8 October 2016 (Group 1 Guineas Day racing at Caulfield)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2016

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer 5.2, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield with the rail back in the TRUE position after it was out +13M last week, when they were getting off the fence. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the Listed Inglis Debutant Stakes, and interestingly we have a favourite who raced last week, hence obviously not a debutant. Anyways, plenty of guesswork as you would expect here, however unlike years past at least we have public trials to at least be able to assess. Most here have shown ‘something’ in order to have claims here and as a result, looking at a couple here at juicier odds in the form of COLUMBIA @ $15+ (WILLIAM HILL) and SUNQUEST @ $35+ (LUXBET). Both ridden quite quietly in trials, however both finished nicely without being stretched. Happy to run with a couple of smaller plays at odds here, as all runners wouldn’t shock.

SUGGEST: COLUMBIA (EACH WAY) @ $15+, SUNQUEST (EACH WAY) @ $35+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is the Group 2 Herbert Power, run over 2400m, with a small yet ultra-competitive affair. I think every runner in the opener has a chance, and think the same here, hence tricky start to a big card. In saying that, think **HOWARD BE THY NAME** @ $4.25+ (BET365) is set to return to the winner’s stall a couple of improving runs in against top shelf opposition. Gets up to the right distance and incredibly was placed 9 of first 9 starts, before being unplaced at past 3. 9 from 12 still brilliant, and time to get back into the mix and make it 6 wins from 16 starts. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger ASSIGN, with the Lloyd Williams’ stayers slowly but surely getting it together in time for the Cups. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: **HOWARD BE THY NAME** (EACH WAY) @ $4.25+, FIRST FOUR (4 / F / 2 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes for the three year old fillies over 1200m. Another competitive affair, and decent tempo expected up front. Slight lean STOP MAKING SENSE @ $8.50+ (most operators) who I expect to be hitting the line hard late, and will appreciate any strong tempo up front. Also want something on one at the bottom of the weights here in HEAR THE CHANT @ $10+ (BETSTAR, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU) who was impressive on debut and then a total forgive last time. Good sign, Dunn stays aboard, especially as I don’t mind main danger MY COUNTRY who you would think could have been ridden by Dunn with Shinn suspended, however he ends up on HEAR THE CHANT. The deciding factor for mine, hopefully we’ve pulled the right rein. Main dangers MY COUNTRY (as mentioned), SELENIA, MODERN WONDER and IN THE VANGUARD, but doesn’t end there.  

SUGGEST: STOP MAKING SENSE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, HEAR THE CHANT (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 10 / 11, 16 / F / 11, 16) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Listed Weekend Hussler Stakes run over 1400m. Concede CHETWOOD looks hard to beat, but rock bottom odds in my opinion here at $2.50+ and as a result would recommend saving for multies, one out early quaddie legs or similar to minimise risk associated with a large standalone investment, as there are legitimate dangers here. Instead think better value lies with RAGEESE @ $6.00+ (WILLIAM HILL) who seems to have found a new lease of life with Weir (not the first) and thought he went better than it seemed first up against the pattern, and was always set to improve second up and beyond. Then want something on ROUGH JUSTICE at a juicy $26+ (BET365), who has battled on well against top grade gallopers at past couple and is drawn to get an ideal run at a great price, and finally CHARLIE BOY @ $18+ (BET365, BETSTAR, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU). Main dangers CHETWOOD and BADAWIYA.

SUGGEST: RAGEESE (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.00+, ROUGH JUSTICE (EACH WAY) @ $26+, CHARLIE BOY (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5 / 2, 7, 10 / F / 2, 7, 10 (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Next is a Group 3 event for the mares over 1200m. As always with the mares, not easy. Actually leaning here with RAVI @ $6.50+ (UNIBET, CROWNBET, PALMERBET) who just missed behind one I rate highly in the underrated Heavens Above. Then want secondary play on a couple of juicy odds in MISS GUNPOWDER @ $19+ (SPORTSBET) who is capable and never far away, and MOSSIN’ AROUND @ $26+ (most operators) who has saluted for us at a similar price in the past, so let’s hope we’re jumping on again at the right time. Main dangers SHIEDEL, SECRET AGENDA, SILENT SEDITION and AMERISTRALIA.

