2 October 2016 (Group 1 racing at Flemington)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2015

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.82, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.  

RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to headquarters (Flemington) with the rail out +9M. Expecting no major disadvantage to be closer to the pace/near fence, pace dependant. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: Two year olds down the straight, all debutants. Watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Listed event for the three year olds, and a tricky little affair. Need to go with **ZUNBAQA** @ $3.40+ with UBET and BET365. Coming out of what looks a high quality event last time and with the rail out +9M and an arguably easier affair, should be extremely hard to catch. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger STYLEMAN and we wary as always of the two Godolphin runners at the top of the weights in TRENCHANT and PEACOCK.

SUGGEST: **ZUNBAQA** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5 / 12 / F / F), (5 / 1, 3, 12 / F / 1, 3, 12) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Another Listed event for the three year olds over 1800m. Top pick THROSSELL @ $3.60+ with UBET, ahead of a couple at odds for secondary plays in *LORD MACAU* @ $31+ (most operators) and CAPTAIN DUFFY @ $21+ (BET365). Will make *LORD MACAU* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day given the price. Main danger HIGHLAD and WIN BUSH at a decent price also.  

SUGGEST: THROSSELL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, *LORD MACAU* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, CAPTAIN DUFFY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (7, 17 / 1, 5, 9 / F / 1, 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Group 2 Gilgai and UNDER THE LOUVRE should be hard to beat here at $2.80+ with most operators, suggest a WIN only play, ahead of THE QUARTERBACK @ $6.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Happy to spread stakes accordingly and play around the two.

SUGGEST: UNDER THE LOUVRE (WIN) @ $2.80+, THE QUARTERBACK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Group 3 Bart Cummings run over 2500m. Top pick ALMANDIN @ $2.70+ with UBET and BET365, who I suggest on a WIN only basis, ahead of value runner DANDY GENT at a very juicy $19+ with UBET. Underrated galloper who dungeon followers have had some luck with in the past. Main dangers EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, LUCQUES and ALOFT.

SUGGEST: ALMANDIN (WIN) @ $2.70+, DANDY GENT (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 9 / 3, 10 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: Group 3 Edward Manifold for the three year old fillies over 1600m. Tough race. Slight lean ELEONORA @ $5.50+ with most operators, but then want something at a couple at big odds. *ANOTHER BULLSEYE* @ $51+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365) and VON RICHTER @ $81+ with most operators. Will make ANOTHER BULLSEYE a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the three at the top of the weights in CHIPANDA, EXOCET and SERENELY DISCREET.

SUGGEST: ELEONORA (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *ANOTHER BULLSEYE* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, VON RICHTER (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 12, 17 / F / 5, 12, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes over 2000m. HARTNELL all the rage and rightly so, but very short odds given the quality field at $1.80+. If you’re super keen, suggest to play through multies and/or one out quaddie in order to minimise risk of a major standalone outlay. Personally, prefer to play around other at bigger odds. Primary play JAMEKA @ $5+ (UBET) who looks to have returned in career best form. Ahead of OUR IVANHOWE @ $15+ (CROWNBET, SPORTSBET) and SET SQUARE @ $18+ with BET365. The blowout hope SOFIA ROSA @ $51+ with CROWNBET and SPORTSBET. Main dangers HARTNELL and TALLY wide wider multiples.

SUGGEST: JAMEKA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, OUR IVANHOWE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, SET SQUARE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $18+, SOFIA ROSE (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 6, 7, 8, 9, 10), (4 / 9 / F / 6, 7, 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event of the day is the Group 2 Blazer Stakes over 1400m. Key scratching with EURO ANGEL out, while another I would have been keen on FRENCH EMOTION drawn poorly, which will make it tough, although helped by multiples scratchings who were drawn inside. Tough race, but have landed on **MANAGERESS** slightly on top at $8.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day, given the price. Also want something on CORONATION SHALLAN first up at $21+ who I’m hoping goes forward from a wider gate, with not a great deal of pressure on paper. Main danger METAPHORICAL, TELOPEA, FRENCH EMOTION and ROCKOLICIOUS.

SUGGEST: **MANAGERESS** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, CORONATION SHALLAN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (9, 11, 12, 14 / 4, 10 / F / 4, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: And we finish with the Listed Paris Lane handicap over 1400m. Slight lean SANTA ANA LANE @ $7+ with WILLIAM HILL. Then something at better odds on HOPFGARTEN @ $12+ (most operators) and LE BONSIR @ $36+ with BET365. Main dangers ULMANN, FEDERAL and TASHBEEH.

SUGGEST: SANTA ANA LANE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, HOPFGARTEN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, LE BONSIR (EACH WAY) @ $36+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 11 / 1, 9, 12 / F / 1, 9, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $20.05+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ZUNBAQA @ $3.40+, MANAGERESS @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: LORD MACAU @ $31+, ANOTHER BULLSEYE @ $51+

#happypunting