ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY OCTOBER 1, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.01, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK and finally a decent track in Sydney. Rail out +3M and hoping for an even track. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Listed Gimcrack for the two year olds over 1000m and with a full array of debutants, always some guesswork involved, although we have trial form to work from. Keen on one here at a very nice price in the form of **MADAME MOUSTACHE** @ $16+ with SPORTSBET. Has been pushed along in two nice trials and reckon Waller is sick of not being good with 2YOs early and as a result looks to have put the relevant fitness levels into this filly in an attempt to snag an early one. Given the odds and the competitiveness of the rest of the day (doesn’t get easier), happy to make an early BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger JORDA who looked ultra-impressive and looks hard to beat, but short $2.20+ price tag.
SUGGEST: **MADAME MOUSTACHE** (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 8), (F / 5 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for the two year old colts and geldings, all unraced, but simply too much guesswork. It’s probably CONDOR HEROES (brilliant in trial, smashing field by nearly 10L) easily, or who knows? Given the short price, I’m thinking we steer clear, watch and learn. Be sure to note that the majority of runners here have gear on, hence there is always the chance of significant improvement, regardless of what you have seen in trials. Watch and learn.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: Group 3 Craven Plate and only a very small field assembled, which has resulted in very little value on offer. IT’S SOMEWHAT hard to beat, but can’t get excited about $1.60+, similarly SPIRITJIM at $3+. As a result, a watch and learn for mine at this stage.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 4: Listed Dulcify for the three year olds, run over the mile (1600m). And this is a tricky little affair with pace/tactics set to be key. Slight lean OCTAVIAN AUGUSTUS at $3.80+ with CROWNBET. Main dangers NEMRUD, CALABASAS and EARTH.
SUGGEST: OCTAVIAN AUGUSTUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 2 Roman Consul for the three year olds over 1200m and simply can’t go past ASTERN - ‘Best horse rule’. $1.65+ on offer with most operators and who knows, given the decent opposition, we could get better. Regardless the price is good enough in my opinion and a good anchor for multies. Want a small win / larger place play on NIKITAS who continually finds bad luck this preparation but draws better here and should if nothing else get a much better run in transit. At $81+ with most operators a juicy place dividend is worth eyeing off. Main danger the obvious in CAPITALIST.
SUGGEST: ASTERN (WIN) @ $1.65+, NIKITAS (SMALL WIN / LARGER PLACE) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 6: And now for the first of three Group 1s, starting with the Flight Stakes for the three year old fillies over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). Keen on **SEZANNE** here at a tidy $9+ with most operators in a small (currently only 6 starters) field. Underrated filly, unlucky behind stablemate Foxplay last time who is now short fave for the Thousand Guineas. Keen to play there and given odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of main dangers stablemate AWOKE (stiff last time when we were on) and YANKEE ROSE (who will be hard to beat, but rock bottom odds/no value at $1.90+).
SUGGEST: **SEZANNE** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / F / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for today’s Sydney feature, the Group 1 Epsom Handicap also over the famous Randwick mile (1600m)…and what a cracking race! Quality runs deep and many legitimate winning chances, but what that does mean is there is value on offer. Slight lean HAURAKI who has done nothing wrong, one of few to push Winx and set to be hard to beat at a better than expected $7.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Then want plays on two at very juicy prices who won’t know themselves with featherweights and great winning chances given price tags. The two in question are stablemates VANBRUGH at $21+ (most operators) and TORGERSON @ $26+ (most operators). Main dangers PALENTINO, MCCREERY and MACKINTOSH, ahead of HAPPY CLAPPER, FABRIZIO and LE ROMAIN. Big list, but great race! Be sure to box the Waller runners who have been set for this and get in with featherweights.
SUGGEST: HAURAKI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, VANBRUGH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, TORGERSON (EACH WAY) @ $26+, TRIFECTA (boxed 8, 9, 11, 12), FIRST FOUR (boxed 8, 9, 11, 12), (1, 8, 9 / 2, 11, 12 / F / 2, 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And the final Group 1 of the day is the Metropolitan, run over 2400m. Another cracking race, which runs very deep in terms of legitimate winning chances. Finding it hard to split two at the top in WHO SHOT THEBARMAN @ $8.50+ (PALMERBET) who has obviously had strong bac king given we suggested for long term multies last week for the race @ $13+. The other is ALLERGIC @ $8+ (PALMERBET) who we have had a lot of luck with in recent times and gets in with the featherweight of 51.5kg. Then, also want a secondary play on the always underrated GRAND MARSHAL at the very juicy $31+ with BET365. Actually gets in well in the weights, even when compared to our equal top pick in WHO SHOT THE BARMAN. Main dangers the Waller trio of JUNOOB, ANTONIO GIUSEPPE, SACRED MASTER.
SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, ALLERGIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, GRAND MARSHAL (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 12 / 1, 3, 8 / F / 1, 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with the Group 2 Premiere Stakes over 1200m and another ultra-competitive affair which runs deep. Going to play around a few at massive prices, despite conceding that many in the market are hard to beat, but will leave for multies, quaddies, and similar. Those at odds I want to play around start with GOOD PROJECT @ $17+ with each of LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Then, a couple more speculative on two who are capable but the query is whether their best in behind them. The two include *FAMOUS SEAMUS* at $51+ (BET365) who ran super last time second up, and *BOSS LANE* @ $81+ with SPORTSBET and BET365, who hasn’t been far away but needs to lift in this grade. Given the odds will make the duo our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main dangers led by OUR BOY MALACHI, KAEPERNICK, SOUTHERN LEGEND and ENGLISH.
SUGGEST: GOOD PROJECT (EACH WAY) @ $17+, *FAMOUS SEAMUS* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, *BOSS LANE* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 11, 12, 13 / 6, 7, 9 / F / 6, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds a juicy $25.88+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MADAME MOUSTACHE @ $14+, SEZANNE @ $9+,
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: FAMOUS SEAMUS @ $51+, BOSS LANE @ $81+