SUGGEST: RAVI (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.50+, MISS GUNPOWDER (EACH WAY) @ $19+, MOSSIN’ AROUND (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 14 / 1, 8, 10 / F / 1, 8, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Group 1 Caulfield Stakes, and you would expect to see a cracking field, and run your eye down numbers 1, 2, 3 (BLACK HEART BART, HE OR SHE, WINX) you immediately feel the table raise and then realise that is all!!!! Three horses in a group 1, with $27k the prizemoney for 4th but nobody rocking up to take it. Head scratcher. WINX should be winning, BLACK HEART BART should be running 2nd and HE OR SHE should be running third. I guess take the trifecta as a standout in the exact order and besides that, watch and enjoy.

SUGGEST: TRIFECTA (WINX / BLACK HEART BART / HE OR SHE) (CONFIDENCE 75%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Group 1 Thousand Guineas for the three year old fillies over the mile (1600m). Competitive affair as you’d always expected in a group 1 such as this and I personally think this race runs a lot deeper than many are suggesting/predicting. As a result, actually looking at plays st several here, two of which are 40/1+. First and foremost want to play LA LUNA ROSSA @ $13+ with SPORTSBET, LUXBET and BET365. Loved the way she hit the line last time, sure to be cherry ripe over the mile and those Kiwis know how to win our group 1s. Next is SWORD OF LIGHT who also filled a place in the same race, however has still come up at $51+ with UBET. The query is running a strong mile, however nothing wrong with her last run and the price is simply massive overs. Finally, *SMART AMELIA* has also come up a stupid price @ $71+ (most operators) given she has had excuses at every start since showing great promise on debut. Gun hoop rides in McDonald and will need luck as usual, but if she gets the luck, then a legitimate winning chance at any old odds. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MISSROCK, LEOTIE, SAMARA DANCER and I AM A STAR all at juicy prices themselves. Happy to take on the Sydney siders at rock bottom odds, despite them being big chances.

SUGGEST: LA LUNA ROSSA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $13+, SWORD OF LIGHT (EACH WAY) @ $51+, *SMART AMELIA* (EACH WAY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 7, 10 / 6, 9, 13 / F / 6, 9, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Now for the male equivalent, the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas also over the mile and no easier here. Leaning towards **SACRED ELIXIR** @ $6.50+ (WILLIAM HILL) who gave fitness and weight to them last time and was still too good. Was our Derby tip for the Spring and this might be a nice little (or big) Group 1 on the way. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other over the odds is GOOD STANDING @ $9+ (UNIBET, CROWNBET, SPORTSBET) who I’ve always had an opinion of for an event like this. Seems to be slowly but surely bridging the gap against a couple of his key rivals here and importantly Bowman re-joins acquaintances here. Main dangers IMPENDING and DIVINE PROPHET. In this instance, think the Sydney-siders are most definitely the ones to beat.

SUGGEST: **SACRED ELIXIR** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, GOOD STANDING (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 1, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9 (updated at 10:22am AEDT - JACQUINOT BAY upgraded to BEST LONGSHOT): Penultimate event is the Group 1 Toorak Handicap also over the mile. Plenty of chances and form lines to line up, however given market and most importantly value, finding it hard to split COUNTERATTACK @ $9+ (UNIBET) and THAMES COURT @ $9.50+ (most operators). Both going well and great winning chances if they can get the luck associated with a Group 1 handicap like this. Also must have something on the old fellow JACQUINOT BAY @ $31+ (BET365, CROWNBET, SPORTSBET) who would/should be at least half the price if it wasn’t for his age (9). Given the odds and scratching of O’Malley in the last, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers HE’S OUR ROKKII, AWESOME ROCK and BON AURUM.

SUGGEST: COUNTERATTACK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, THAMES COURT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, *JACQUINOT BAY* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / 5, 7, 10 / F / 5, 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 10 (updated at 10:22am AEDT - O'Malley removed): And we finish a bumper card with the Group 2 WFA (Weight for age) Schillaci Stakes over 1200m and I think we’ve saved the easiest to last in the form of star three year old STAR TURN @ $2.60+ with UNIBET, BETSTAR, LADBROKES and BOOMAKERS.COM.AU. The three year olds have been beating the older horses this Spring and this guy is as good as any of them. Just missed in two horse war against the one who many believe is the best in Astern. Keen. Main dangers FLAMBERGE, HUCKLEBUCK, FELL SWOOP, OCEAN EMBERS.

SUGGEST: STAR TURN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 5, 11 / 12 / F / 1, 4, 5, 11) (CONFIDENCE 65%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $21.32+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: HOWARD BE THY NAME @ $4.25+, SACRED ELIXIR @ $6.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SMART AMELIA @ $71+, JACQUINOT BAY @ $31+

#happypunting