ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.55, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine conditions all week and forecast, hence we will be dealing with a firm surface. Rail is out +6M after being in out +3M last week. Expecting no disadvantage to be on pace, closer to the fence, pace dependant, however as always be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing early on for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 over 1200m and expecting this one to be dominated from the front in the form of the Bjorn Baker duo of LUBITON and BALTIC WHISPER. Suggest LUBITON on a WIN only basis at $4+ (BET365) in addition to BALTIC WHISPER @ $7.50+ (BET365) on an each way basis, however be sure to note no third dividend. Not much between the rest in an open affair to start the day.
SUGGEST: LUBITON (WIN) @ $4+, BALTIC WHISPER (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and don’t see any reason why **GIRL SUNDAY** can’t make it back to back wins this prep at a tidy $8.50+ with BET365. Should be able to lead without too much pressure and if so, should be hard to run down here. Like the fact she won last time leading all the way and they ran quick time (1.15.95 over 1300m) and gets added bonus of 2kg claim taking her to 56kg, with only 1 other runner carrying less. Given the price, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **GIRL SUNDAY** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: TAB Highway Handicap over 1100m and as opposed to the first couple of races, there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here. As a result, will be interesting how strong any on pace bias is and I think we’ll know after this race, with backmarkers set to get their chance given the expected strong tempo up front. Slight lean to the top weight here in THELITTLERACKETEER @ $6.50+ with most operators. Then also want something on *POMME PETITE* @ $23+ (LUXBET) who was very impressive in lesser grade last time. May have come back very well and at the price happy to take the punt he can step up to this grade. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SOMEBODY.
SUGGEST: THELITTLERACKETEER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.50+, *POMME PETITE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 1, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 78 handicap over 2000m and pace/tactics set to be key with a few on pacers mixed with several who like to settle back. Top pick here is THE BULL @ $3.80+ (UBET) who is flying and should get a comfortable enough time up front. Also, want something on top HERNE’S OAK at a very tidy $13+ with most operators with a handy 3kg claim which is required at this level, dropping weight from 62.5kg to a palatable 59.5kg. Main dangers ESCHIELE (who just missed for us last time) and BE LIKE DAD who did plenty of work in that same race and battled on okay late. Again, taking the punt on those settling back.
SUGGEST: THE BULL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, HERNE’S OAK (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (4, 10 / 6 / F / 1), (4, 10 / F / 6 / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 93 over 1100m and not much between them here, so not an easy race. In saying that, like the odds on offer for **PRESS REPORT** @ $11+ (most operators) and first up record is better than it reads on paper. Liked the trial and can win first up at a double figure price. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, wouldn’t mind something on ECHO GAL @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) who was a total forgive last time on the inside down the straight at Flemington and we all know you simply can’t win there. Main danger LE CORDON BLEU but doesn’t end there.
SUGGEST: **PRESS REPORT** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11, ECHO GAL (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: November Topaz run over 1900m and NEW TIPPERARY looks very hard to beat here at a respectable $2.90+ with most operators. Suggest a primary WIN only play here. Then smaller plays DANCE OF HEROES @ $14+ and *MAGICOOL* @ $41+ (both with most operators). Given the odds, will make *MAGICOOL* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers MALICE, FALKENBERG and IGGI POP.
SUGGEST: NEW TIPPERARY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.90+, DANCE OF HEROES (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, *MAGICOOL* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (5, 9, 11 / 12 / F / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 7: Next is the November Handicap over 1400m and although he is starting to earn the unwanted tag of a money muncher, RELIGIFY looks the one to beat here @ $2.90+ with BET365. Just looks to get everything to suit here and should be hard to catch. Last run had a lot of merit, although being potted given he went down at a very short $1.60 price in the end. Gets necessary weight swing against RED EXCITEMENT who defeated him last time. Absolutely no excuses here and suggest primary WIN only play. Then, want a secondary play on PAJARO @ $14+ with most operators. Blinkers go on first up after nice trial and can win at a price. Not much between the rest in a competitive affair.
SUGGEST: RELIGIFY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.90+, PAJARO (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1400m. Tricky race, but have landed on a couple at double figure prices in the form of MON PERE @ $11+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET, CROWNBET) and QUICK DEFENCE @ $12+ (SPORTSBET and BET365). Main dangers METALLIC CROWN (almost included above but can’t squeeze three in at those prices) and SIR PLUSH.
SUGGEST: MON PERE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, QUICK DEFENCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / 1, 5, 6, 8 / F / 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m and this is tough, arguably the toughest of the day is in the lucky last so hopefully we’re well up by this stage. Looks to actually be some decent tempo up front with many on pacers or those who usual settle forward of midfield. Especially if there has been an on pace advantage (as we’re hoping there is given suggestions today), then there’s also the added chance of over-compensation, especially late in the day and that could well occur here. Looking to play a couple here in the form of SONIC SWISH @ $7.50+ (most operators) who is drawn awkwardly and as a result will be closer to the rear, but hoping the pace up front gives him his chance. The other is LYCIA at a juicy $11+ with SPORTSBET. Throw a blanket over the rest in a tough finish.
SUGGEST: SONIC SWISH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, LYCIA (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10, 12 / F / 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $11.92+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: GIRL SUNDAY @ $8.50+, PRESS REPORT @ $11+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: POMME PETITE @ $23+, MAGICOOL @ $41+