ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY OCTOBER 8, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 4.92, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK and back to back dry tracks in Sydney, it’s definitely been a while. Rail out +6M after ebing out +3M last week, hence expecting no major disadvantage to be on pace, close to the fence, pace dependant. In fact we have based the summary on the assumption on pacers will have an advantage, hence if this happens to not be the case, be wary moving forward. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the two year olds and despite the guesswork involved with a race full of debutants, sticking with the Waller two year olds after Madame Moustache found a heap of trouble last week to run 4th at a price, thankfully allowing us to get a piece of a big first four as a result. Anyways, that was last week, and this week going with the stablemate in LUIZA @ $5+ with LUXBET and BET365.
SUGGEST: LUIZA (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 70 over 1400m and simply can’t go past NICCOLANCE @ $3.75+ with BET365. Can lead, dictate and hopefully pinch a race winning break on the turn. Main danger the obvious in INVINCIBELLA.
SUGGEST: NICCOLANCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.75+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / F / F), (2 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1600m and this one looks fairly straightforward if the assumption of there being no disadvantage (ideally a distinct advantage) to be on pace / on rail. This comes in the form of top weight SIGNPOSTED @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET). Gets in nicely after the 3kg claim, from 61kg to 58kg. Hard to beat, great each way price and a standout BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: SIGNPOSTED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 4: Class 3 Handicap and this race looks extremely devoid of speed, with many get back, run on horses. This simply plays into the hands of **GAMBLED** who won well last start and given the conditions and expected speed map should be terribly hard to beat here at a very juicy $11+ with CROWNBET, UBET and PALMERBET. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers DISTINCTIVE LOOK who won well for Dungeon followers last time at double figure odds, and GRAND ROUGE.
SUGGEST: **GAMBLED** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 83 over 2000m and another clear top pick here, this time in the form of BROADSIDE @ $3.20+ with UBET. Spewing SALTHOUSE is now out as the price was much better last night and was confident of getting the chocolates regardless. Again, minimal pace on paper, so hopefully allowed to lead, dictate and sick when it counts. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: BROADSIDE (WIN) @ $3.20+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Benchmark 83 October Handicap over 2000m and as the market suggests, a very competitive affair with little between several runners here from a market perspective. Keen to play around two here, firstly **RELIGIFY** @ $7+ with CROWNBET who has been very good to dungeon followers along the journey. Goes well first up and has trialled very well, saying he’s ready to fire here. Great each way value with all three dividends up for grabs. For this reason, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then want a saver WIN bet on hardest to beat here in HANDFAST @ $3.50+ with CROWNBET. Expecting the two to fight this one out ahead of several who will close late from the rear. Hoping the bird has flown by the time they get going.
SUGGEST: **RELIGIFY** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, HANDFAST (WIN) @ $3.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for today’s Sydney feature, the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes to be run over 2000m. Tricky race, with blanket finish to contend with in the Gloaming, the race that many come from. After a lot of chopping and changing, looking at a three pronged play with stakes staggered accordingly. First and foremost YANKEE ROSE @ @ $2.70+ with BET365. Suggest a primary WIN only play, and hopefully she looks better in the yard. Last time she looked terrible, but the upside is still ran extremely well. Next is HIGH MIST, who we identified for the Derby along with Sacred Elixir for longer term Spring plays a few weeks’ back. We were on last time when the saddle slipped, hence a total forgive. Deserves another chance here at $9.50+ with UBET and CROWNBET. Finally, longshot play on *READY AIM FIRE* at a very juicy $81+ with SPORTSBET. Hopefully, is left alone up front given the price tag and he sneaks a break on the turn and gives them something serious to chase. Given the odds will make our only Sydney BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers PRIZED ICON, SWEAR and HONEYWINE in a wide open affair.
SUGGEST: YANKEE ROSE (WIN) @ $2.70+, HIGH MIST (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, *READY AIM FIRE* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5 / 4, 8, 11 / F / 4, 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event of the day is the Group 3 TAB Angst Stakes to be run over the mile (1600m). As the market suggests, this looks a race in two for the most part in the form of DIXIE BLOSSOMS and EXTENSIBLE. Slight query the mile for the latter and that’s the deciding factor for mine in leaning towards DIXIE BLOSSOMS instead at $3.60+ with UBET and WILLIAM HILL. Has been luckless of late, and will need some luck from gate 10, but minimal pace on paper here, assisted by the scratching of ROCKET COMMANDER and as a result, expect Timmy Clarke to be positive and if so, should find a comfortable spot right on the pace. Main danger the obvious in EXTENSIBLE who has never missed a place, and has run first 2 in 8 of her 9 starts.
SUGGEST: DIXIE BLOSSOMS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (8 / 7 / F / F), (F / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1200m with pace/tactics and how the track is playing key with minimal/no pace on paper. For this reason keen to play around TAILEVENT @ $9+ (most operators) and LEAMI ASTRAY @ $12+ with CROWNBET. Expecting both to take advantage of good gates and be right on the pace, which is hopefully the place to be. Main dangers TOP ME UP (good odds, just couldn’t squeeze all three in) and ROCK FOR THE LADIES, but race runs very deep, with many, many chances.
SUGGEST: TAILEVENT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, LEAMI ASTRAY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 11 / 9, 12 / F / 9, 12), (boxed 2, 9, 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $12.06+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: GAMBLED @ $11+, RELIGIFY @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: READY AIM FIRE @ $81+