ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JANUARY 23, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 6.06, currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to RANDWICK again after racing here last week when the rail was in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the wet conditions.
Race 1: We start with the three year olds over 1000m and a very tricky affair with six of the seven runs first up, with the majority trialling very well in recent times, not to mention the unknown softer conditions for the majority. Disappointed by the scratching of SOOBOOG as I was keen to take on, hence now must settle for shorter odds. Looks to be decent tempo up front, so although I’d prefer a wider gate than 1, happy to have a small play around LE ROMAIN @ $4.60+ on a WIN only basis. Should appreciate the expected pace up front, while the experienced Glyn Schofield should have space to work the gelding off the fence and hopefully come around them late. Main danger TOP SCORE who has looked impressive both on debut and at the trials. Note, no third dividend given insufficient numbers.
SUGGEST: LE ROMAIN (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 4 / F / F), (F / 2 / 4 / F), (2 / F / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: No easier with the two year olds over 1000m, given the limited exposed form full stop, let alone on the softer track. Wanted to play MADDISON AVENUE at any old price, but unfortunately out, being a Manhattan Rain, expected improvement on the heavy track. As a result, not super keen as those in the market do look the ones to beat, but not with ample confidence to play standalone. As a result, will play a few First Fours only around TWIST TOPS and SNOW SURRENDER who seem decent enough value. Concede SCARLET RAIN hard to beat, but happy to risk somewhat at the very short $2.70+ price.
SUGGEST: FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 7, 14 / F), (7, 14 / 7, 14 / F / F), (7, 14 / F / 7, 14 / F), (F / 7, 14 / 7, 14 / F) (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 3: Listed Carrington Stakes over 1400m with a small, yes very competitive field assembled. Assuming we’re on a SOFT (7) or worse, then going with the proven mudlark in ZIN ZAN EDDIE @ $4.40+. The wetter, the better. Throw a blanket over the rest. Again, disappointed by the scratchings as was top pick regardless now in from $7 to $4.40. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: ZIN ZAN EDDIE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 86 over 1200m and looking to steer clear of this one. All runners with claims, pace and tactics to be key. Best ride could prove the difference.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 5: Class 2 over 1200m and don’t think there’s too many legitimate winning chances here. Given the better odds on offer, top pick and suggested play here is the top weight in ALL SUMMER LONG @ $4.80+ (SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET). The obvious concern is the big weight (60kg), however has carried decent way to victory before and as much as this is a Saturday metropolitan meeting, we need to quickly remind ourselves that this is a class 2 event. Main danger most definitely the favourite in ATOM EVE who gets in a massive 9kg lighter than our top pick with 51kg after the 3kg claim from Nisbet and despite no wet track form, is from a proven wet track sire in I Am Invincible. Suggest to include in all savers/multies and even a one out early quaddie leg.
SUGGEST: ALL SUMMER LONG (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 1), (F / 6 / F / 1), (F / F / 6 / 1), (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Fillies and mares benchmark 78 over the famous Randwick mile. We were on **MYDREAM** last week and as much as I don’t like bagging jockeys, don’t think we were helped out all with Ms J Taylor aboard last time. Hoping Samantha Clenton works better with a handy 2kg claim also. The wetter the better for this girl and suggest an each way play at $10+. Given the odds will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger PIONEERING. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **MYDREAM** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / 4 / F), (F / 5 / 4 / F), (F / F / 4, 5 / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 83 over the mile. Could be the last chance, but CAUTHEN’S POWER @ $4.00+ (SPORTSBET) should be beating this lot, as long as he gets through the going. As a result, be sure to hold fire until closer to jump time and ensure there is some level of support for the gelding. Be wary if there is a distinct betting drift. Adamant he goes better woith gun hoop James McDonald aboard and it wasn’t long ago that we cleaned up with him, when he bolted in at odds, in a better race than this. Main dangers ARCHEAN, EMBLEY and KHALID.
SUGGEST: CAUTHEN’S POWER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 9 / 3 / 4, 8, 9 / F), (4, 8, 9 / 3 / F / 4, 8, 9), (4, 8, 9 / F / 4, 8, 9 / 3), (4, 8, 9 / 4, 8, 9 / F / 3), (F / 4, 8, 9 / 4, 8, 9 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Benchmark 78 over 1000m. Not overly keen on the race at this stage, hence looking to steer clear for the time being. Keep an eye on social channels for any updates, should we get keen on anything for any reason.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 77 over 2000m. Keen on LOVING HOME here at $3.80+ with BET365. No third dividend so we should get a decent place dividend so happy to go each way.
SUGGEST: LOVING HOME (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Average odds $5.27+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MYDREAM @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: N/A