12 November 2016 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 5.1, hence currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface, however storms currently over Sydney hence there still may be more damage to come. 8-15mm forecast.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with some heavy rain over Sydney as we speak. Rail is out +3M after being in the TRUE position a couple of weeks’ back. As a result, expecting them to get away from the fence, especially as the day goes on. Be sure to keep a constant eye on the track and how it’s playing throughout the day.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1200m and this is an absolute raffle for several reasons. Only two have race day experience, and one of those two (THE MISSION) pulled up with a slow recovery rate, after attracting decent support in a listed event. Then, we have the additional unknown of the wet track, coupled with the fact all/most of these runners have shown good gate speed in trials and all went forward, meaning if that was to occur we could have a hectic tempo up front, setting it up for those who settle off the pace. With all that in mind, watch and learn race for mine.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 69 over 1300m and going with the one proven on a softer track in the form of ZUMBELINA @ $3.50+ with LUXBET. Leading contender regardless of the weather, however clear pick now given debut run on a soft track. Bit of pace, despite the small field, so should also get the gun run, probably 4th of 5 in the run and hopefully out of trouble. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: ZUMBELINA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 81 handicap over 2400m and once again taking the hopefully ‘safer’ option with the proven wet tracker, hence hoping the rain continues to pour. Slight lean given the conditions to SOVIET COURAGE @ $6.50+ with UBET. Disappointed by the scratching of hot pot fave VASSAL who we were keen to take on with 61kg. Main danger stablemate PURSUIT OF COURAGE who has the most upside here, however the only query is the wet track. If handles the wet, very hard to beat. Ahead of DER MEISTER.

SUGGEST: SOVIET COURAGE (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is the Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1400m and **SAY YOU LOVE ME** looks the one to beat here and clear top pick for mine at the very respectable $5.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Secondary play NOBLE DESCENT @ $12+ (BET365) who was super fresh and arguably better second up. Gets conditions to suit. Main dangers ARTISTIC BEAUTY and BUDDEROO KNIGHT.

SUGGEST: **SAY YOU LOVE ME** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, NOBLE DESCENT (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 11 / 1, 4, 8, 11 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Next is the All Our Mob Handicap over 1200m and this looks a small, but complicated and tricky affair. Best ride might win, with pace/tactics key. There’s a legitimate query against all runners here, whether it be a wet track (red hot fave MERSAULT), big weights or simply fitness levels with 2 of the 6 here first up from breaks. I think MERSAULT is probably the best horse and the one to beat, but can’t get overly enthused by the skinny $2.80+. Instead, just going to have a play on the rank outsider of the field here in *KUDERO* @ $26+ (BET365), who is a late entry here after the hitting the line well last time. Will appreciate a decent tempo up front, so hopefully that eventuated and gets in with a featherweight of 52kg after the claim. Query the class and the wet track, but at the price happy to take the punt. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger MERSAULT, then throw a blanket over the rest. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: *KUDERO* (EACH WAY) @ $26, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 4 / 5 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4), (5 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 84 over 1200m and a very good, little race with decent quality and not much between many. Finding this very hard to split, hence looking to have several staggered plays at better odds. Firstly, ROEINDA @ $11+ (UBET, BET365) who gets good weight swing against hot fave DAYSEE DOOM here for their battle back in April, where ROEINDA had the additional legitimate excuse of a poor recovery. Also, well weighted here for last start defeat behind another key rival NUDIERUDIE (1.5kg for 0.2L = simply math). The other primary play is YUMA DESERT with Blake Shinn aboard. Interesting Shinn is back in Sydney today, given the decent card at Sandown so you’d be hoping for a couple of winners to make the decision worthwhile. Hasn’t been jumping well, but with senior hoop aboard, can hopefully jump better and if so will be every chance at $9.50+ (BET365). Happy to play WIN only basis given the multiple selections, but obviously an each way price, hence suit yourself. Finally, a secondary play on another late entry down from Queensland, this in the form of bottom weight *ALPEN ROSE* at a very juicy $26+ with BET365. The wetter, the better. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest. Good race.

SUGGEST: ROEINDA (EACH WAY) @ $11+, YUMA DESERT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, *ALPEN ROSE* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 8, 9 / F / 4, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:36PM AEDT): FIELD / 5 / 1, 3 / 2, 3

 

Race 7: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1500m and keen on TRAFALGAR here first up at a tidy $7.50+ with UBET. Flies flesh, trialled very well, reports are he’s come through that well, ultra-consistent (3 wins, 5 placings from 6 starts), has raced well on a soft track and finally looks to get strong tempo up front to allow him to sit back and swoop late. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest, with very little between them, regardless of odds on offer.

SUGGEST: **TRAFALGAR** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 84 over 1300m. Tricky affair with pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Leaning towards CAUTHEN’S POWER first up @ $7+ (UBET, BET365). Drawn poorly, but there looks to be good pace in the pace, hence the possibility of settling a little further back than usual may work in his favour. Should be hitting the line and hopefully has relevant fitness levels to win. Main danger BURNING PASSION who gets conditions to suit with the rain about.

SUGGEST: CAUTHEN’S POWER (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 3), (F / 1 / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1100m and like RAPHAEL’S CAT here first up at $5+ with most operators. Very well suited at this grade, with the only query the weight, but over the shorter 1100m distance with gun hoop Shinn aboard, happy to take the punt he can lump the 60.5kg to victory. Secondary play another with the same weight and will also be on pace in TOP STRIKER @ $7+ with most operators. Then another case of throwing a blanket over many in another competitive affair.

SUGGEST: RAPHAEL’S CAT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, TOP STRIKER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:36PM AEDT): FIELD / 5 / 1, 3 / 2, 3

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $10.54+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SAY YOU LOVE ME @ $5.50+, TRAFALGAR @ $7.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: KUDERO @ $26+, ALPEN ROSE @ $26+

#happypunting