15 October 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY OCTOBER 15, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 4.97, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK and another dry track, think that’s three weeks in a row, incredible. Rail back in the TRUE position after being out +6M last week. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds and although MADAME MOUSTACHE should be hard to beat, not overly excited by the skinny $2.1+ price tag with some guesswork with others. As a result, prefer to play through running double(s) and/or multies instead of the risk associated with a large standalone investment.

SUGGEST: RUNNING DOUBLE (MADAME MOUSTACHE / FABRIZIO) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 93 over 1600m and quite simply FABRIZIO should be winning here, but don’t expect any glamourous odds. As stated above, let’s play through MADAME MOUSTACHE to start the day, but would be a good option for multi anchors and/or one out early quaddie leg.  

SUGGEST: FABRIZIO (MULTI ANCHOR LEG) @ $1.50+ (CONFIDENCE 75%)

 

Race 3: Next is a benchmark 71 over 1600m and BEZEL is all the rage at red figure odds. Concede a great chance, but little/no value in my humble opinion and as a result keen to look elsewhere. Have landed on a couple at double figure odds, starting with **EARTH** @ $10+ (most operators) who has progressed nicely and looks ready for a good metro win, which will hopefully come today. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other is BRING ME THE BLING at a juicy $16+ with UNIBET. Main dangers BEZEL, POWER LAW and CROSS STITCH.  

SUGGEST: **EARTH** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, BRING ME THE BLING (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 6, 7, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Class 2 TAB Highway over 1200m. PUMPKIN PIE looks the one to beat here at $2.80+ with BET365. Suggest a WIN only primary play, in addition to a secondary play on *TORIO’S DELIGHT* who is the one over the odds at $21+ with most operators. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest in a competitive affair should we miss with our suggestions outlined.

SUGGEST: PUMPKIN PIE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, *TORIO’S DELIGHT* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 83 over 1400m and this is very tough as the market illustrates with 6 of the 7 runners at single figure odds. Slight lean INVINZABEEL @ $4.60+ with BET365. Main danger BULLRUSH, but pace/tactics set to be key in addition to how the track is playing. Throw a blanket over the rest, many legitimate winning chances. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: INVINZABEEL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / 4 / F), (F / 2 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Listed Tattersalls Club Cup to be run over 2400m and another small, yet tricky affair with pace/tactics set to be key. Slight lean to the old boy JUNOOB @ $4.20+, ahead of DANJEU who I think is the one over the odds at $13+ with SPORTSBET, CROWNBET and BET365. Main dangers SENSE OF OCCASION, CAPED CRUSADER and ALEGRIA. Note, a field of 8, hence all 3 place dividends apply.

SUGGEST: JUNOOB (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, DANJEU (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5 / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes to be run over 1200m. Keen on **EL DIVINO** here who I think is the ‘best horse’ in the race at $5+ with most operators. Drops in grade after taking on the best three year olds around (Astern, Omei Sword, Star Turn) at past couple and they are nowhere to be seen today. Looks to be a decent tempo up front, so can get a suck run behind them, peel around them on the turn and set to be hard to catch. Good each way value, and given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a secondary play on FARAWAY TOWN first up @ $11+ with most operators. Underrated galloper, who gets back and needs some luck, but hopefully gets pace to suit here. Main dangers SOUCHEZ, GUARD OF HONOUR and FOX TALES, but doesn’t end there.

SUGGEST: **EL DIVINO** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FARAWAY TOWN (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 6 / 2, 10 / F / 2, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is the feature, in the form of the Group 3 Nivision Stakes for the mares over 1200m and will keep this one simple with EGYPTIAN SYMBOL @ $2.80+ with WILLIAM HILL. Hopefully class can prevail and flies fresh. Main dangers the Snowden pair of NANCY and ARTISTRY.

SUGGEST: EGYPTIAN SYMBOL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.80+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 10 / F / F), (F / 2, 4 / 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with the Listed Lightning over 1100m and a cracking race to finish with, and running with one who has shown so much potential so far, and time to start seeing it in a big race. The one in question is SPEITH @ $4+ with BET365who would be looking to win/run very well here to earn a spot down in Melbourne for a big Spring sprint. Suggest a primary play, ahead of secondary play on *DECISION TIME* @ $67+ (SPORTSBET). Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers COOLRING, KINGLIKE and KAPERNICK, but another race which runs much deeper.

SUGGEST: SPEITH (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, *DECISION TIME* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8, 9 / 12, 16 / F / 12, 16) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $13.45+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: EARTH @ $10+, EL DIVINO @ $5+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: TORIO’S DELIGHT @ $21+, DECISION TIME @ $67+

 

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