12 November 2016 (Zipping Classic Day racing at Sandown - Hillside)

PUNTING DUNGEON

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SANDOWN HILLSIDE

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 12, 2016

 

Saturday racing returns to SANDOWN HILLSIDE with the penetrometer 5.35, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, however there is some rain forecast for Friday and Saturday, hence a down grade is possible.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to SANDOWN HILLSIDE for their showcase day with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, but especially with rain forecast, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a Listed event for the two year olds over 1000m and plenty of guesswork here. On the back of trials, happy to have smaller plays on value runners HERRERA @ $12+ (most operators) and *MY MOTHER SAYS* @ $19+ with LUXBET. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Both trialled nicely, hitting the line well and both representing goog juicy prices for a play. Main dangers VINLAND and MALZOOM but plenty of other chances as expected.

SUGGEST: HERRERA (EACH WAY) @ $12+, *MY MOTHER SAYS* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / F / F / 3, 12) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Next is a Group 3 event over 1500m and pace/tactics set to be key here, with only minimal pace on paper. Will be interesting who takes up the lead, as the jockey you takes the initiative may be rewarded bigtime. I would guess it would be one of ROYAL RAPTURE or SOVEREIGN NATION. Slight lean SOVEREIGN NATION @ $3.90+ (BET365) on the expectation he leads or takes a sit from the very good gate (3). Value with *SLIGHTLY SWEET* @ $16+ (BET365) who will get back but is good enough to fire third up. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger REDKIRK WARRIOR. No third dividend.

SUGGEST: SOVEREIGN NATION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.90+, *SLIGHTLY SWEET* (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 5 / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Next is the Listed Sandown Cup over 3200m and top-weight QEWY who ran super in the Melbourne Cup, looks terribly hard to beat here at $2.20+ with BET365 and suggest a WIN only play. Main danger DE LITTLE ENGINE, ahead of SWACADELIC and MURPHY’S DELIGHT, but confident the top pick wins. Best horse rule. Keen!

SUGGEST: QEWY (WIN) @ $2.20+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1, 4, 5 / 1, 4, 5 / F), (3, 4, 5 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 75%)

 

Race 4: Listed Doveton Stakes over 1000m and an intriguing affair. O’MALLEY flying and the one to beat, but barrier 1 will require a patient ride and/or a bit of luck, hence at the short $3.40+ price, happy to look for better value. Think best value lies with JUNGLE EDGE @ $9+ with SPORTSBET, LUXBET and UNIBET. As long as we don’t get too much rain, also want something on HUSSON EAGLE @ $8.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Main danger most definitely O’MALLEY who is low flying despite his get back, run on style of racing, ahead of VEZALAY, BULLPIT and BROCKHOFF. Would have been suggesting BULLPIT at the opening price of $15+, however crunched into $6.50+, hence prefer the above at the better prices.

SUGGEST: JUNGLE EDGE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, HUSSON EAGLE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 11 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 11 /3, 5, 7, 8, 11), (5, 6, 7, 11 / 3, 8 / F / 3, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is the Twilight Glow Stakes for the three year old fillies to be run over 1400m and think there’s a standout here in the form of PROMPT RESPONSE at a respectable $3.30+ with UBET. Just missed on Cup Day to the white-hot Jennifer Lynn and can atone here in what is a drop in grade, whilst staying at 55kg. Should also get a softer run in transit and simply be very hard to beat. Main dangers PETITION, HEAR THE CHANT, ANGHARAD and QUICK FEET.

SUGGEST: PROMPT RESPONSE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 10, 14 / 5 / F / 2, 6, 10, 14) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 6: Now for the Group 2 Sandown Guineas for the three year olds over 1600m. Not the greatest Guineas fields with only 9 starters, and a lack of pace on paper, may well turn this into a very tactical affair. Concede MORTON’S FORK is the one to beat, but personally think $2.05+ is no value and as a result happy to take on simply at the price. Not sure how **JENNIFER LYNN** is not much closer to equal favourite and at almost double the price at $4+ (UBET, WILLIAM HILL, LUXBET) more than happy to play that way instead. Given the better than expected price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. A saver on BENZ @ $10+ (WILLIAM HILL) who might get away with the soft run up front and did salute for dungeon followers at a price three back at the value when Best Value of the night at double figure odds. Main danger the obvious in MORTON’S FORK, ahead of FARAWAY TOWN another who will get back.    

