ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, JANUARY 9, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.2, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +5M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to CAULFIELD with the rail out +5M, after being out +2M on Boxing Day (December 26, 2015). Hoping for an even track, where all runners are getting their chance, pace dependant, however given the dry conditions and rail position, expecting no disadvantage to be closer to the pace and the fence for that matter. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We kick off proceedings with the two year olds over 1000m and too much guesswork for mine here with most unseen at the track and minimal proven trial form to be overly confident about. At this stage prefer to steer clear, watch and learn.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Benchmark 84 over the mile. KANIANA is winning and despite the big steps in grade, think she can make it four in a row. Suggest on a WIN only basis @ $3.20+. Main dangers ANAPHORA (who continues to find one better after looking the winner on several occasions this prep) and YELLEN who has led past two and confident that’s not the way she needs to be ridden.
SUGGEST: KANIANA (WIN) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / 6 / F / F), (F / 4, 5, 6 / 4, 5, 6 / F), (F / 4, 5, 6 / F / 4, 5, 6), (F / F / 4, 5, 6 / 4, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3 (updated at 8:32am AEDT): Benchmark 90 over 1800m and a small but competitive field assembled. Was keen on GARUD who has unfortunately been scratched race morning, hence leaves us with **MASTER RESET** @ $6+ (SPORTSBET), who is also a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers TASHBEEH and RADICAL. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **MASTER RESET** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / F / 4 / F), (F / 3, 6 / 4 / F), (F / 3, 6 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 over 1800m and think FLYING LIGHT @ $4.20+ (SPORTSBET) can secure a much overdue victory after a very consistent prep in group class races where he has equited himself very well. Suggest on a WIN only basis. Even bunch elsewhere, where I think most others have claims regardless of odds.
SUGGEST: FLYING LIGHT (WIN) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Benchmark 78 over 1200m and there looks to be decent speed on paper here, hence pace/tactics key. Slight lean to CHASE THE HORIZON @ $4.40+ (most operators) who just missed for us last time at juicy odds when second to rival here again in GOLDEN SPIN. Gets a 2kg swing which should be enough to turn the tables here, assuming the right run, which he should get from Ben Melham from gate 2. Main dangers MAGNA ROSSA and GOLDEN SPIN despite the weight swing, both in good winning form.
SUGGEST: CHASE THE HORIZON (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F), (F / 1, 3 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Benchmark 70 for the three year old fillies over 1400m. Slight lean GIGGLY @ $6+ (SPORTSBET) who should be able to lead and dictate up front, at nothing more than a moderate tempo at worst. Secondary play MISS CLOONEY who is drawn poorly but might be able to slot in just behind the leader with some luck. If so, great value @ $13+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) after being luckless for followers last time at a similar price. Main dangers JACQUI’S JOY (tempo the main query as will get back), SINGLE NOTE (drawn to get a nice run) and MAJESTIC LASS who’s on the short backup from New Year’s Day, down in grade, hard to beat but rock bottom odds.
SUGGEST: GIGGLY (WIN/EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, MISS CLOONEY (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 9 / 3, 7 / F / 3, 7), (F / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 7 / 3, 7), (F / 3, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 78 over 1400m and again not a great deal of pace on paper, so looking at playing around two who should right on the pace, arguably sitting 1-2 and hopefully that’s where they’ll stay. Slight lean **THE NEW BOY** @ $7+ (BET365) who has been in better grade past few and has not been far away at all. Will appreciate the drop in grade and give them something to catch here. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want to have a play around KOROIBETE first up for Moody @ $13+ with SPORTSBET. Good enough if wound up so be sure to monitor betting closer to jump time to try/see in the yard to help gauge fitness levels. Main dangers BEL RHYTHM and BABY DON’T CRY.
SUGGEST: **THE NEW BOY** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, KOROIBETE (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4), (F / 2, 10 / 1, 4 / 1, 4), (F / 1, 4 / 2, 10 / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Benchmark 90 over 1200m and DUKE OF BRUNSWICK looks hard to beat here at $2.80+ (SPORTSBET). Decent pace on paper, so will most likely sit just behind the leaders from barrier 3 and look to stake claim as they straighten. Above average galloper who should be too strong here and suggest on a WIN only basis. Value with stablemate *MIGHTY LIKE* @ $26+ (BET365), who prefers longer, but can be ridden more positively from the good gate and run a cheeky race at odds. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers KIEVANN and HERSTORY.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN) @ $2.80+, *MIGHTY LIKE* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9 / 7 / F / 1), (F / 6, 9 / 7 / 1), (6, 9 / F / 7 / 1), (F / 7 / 6, 9 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 9: And we finish with an open event over the mile and a tricky finish to the day. Slight lean to STAR ROLLING returning to the winning stalls for the first time in a while @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET). Blowout hope to *COMMANDING TIME* @ $41+ (most operators) who can improve from first up run, assisted by a massive 7.5kg drop in the weights (60 to 52.5kg) after the claim. Given the odds will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers VOLCANISH ASH, BASS STRAIT and SADAQA.
SUGGEST: STAR ROLLING (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *COMMANDING TIME* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 8 / 1, 6 / F / 1, 6), (4, 7, 8 / F / 1, 6 / 1, 6), (F / 4, 7, 8 / 1, 6 / 1, 6), (F / 1, 6 / 4, 7, 8 / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $10.91+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MASTER RESET @ $6+, THE NEW BOY @ $7+,
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MIGHTY LIKE @ $26+, COMMANDING TIME @ $41+