ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JANUARY 2, 2016
Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.59, so currently looking at a GOOD (4).
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY after last racing here two weeks and 1 day ago on Friday, December 18, 2015 when the rail was also in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, with no major disadvantage to be off the fence as they straighten. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the warm weather conditions in the lead up.
NOTE: Must admit not overly enthused about the card as a whole, with many small, even and competitive fields, hence difficult to identify great value. Several races with no third dividend given insufficient numbers which is a shame, but we play nonetheless, so just keep this in mind when investing. Level of confidence in the card as a whole not as high as usual.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 over 1000m and a tricky little affair, despite the small numbers. Strong pace on paper, with the three in single figures in the market all expected to be on pace. Will be interesting if any decide to be ridden a touch more quietly which I believe would enhance their chances. For this reason, happy to have a smaller plays on BELLOMO @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) and CERTAIN ELLE @ $21+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) who will hopefully settle off the pace and get the last crack at them out wide. BELLOMO gets in nice enough at the weights for run two back against key rival HEATHERLY. Main danger HEATHERLY and CERTAIN ELLE. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: BELLOMO (EACH WAY) @ $15+, CERTAIN ELLE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / 4, 5 / F), (2 / F / F / 4, 5), (F / 2 / 4, 5 / F), (F / 2 / F / 4, 5), (F / F / 2 / 4, 5), (F / F / 4, 5 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Benchmark 84 over the mile and in this instance there doesn’t look to be much pace on paper. As a result, think MARLI MAGIC @ $7+ (SPORTSBET) can dictate terms up front and give them something to catch, assuming the track is giving leaders/those on fence their chance. Rail is TRUE hence hopefully we get some guide from Race 1, but doubtful given very different speed map. Main danger SIEGESTOR, but doesn’t end there, 7 of the 8 runners in single figures. Very tricky, most runners have claims. Respect any money for AZURITE first time in Australia. Note, no third dividend again.
SUGGEST: MARLI MAGIC (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / 6 / F), (F / 7 / 6 / %), (F / F / 7 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 70 over 1500m and a good tempo on paper. Thought SAGACIOUS MISS would run well at Flemington (Friday) and this is no harder. As a result, keen at $3.70+ (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET), should settle in the back half of the field and have the last crack at them late. Suggest a primary WIN only play, then an each way secondary each way dabble on YOUNG NICOLA @ $8.50+ (BET365), who we’ve been aboard at odds this prep and is in great form. Gets the right weight swing from the fave here MY OBSSESSION, who we were looking to take on given the weight situation, but has since been scratched. Note, no third dividend again, which is quite disappointing. You can throw a blanket over the rest in another very competitive race, despite the small numbers.
SUGGEST: SAGACIOUS MISS (WIN) @ $3.70+, YOUNG NICOLA (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / 5 / F), (F / F / 5, 6 / 5, 6), (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: We then move to a benchmark 78 over 1000m and there looks to be a solid tempo up front here again, so pace/tactics key. Think STAR STEALER is above average and can hopefully settle just behind the leaders and be in a position to peel 3-4 wide as they straighten. $2.30+ (BET365) short enough, but also decent enough to play on a WIN only basis. Throw a blanket over the rest. It’s either STAR STEALER or no idea.
SUGGEST: STAR STEALER (WIN) @ $2.30+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 5: Now for the feature for the three year olds over 1200m and they look set to go very hard up front, hence again setting things up for one off the pace. LOVE DAYS is all the rage but can’t get too excited about $1.70+ when normally is on pace and would mean a speed battle from a wide gate which is not a great recipe. May be simply too good, but too short in my opinion so happy to risk. Instead happy to run with TOKYO TYCOON on an each way basis @ $7+ (SPORTSBET, TAB SPORTSBET). Looks above average, is hopefully over issues since first prep and fit enough to fire first up. Main dangers ANTELUCAN and LOVE DAYS. And we finally sneak in three dividends with 9 runners.
SUGGEST: TOKYO TYCOON (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9 / F / F / 8), (F / 1, 9 / F / 8), (F / F / 1, 9 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 over the famous Moonee Valley 2040m circuit. Pace/tactics key with several in the market drawn awkwardly in a race devoid of speed, so looking for those on the pace to be given their chance here. Slight lean **SPEED GONZALES** @ $9+ (LUXBET) who despite some others is close to guaranteed to be on the pace with Jackie Beriman able to place the gelding exactly where she wants to. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, given some slim pickings to choose from. Main dangers LEICA DAY, GENERAL JAMES and NOW’S THE TIME.
SUGGEST: **SPEED GONZALES** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 8 / F / F / 12), (F / 1, 3, 8 / 1, 3, 8 / 12), (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 78 over 2500m and this is very tough. Many, many chances and pace/tactics key with not a great deal of pace on paper. Was keen on a couple in WAXING and TRIPLE GOLD, but they are no longer here, hence need to look elsewhere. Have ended up with PACKING EMPIRE @ $4.80+ (BET365) who broke through last time and after a freshen up can drop back from the 3000m, have to trust David Hayes has fitness levels under control. Then a host of main dangers, led by BLING DYNASTY, KELKEA and BAJOUR….but doesn’t end there, runs very deep.
SUGGEST: PACKING EMPIRE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 8 / F / F / 2), (F / 4, 5, 8 / F / 2), (F / F / 4, 5, 8 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: We finish with another benchmark 78, this time over 1200m. And sticking with **BADAJOZ** @ $5+ (BET365) who we liked last time and ran a drum and now gets right down in the weights, and won’t know himself with 54kg! 56kg is the previous lowest weight he’s carried, so will most definitely appreciate the relief. Given the odds (note BET365 offering better than most), will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Another race which runs very deep after that. BEST LONGSHOT of the day comes in the form of *SIR MASK* here first up at $41+ (SPORTSBET). Main dangers CLEVADUDE and DUIBIO, but again doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **BADAJOZ** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5+, *SIR MASK* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 17 / F / 11), (F / F / 17 / 11), (12, 13 / 17 / F / 11), (roving 11, 13, 17 / F), (roving 11, 12, 17 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $11.30+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SPEED GONZALES @ $9+, BADAJOZ @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SIR MASK @ $41+