SUGGEST: **JENNIFER LYNN** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, BENZ (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / 8 / F / 2), (1, 7 / F / 8 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Next is the feature, the Group 2 Zipping Classic to be run over 2400m which sees several who ran well in the Melbourne Cup, back up for a small (yet decent) consolation prize. Slight lean here to BIG ORANGE @ $5+ with BET365. Just ahead of main danger ALMOONQITH and last year’s brilliant winner WHO SHOT THEBARMAN.

SUGGEST: BIG ORANGE (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 1, 2, 3 / F / 1, 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:53PM AEDT): 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 6, 8, 13, 14 / 2, 6

 

Race 8: Now for a very decent edition of the Kevin Heffernan Stakes, a Group 3 WFA (Weight For Age) event over 1300m. Pace/tactics set to be key here with decent pace up front, however several runners (such as key runner ILLUSTRIOUS LAD) capable of being right on pace or settling midfield or worse. Despite the bad draw and pace on paper sticking with ILLUSTRIOUS LAD who ended a brilliant day for dungeon followers in style on Derby Day, saluting at $14+ and securing a slice of a $30k+ quaddie. Going to stick with him @ $4+ with BET365. Ahead of SUPER CASH @ $8+ with most operators. Should get the right run in transit behind the speed and be ready to peel out at the right time with only 57kg on her back. Main dangers UNDER THE LOUVRE, FAMOUS SEAMUS, WE’VE GOT THIS and SANTA ANA LANE all at juicy prices.  

SUGGEST: ILLUSTRIOUS LAD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, SUPER CASH (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 9, 10 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: Penultimate event is the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes over 1800m and willing to give **PLOT THE COURSE** another chance at $13+ with BET365. We were keen on cup day, but was simply given no chance from barrier 1, once they elected to go back and sit on the rail while Fabrizio was given a picnic up front. A total forgive in my opinion and form prior is good enough for this. Shocked by the price, should simply be much shorter and as a result will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want something on DESERT JEUNEY @ $15+ (BET365) who was super last time against the pattern/slow pace after a couple of disappointing runs. Looks to be ready to fire once again at a juicy price. Main dangers ALASKAN ROSE, LIDARI, TUCHANCHOO and JACQUINOT BAY.

SUGGEST: **PLOT THE COURSE** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, DESERT JEUNEY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 8, 11 / F / F / 6, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 10: We finish with the Group 3 Summoned Stakes for the mares over 1500m and despite the poor draw, happy to lean towards SILENT SEDITION @ $5+ with most operators. Williams has the luxury of electing to go forward or back as this girl has fired from the front or the back in the past, so the key is he works it out early. Ultra-consistent galloper, placed at 10 of 11 career starts, the unplaced run, 4th. Then want something on METAPHORICAL @ $11+ (UBET, LUXBET, BET365). She sat closer last time, knowing Sort After would get a soft run and ran well, and will have the benefit of settling where she likes from gate 4 here. Main dangers EXTENSIBLE, SHILLELAGH and VITAL IMPORTANCE, with the form out of the first up Sale win very good, with 3rd placed Boom Time saluting for dungeon followers last weekend.

SUGGEST: SILENT SEDITION (EACH WAY) @ $5+, METAPHORICAL (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (9, 12 / 2, 6, 9, 12 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:53PM AEDT): 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 6, 8, 13, 14 / 2, 6

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $8.75+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: JENNIFER LYNN @ $4+, PLOT THE COURSE @ $13+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MY MOTHER SAYS @ $19+, SLIGHTLY SWEET @ $16+

#happypunting