SATURDAY NOVEMBER 19, 2016
Saturday racing returns to BALLARAT with the penetrometer 5.27, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to BALLARAT for their showcase day with the rail out +2M from 450M to WP (Winning Post), and in the TRUE for the remainder of the course. Hoping for an even track, but given fine conditions expecting no disadvantage to be closer to the pace, pace dependant, however be sure to keep a close eye on early races for best guide.
WARNING: Very tough card and not one I'm overly confident on, but fingers crossed we can land a couple.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 over 1200m and think there’s one who jumps out in terms of value in the form of SEA SPRAY @ $12+ with BET365. Concern is the get back style of racing, especially if there ends up being an advantage on pace, but given the price happy to take the punt. Main dangers the obvious in CHEEKY BABE and ENTRANCING.
SUGGEST: SEA SPRAY (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Next is the City of Ballarat Tonks Plate run over 1200m and a small but competitive race. Expecting **BELIEVE YOURSELF** to be hard to catch first up at $4.25+ with BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest and there will be a bit of that today with many tough, competitive affairs.
SUGGEST: **BELIEVE YOURSELF** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.25+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a Vobis Gold SWP (Set weights and penalties) event for the three year olds over 1400m. Think this sets up perfectly for URBAN RULER as long as Nolen is able to cross from the tricky gate (9) and ideally find a spot one out, one back. If he lands there (my map has him landing there), should be hard to beat. If posted wide without cover, then the game changes. Happy to take the punt given our speed map and given current price play on a WIN only basis at $2.75+ with BET365. Have a feeling we might get better closer to jump time and if you can snag $1.70+ place, then play each way.
SUGGEST: URBAN RULER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.75+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Next is the Magic Millions Clockwise Classic for the two year olds over 1000m and have come out with a couple on top in a very even affair. The two in question are ALGORITHM @ $7+ (SPORTSBET), opened up at $11+ which was a spoil and GARRARD @ $5.50+ with CROWNBET and UBET. Plenty of guesswork with the two year olds in another tough race.
SUGGEST: ALGORITHM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, GARRARD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is the benchmark 70 Suez Mckellar Mile (1600m) and another competitive affair. GALAXY RAIDER is all the rage, but rock bottom odds and little value for mine. Might be too good, but happy to play around him at the short quote. Think best value lies with SHOCKAHOLIC @ $7+ (SPORTSBET), good each way value, but similar to others will get back so hopefully those off the pace are getting their chance. Then, want a WIN only play on DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR @ $3.70+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main danger the obvious in GALAXY RAIDER.
SUGGEST: SHOCKAHOLIC (EACH WAY) @ $7+, DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (WIN) @ $3.70+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 5, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Next is a benchmark 70 over 1100m and there looks to be a stack of pace up front, hence set to suit those off the pace and this will prove whether we have a bias or not, if not known prior. Tough race and not really one I’m overly enthused about. However, as usual looking to identify what I consider to be best value and believe that comes in the form of PUNT CLUB @ $7.50+ (BET365) and *STRIDE OUT* @ $41+ with BET365. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers JUST GOT LUCKY, MA DEUCE and EL RADA but doesn’t end there in a tough, tough race.
SUGGEST: PUNT CLUB (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *STRIDE OUT* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 14 / 3, 6, 9, 10, 14 / F / 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Next is the Magic Millions 3 & 4YO Classic run over 1100m. Key runner here is SECRET AGENDA who would be top pick here if there was cut in the ground, but the concern is now with the fine weather and improving track. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a late scratching to be honest. Then there’s SPEEDEOR and GOLDEN SPIN, ahead of LIBERTY SONG. Be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from those. Going to play GOLDEN SPIN here purely given the $5+ on offer compared with the sub $3 for SECRET AGENDA and SPEEDEOR. Don’t think the gap should be so big. Then, something on LIBERTY SONG @ $23+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, BET365) who caught the eye last time behind SPEEDEOR. This is definitely the skinnier quaddie leg.
SUGGEST: GOLDEN SPIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, LIBERTY SONG (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / 1, 3, 6, 7 / F /1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for the feature, the Listed Ballarat Cup to be run over 2200m. And wow, this is super hard as illustrated by the market with $7.50+ the field! After a lot of chopping and changing, have landed on the Hayes and Dabernig duo in PILOTE D’ESSAI @ $21+ (UBET, SPORTSBET) and RISING ROMANCE also at $21+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. PILOTE D’ESSAI falls into the same bracket as Get The Pitcure who we snagged at a juicy price last night, when a total forgive on that extremely leader’s biased track at Flemington on Oaks day. You simply couldn’t be back and wide, hence if we liked him that day, no reason to jump off on the back of what looks like a ‘flop’. Longshot play *DESERT JEUNEY* @ $67+ (BET365) who we didn’t mind last week when very poor after missing the start. Is better than that and a chance if he reproduces run two back at Flemington. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SCHERZOSO (wanted to squeeze in but into $12+ hence gone with better value), LORD VAN PERCY, LIDARI and NOZOMI.
SUGGEST: PILOTE D’ESSAI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, RISING ROMANCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *DESERT JEUNEY* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9, 14, 15 / 2, 3, 7, 9, 14, 15, 16 / F / 3, 7, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 2300m and pace/tactics and how track is playing is key. If backmarkers are getting their chance then CHARLEVOIX is the one to beat, however given the query on that necessarily being the case, prefer to play a couple at odds instead. It’s one of those days, where I’d rather have smaller plays at odds, as opposed to big standalone investments as it’s simply a tough card. The two I want to play on are RAKTI ROULETTE at $18+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR who will appreciate any on pace advantage. The other is LOVING HOME @ $14+ with most operators, he has been poor on paper of late, however has had legitimate excuses and is better than the form suggests. Run three back this prep is good enough to be very competitive here. Main danger CHARLEVOIX and SHIKARPOUR.
SUGGEST: RAKTI ROULETTE (EACH WAY) @ $18+, LOVING HOME (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / F / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 10: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1400m and pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key again. If those off the pace are getting every chance then DUIBIO is the one to beat, however again not sure that will be the case, hence instead prefer to explore better value in the form of **TAKE PRIDE** @ $13+ (BET365) and VILLOPOTO @ $17+ with UBET. Given the odds will make TAKE PRIDE a BEST VALUE of the day. Main dangers DUIBIO, SEPTAMORE and ACT OF VALOUR.
SUGGEST: **TAKE PRIDE** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, VILLOPOTO (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (9, 11, 12 / 6, 10 / F / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $16.09+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: BELIEVE YOURSELF @ $4.25+, TAKE PRIDE @ $13+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: STRIDE OUT @ $41+, DESERT JEUNEY @ $67+