21 October 2016 (Group 1 racing at Moonee Valley)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

MOONEE VALLEY

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2016

 

We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY for their grand final weekend, with the penetrometer currently reading 4.51, however the forecast is for heavy rain to arrive. Currently still a GOOD (4).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail back to the TRUE position and given the forecast rain, assuming it arrives you would expect runners to be getting off the fence and potentially running on out wide. As always, be sure to watch early races (and most importantly the weather) for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with an open event for the three year olds and there looks to be a bit of pace on paper here and most importantly a bit of value on offer. Keen to play around HIGHLAND BEAT @ $10+ (WILLIAM HILL) and BRINGAROO @ $15+ with UBET and LUXBET. Both to settle off the pace and importantly both won’t be too disadvantaged by any rain that arrives. Main danger SHOWPERO

SUGGEST: HIGHLAND BEAT (EACH WAY) @ $10+, BRINGAROO (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 1, 7 / F / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Keen to see how track is playing, with no current suggested play. Be sure to keep an eye on social channels just in case we get keen on any others as the night progresses.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 3: Keen to see how track is playing, with no current suggested play. Be sure to keep an eye on social channels just in case we get keen on any others as the night progresses.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 4: Keen to see how track is playing, with no current suggested play. Be sure to keep an eye on social channels just in case we get keen on any others as the night progresses.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 5: Going with the class here in GOLDEN SPIN, the old ‘best horse’ rule. Has had some issues in recent times, however all reports is he’s back on track and ready to fire first up with a look at bigger and better things moving forward. Happy to look at a standalone play here, ahead of main dangers BROCKHOFF, RUNSON and ROCK ‘N’ GOLD.

SUGGEST: GOLDEN SPIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 8 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1500m and we’ve already stated earlier in the week that **SCHERZOSO** really caught the eye at ‘Breakfast with the Best’ and rapt with the juicy $21+ with SPORTSBET on offer. Excellent each way value and importantly also handles the wet should the rain arrive. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the night. The other I fancy here I SNAKE CHARMER at a tidy $6.50+ with most operators. Has won past two, handles the wet and drawn to get the gun run just behind the pace. Main danger RAGEESE who will just need a touch of luck from gate 2, the inside barrier the main concern.

SUGGEST: **SCHERZOSO** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, SNAKE CHARMER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1, 11 / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Manikato Stakes and call me crazy but taking on the champ somewhat here, a little wary of the inside gate (1), may just need to get back a little further than they would like which may prove the difference. If keen, suggest playing through multies and/or one out quaddie leg to minimise risk associated with large standalone investment. Instead, want to play around one who also worked super on Tuesday morning in **HOLLER** at a juicy $12+ with most operators. High class animal, likely to sit just outside leader (BUFFERING) or just behind and J Mac to peel wide and be hard to catch. Given the odds will make another juicy BEST VALUE bet of the night. The other I want a speculative play on is the terribly out of form *JAPONISME* @ $51+ with BET365. Can’t back on form which has been rotten, but we know his best is top class, loves the wet and did work well Tuesday morning. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the night. Main danger the obvious in the Grey Flash CHAUTAUQUA and ENGLISH.

SUGGEST: **HOLLER** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, *JAPONISME* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10 / 2, 7, 9, 10 / F / 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: We finish with an open event over 1200m and keen to play around two here. Top pick SIR BACCHUS will be hard to beat @ $2.50+ after being terribly unlucky last time, thankfully for Dungeon followers given we were on FAST CASH at double figure odds as our BEST VALUE of the night. Any rain will only enhance chances. Also, want something on *MAJESTIC DUKE* at a very juicy $35+ with SPORTSBET and LUXBET. Will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day given the odds. Main dangers SANTA ANA LANE, HANDSOME TYCOON and FAST CASH in a competitive finish to the card.

SUGGEST: SIR BACCHUS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.50+, MAJESTIC DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10 / 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $17.32+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SCHERZOSO @ $21+, HOLLER @ $12+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: JAPONISME @ $51+, MAJESTIC DUKE @ $35+,

#happypunting