16 January 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, JANUARY 16, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK on another rain affected Sydney surface (most overrated weather in Australia) with the penetrometer reading 5.96, currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK again after racing here on New Year’s Day when the rail was out +9M. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the softer track. Chance runners will start to come off the rail as the day goes on.

 

Race 2: Next is for the two year olds over 1100m and given the soft track, as you would expect a bit of guesswork here. Think we might just leave this one and simply watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 1400m for the females and think the safer option here is to simply run with the quinella of MISS ROYALE and SELITA who should gap the rest. 5kg swing to MISS ROYALE says she ‘should’ turn the tables, however SELITA was held up for a fair bit of the straight, so the margin probably should have been further than 0.6L. IN A WINK and SHUTTER BUG should run 3rd and 4th if you prefer to play trifectas/first fours.

SUGGEST: QUINELLA (MISS ROYALE, SELITA), FIRST FOUR (4, 6 / 4, 6 / 1, 7 / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 4 (added at 2:23pm AEDT): Benchmark 92 over 2000m. Will keep this short and sweet, think LOOPHOLE wins @ $3.30+ with SPORTSBET. Should get the right run off the pace and given how track is playing should have no issues peeling wide and running down towards the centre of the track. Wet conditions no concerns. Suggest a WIN only play. Main danger the stablemate DANCE OF HEROES, right down in the weights with gun hoop McDonald aboard. Definitely prefers it dry, but an improving track and they have elected to run with solid enough support.

SUGGEST: LOOPHOLE (WIN) @ $3.30+ FIRST FOUR (5 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5 (added at 2:23pm AEDT): Class 2 over 1400m and sticking with one who we have been one twqice at juicy odds and has just missed running a place on both occasions. Last chance today for VAN HALEN at $19+ with BET365. Main dangers stablemates ISTANBUL and TIGER BY THE TALE (both with gun hoops McDonald and Bowman aboard), in addition to the Matthew Dale stabled favourite in HERMOSA BEACH.

SUGGEST: VAN HALEN (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 6 / F / F / 3), (F / 1, 5, 6 / F / 3), (F / F / 1, 5, 6 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 72 over 1200m and a tough race. Pace/tactics key with decent pace on paper. Think pace best suits PAINTED FIRETAIL who is the one to beat, but short enough at $3.60+. Instead prefer the better value on offer for WIDE ACCLAIM @ $11+ with SPORTSBET. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: WIDE ACCLAIM (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / 7 / F), (6 / F / F / 7), (F / 6 / F / 7), (F / 6 / 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

QUADDIES (added at 3:38pm AEDT):

6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 / 2, 11 / 6

3, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 / 2, 11 / 6

 

Race 7: Summer Sprint 1000m and a very tactical affair, given majority normally race on the pace and only 5 runners. Best ride probably wins, little value given the large number of scratchings, so at this stage might just watch this one.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 8: Benchmark 85 over 1400m.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 9: In the lucky last, a benchmark 78 over the mile, think **MYDREAM** gets everything to suit, a wet track, rail off, those off the pace getting their chance, hence represents best value here at a tidy $11+ price tag with SPORTSBET. BET365 and PALMERBET. At the odds, will make our BEST VALUE of the day.

SUGGEST: **MYDREAM** (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

QUADDIES (added at 3:38pm AEDT): 

6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 / 2, 11 / 6

3, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 / 2, 11 / 6

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: MYDREAM @ $11+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: N/A

  #happypunting

#happypunting