ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY OCTOBER 22, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.91, hence currently looking at a SOFT (7) surface, however forecast is for 4-10mm.
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +4M, after being in the TRUE position last week. We’ve had a great run of late in Sydney with the better weather, and the track easy to read, however the rain has returned, and so to has the uncertainty around how the track will play. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 72 over 1400m and a small field of five assembled, hence pace/tactics set to be key. Can’t say I’m overly enthused by the race, but do have a slight lean for INVINCIBELLA (not to be confused with INVINZABELLA who saluted for dungeon followers last week @ $6.50). At odds of $3.80+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) happy enough to get the ball rolling in Sydney. Throw a blanket over the rest. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: INVINCIBELLA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is the Class 3 TAB Highway over 1000m. Ugly race and again unfortunately not overtly enthused overall, however do have a slight lean to LUNAR DUCHESS @ $6+ with most/all operators. Throw another blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: LUNAR DUCHESS (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 76 over 1000m. Better race than the first two, but not necessarily any easier with a very even field assembled. Think best value lies with TOP STRIKER @ $11+ with LUXBET, ahead of *EMMINENT DUKE* @ $31+ with most operators. Gets a handy 3kg claim and last run was better than it may read on paper. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers INVITATIONS, BROOKLYN STORM and NIETA.
SUGGEST: TOP STRIKER (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *EMMINENT DUKE* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 9 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1200m and unfortunately another very small field assembled, especially after 3 scratchings bringing the original field size of nine down to only six. Pace/tactics sure to be key as usual with such small fields. Not much between them, but given current market, slight lean SUSPENSE @ $5.25+ with UBET. Throw a blanket over the rest once again with very little between the rest of them, as reflected by the market with all bar one runner at single figure odds. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: SUSPENSE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.25+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is the open Filante Handicap to be run over 1400m and yet another race where we can’t even fill all three place dividends, on this occasions a final field of seven. Query on many runners here for various reasons, predominately the wet track which is a query for the two short favourites here in RELIGIFY and ROCK FOR THE LADIES. As a result, prefer to have a play on arguably the class runner here and run with the ‘Best horse’ rule in the form of **RED EXCITEMENT** first up at a tidy $9+ with WILLIAM HILL. Assuming relevant level of fitness, and goes well fresh. Like and will even make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: **RED EXCITEMENT** (EACH WAY) @ $9+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Now for a benchmark 81 over 2000m and a half decent field unfortunately decimated by scratchings to almost half the field, meaning we now are working with only a small field of six. Very disappointing support card in Sydney to the big day in Melbourne. Waller with 5 of the 6 runners. Top pick here is VASSAL @ $3.60+ with LUXBET and SPORTSBET who I think can book a trip down to Melbourne with victory here. Main dangers stablemates HIPPARCHUS and ENCOSTA LINE.
SUGGEST: VASSAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 75 for the mares over 1400m and a massive field of ten, at least means some better value on offer. Keen on **CIRCULAR** here at $4.60+ (UNIBET and BET365) who gets a very handy 3kg claim from Nick Heywood, hopefully enough to turn the tables on key rival SORT AFTER. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main (and probably only) dangers SORT AFTER, DAYSEE DOOM and HERMOSA BEACH.
SUGGEST: **CIRCULAR** (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 7 / 1, 3, 7 / F / 2), (1, 3, 7 / F / 1, 3, 7 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 84 over the mile (1600m) and plenty of chances in another competitive affair. Going to play around a few here at juicy odds. Firstly, think MEINER FRECCIA can run a race at a tidy $14+ (UBET, SPORTSBET, PALMERBET). Looking for a hat trick of wins and when last in town and last prep was running in similar races to this. Also think MULTIFACETS is a chance here at $16+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. Went well enough first up, goes well second up and over this distance and importantly has won on slower ground. Finally, blowout hope to *DANCE OF HEROES* @ $51+ with most/all operators. Chances are will need the run and need it longer, but excellent trial and as a result the 50/1+ is too good to leave alone. Given the odds (and lack of longshots across the card) will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, purely given the odds on offer. Main dangers HAPPY HANNAH, ESCHIELE and NOT A GYPSY. But doesn’t end there, deep race with plenty of chances.
SUGGEST: MEINER FRECCIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, MULTIFACETS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, *DANCE OF HEROES* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 13 / 1, 9, 12 / F / 1, 9, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and a tough finish, to a tough card, predominately given rain that has come down in past 24 hours. Minimal pace on paper, hence tactics will be key, could be a race winning move if one was to push forward and get a soft lead. Best value most definitely with NAT KING CU who may well be the leader and should give a great sight at a tidy $15+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Then, finally a play on DINGHU MOUNTAIN who looks well placed here @ $5.50+ with UNIBET and BET65. Main dangers MAN OF CHOICE, MON PERE and CHOICE WE HAD.
SUGGEST: NAT KING CU (EACH WAY) @ $15+, DINGHU MOUNTAIN (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7, 13 / 5, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $13.52+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RED EXCITEMENT @ $9+, CIRCULAR @ $4.60+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: EMMINENT DUKE @ $31+, DANCE OF HEROES @ $51+