15 October 2016 (Caulfield Cup Day racing at Cashfield)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2016

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer 5.32, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield for the final day of their week long carnival and the rail brought out +6M, after being in the TRUE position both last Saturday And midweek Wednesday. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however not expecting any major disadvantage to be on close to the rail, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the three year old fillies, in the mypunter.com plate over 1400m. There doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper here and with the rail out +6M, hoping that those on pace and close to the fence are not disadvantaged at all, pace dependant. As a result, looking to play around those closer to the pace, led by **SKYLIGHT GLOW** @ $5.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Comes out of top 3YO filly form lines through Global Glamour, Yankee Rose and Foxplay and with Bowman aboard looks hard to beat at what should hopefully be each way odds. Barrier 12 to hopefully be offset by an apparent lack of pace on paper and most importantly a gun hoop aboard in Bowman. Bowman rode ANOTHER BULLSEYE last time who Dungeon were on at 50/1 who just missed a drum, running 4th. A key rival here, but Bowman has elected to jump ship. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Best value elsewhere with SWAMPLAND @ $19+ (SPORTSBET) who is up in grade, but untapped and the other is *WANT TO ROCK* @ $41+ with most operators. Went back last time and hit the line well in a good race, however for the reasons outlined above, hoping they go forward as she has done at most starts. Given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger the obvious in SYLPHEED who is the one to beat, but rock bottom ‘red figure’ odds at $1.95+.

SUGGEST: **SKYLIGHT GLOW** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, SWAMPLAND (EACH WAY) @ $19+, *WANT TO ROCK* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 3, 4, 10 / F / 3, 4, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Next is another event for three year olds, this time the Listed Gothic Stakes for the colts and geldings, also run over 1400m. Have been suggesting **NIKITAS** in much tougher races than this at massive prices, hence although the price is nothing like the 50/1+ that has been on offer, $8.50+ (WILLIAM HILL) is good each way value here in much lesser grade. Given the each way price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on another at juicier odds in PEACOCK @ $26+ with SPORTSBET. Main dangers ACATOUR, INSIDE AGENT, MORTON’S FORK and CURVATURE.

SUGGEST: **NIKITAS** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, PEACOCK (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 6, 7 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 / 2 / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Alinghi Stakes, a Listed event for the fillies and mares over 1100m. Very competitive affair as illustrated by the market, with half the field at single figure odds. All those in the market, all in this up to their eyeballs. Ever so slight leans towards SUPER CASH @ $4.80+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR) and CHLOE IN PARIS @ $8.50+ with BET365. SUPER CASH is one we have always rated very highly and looks to have come back arguably better this prep, while CHLOE IN PARIS is the one down in grade after racing in red hot Group 1 Moir last start. Hard, hard race. Too many dangers to specify.

SUGGEST: SUPER CASH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, CHLOE IN PARIS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Group 3 Ethereal for the three year old (3YO) fillies over 2000m and this race doesn’t run so deep in terms of quality, however the key is predicting who will run the 2000m out strongest. Slight lean BELLA SORELLASTRA @ $7+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BETSTAR, CROWNBET) who hit the line brilliantly from the rear last time behind Serenely Discreet. As a result, confident she’ll run the trip, while there is some more guesswork involved with others. Main dangers led by MOQUEEN and SEBRING DREAM.  

SUGGEST: BELLA SORELLASTRA (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F), (1, 2 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Group 3 Ladbrokes Classic for the three year olds over 2000m. Another very competitive race, and interestingly doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper. Slight lean THROSELL @ $8+ (BET365) who had issues last time, so simply put a line through the run. We were on last time, so don’t get our money back despite documented issue, however hopefully we get it back here. Also, a smaller play ODEON @ $15+ (BET365) who looks the one over the odds. Main dangers HIGHLAD, GOOD STANDING, INFERENCE and WINE BUSH who looks to be tracking beautifully for the Derby. A definite option for your longer term multies.   

SUGGEST: THROSELL (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, ODEON (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 6, 7 / 3, 9 / F / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Group 3 Coongy Cup over 2000m. IT’S SOMEWHAT looks the one to beat and should get a lovely trail from barrier 1 @ $2.60+ (UNIBET) and happy with a WIN only suggestions given current odds. Then, happy to give the old fella THE CLEANER a chance here at $13+ (BET365). Main dangers MAURUS and VANBRUGH.

