F / F), (5 / F / F / 4, 7), (2, 6 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $17.65+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: METAPHORICAL @ $7.50+, PURPLE SMILE @ $16+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BEL SEAL @ $41+, CYCLONE ANDY @ $67+

  #happypunting