SUGGEST: IT’S SOMEWHAT (WIN) @ $2.60+, THE CLEANER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7 (updated at 8:15am AEDT due to scratchings of VIBRANT ROUGE, TELOPEA): Now for the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes for the mares over 1400m. Not sure how you can go past TYCOON TARA who looks to have everything in her favour here from barrier, to expected tempo, to distance, to weight (not penalised for recent wins) and most importantly white-hot form. Wanted to get her beat given the price ($3+ with BET365) however the more you look, the more you find reasons to stay aboard. Main dangers FIRST SEAL (the class) and DANISH TWIST (super first up).

SUGGEST: TYCOON TARA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8 (minor update at 8:15am AEDT due to scratching of SET SQUARE): Now for the main event, the Group 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m, and to be honest it doesn’t scream the brilliant field we are normally accustomed to given it is arguably one of the world’s best handicap events over the mile and a half. In saying that, we’re here to comment from a punting perspective and not on the quality of animal we have running around. Actually, have a query on one of the usual best lead-up races before the Caulfield Cup, and that’s the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. Normally a great guide, but I’m wary this year, given Hartnell smashed the field and hasn’t even bothered rocking up, although that makes next week’s Cox Plate all the more better. In saying that, JAMEKA was one of few who wasn’t disgraced behind Hartnell, hence the only one I want to entertain from the race itself. That, then leaves the internationals who have dominated our staying events for several years now, those coming down from Sydney and those coming from other lead ups in Melbourne. And of those groups, don’t see any reason to jump off the internationals, especially as markets have them decent value given the usual unknowns associated with travel, acclimatising, etc. Top pick for mine is SIR ISAAC NEWTON at $14+ with CROWNBET. Loved the final lead-up and importantly all reports are he has settled in well and looks to be working at close to his peak. Next pick is SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD who won the Metropolitan impressively and importantly should get the gun run from barrier 5 and be given every possible chance. Class/ability is the query, however at $17+ happy to have a gamble on this guy running the race of his life. Finally, want something on longshot *PEMBERLEY* @ $51+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers JAMEKA, SCOTTISH, ARTICUS, EXOSPHERIC, REAL LOVE and SACRED MASTER. Finally, have something small on a cheeky Ciaron Maher quinella with JAMEKA and PEMBERLEY.

SUGGEST: SIR ISAAC NEWTON (EACH WAY) @ $14+, SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (EACH WAY) @ $17+, *PEMBERLEY* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15 / 5, 8, 17 / F / 5, 8, 17), QUINELLA (11, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint over 1000m. HELLBENT all the rage and rightly so, but is now into rock bottom odds and little value into red figures $1.95+ with most operators. He is low flying, no doubt about it, but expecting to get back on a day that I’m hoping might favour those closer to the pace, pace dependant. For this reason, going to take the punting on two others in the form of OUR BOY MALACHI @ $5.50+ (most/all operators) who was great first up and although not a huge fan of dropping from 1200m -> 1000m, the Hawkes stable are astute enough to know what they’re doing. The other is WILD RAIN @ $6+ (most operators) who is simply underrated and comes out of red-hot Group 1 Moir where placed behind Extreme Choice and beating home a handy one by the name of Chautauqua. Both set to make their own luck up front and give HELLBENT and co something to seriously run down. Main danger the obvious in HELLBENT, while the big watch horse is LANKAN RUPEE who hasn’t run for 371 days, so be sure to respect, especially if there is any monetary support.

SUGGEST: OUR BOY MALACHI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, WILD RAIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 2, 4 / F / 2, 4), (1, 5 / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 10: And we finish a bumper day with the Group 3 Moonga Stakes over 1400m. A couple of shorties in the market in the form TAKEDOWN and VOODOO LAD, the latter the one I personally think will be the hardest to beat and in this instance our main danger. However, as always we strive to identify the best value and as a result prefer to play around two others at double figure odds. Firstly DURENDAL @ $13+ with CROWNBET and BET365 who was close behind the very talented THE QUARTERBACK last time, and although 1400m is probably his limit, think he can get the right run in transit for gate 3 and be hard to catch. The other is LUCKY LIBERTY @ $20+ with UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Looked set to be a potential star early days before major injury issues came into play. Looks to be over them and both runs since a 554 day spell have been very good, in turn ready for a crack at some black type back in town. Big ask in a very good race, but definitely good enough at a price. Main danger VOODOO LAD, yes there may be other ‘dangers’, but happy to leave as the sole ‘main danger’ for first four/multiple purposes.

SUGGEST: DURENDAL (EACH WAY) @ $13+, LUCKY LIBERTY (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (12 / 9, 16 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.16+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SKYLIGHT GLOW @ $5.50+, NIKITAS @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: WANT TO ROCK @ $41+, PEMBERLEY @ $51+

#happypunting