26 November 2016 (Racing at Moonee Valley)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2016

 

We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.56, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, with only a medium chance (40%) of light showers, so expecting no change to the track rating.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail back in the TRUE position, which normally equates to the fairest position at the track. As a result, expecting all runners to get their chance, pace dependant. As always, be sure to watch early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 over the mile (1600m) and although INVINCIBELLA is the one to beat, not interested in taking odds on, for a runner who is unknown/a query at the trip. Gives the signs she will most likely run it out, but totally unknown right now and not taking $1.90+ to find out. As a result, instead think much better value lies in the form of TIFFANY’S LASS at $16+ (UBET) and MOONLITE’S CHOICE at $6+ with WILLIAM HILL. TIFFANY’S LASS was very unlucky last time and gets good weight swing on key rival here in HEAVENLY DESCENT. While, MOONLITE’S CHOICE has been stepping up the grades nicely and Darren Weird is very astute at judging when to bring them to town and the timing looks perfect here. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: TIFFANY’S LASS (EACH WAY) @ $16+, MOONLITE’S CHOICE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is an event for the 2YO (two year olds) to be run over 1000m. We didn’t mind CAO CAO last time (nominated as a main danger at 40/1 on debut when flashed home for 2nd) and although I think he is the one to beat here, I am wary of where he gets to in the run from barrier 4 as my speedmap currently has him bottled up on the rail and potentially needing luck. For this reason, given the short price ($3.70+), prefer to play others who have trialled well and simply map to get better runs in the race. The two in question are STAR SEARCH @ $10+ (most operators) and ROCKETCOD @ $15+ also with most operators. Main danger CAO CAO, KEDLESTON and any market movers late in betting given we are dealing with several debutants. For those looking for a simply way to track market movers, be sure to download the Plunge app from the Apple App Store. Is 100% FREE so worth having on the side as a very handy utility to compliment your dungeon summaries.

SUGGEST: STAR SEARCH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, ROCKETCOD (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / F / F / 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: MSC Signs Handicap run over 1000m and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper, hence pace/tactics set to be key. Should they go as expected up front, I think it sets things up for a couple to swoop from the rear in the form of CHIAVARI @ $8.50+ (UBET) and SOLAR DUCHESS @ $20+ with WILLIAM HILL. Both look set to get tempo to suit and both normally good fresh and form over this tack and distance. Main danger LYUBA and VERY CHOOSY.

SUGGEST: CHIAVARI (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, SOLAR DUCHESS (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7 / 2, 4, 6, 7 / F / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Next is a benchmark 70 over 1200m and despite which some astute judges are predicting, my speed map has this lot going along at a decent tempo also. Tricky race, with plenty of chances with pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Hoping they are able to make ground (pace dependant) and if so, finding it hard to split HELLBOUND at $8+ (WILLIAM HILL) and WIDGEE TURF @ $7.50+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. HELLBOUND was our ‘Best Longshot’ of the day cup day and was a big firmer ($61 into $26) before running a great 3rd behind the red hot Speedeor. Throw a blanket over the rest in a wide open (and tricky) affair.  

SUGGEST: HELLBOUND (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, WIDGEE TURF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 78 over the mile (1600m) and on this occasion there only looks to be a moderate tempo up front which could favour those closer to the pace, no worse than midfield. Slight lean BLACK SHEEP @ $4+ with BET365 who looks set to bounce back after being unlucky last time over this track and distance. Also want something on best value runner AMBER CAVALIER at a juicy $19+ with SPORTSBET. May be able to get away with a soft lead up front and obviously any on pace bias (which isn’t expected) will only enhance chances. Main danger FLYING LIGHT who will also be on pace and appreciate any lack of pace/advantage to those up front.

SUGGEST: BLACK SHEEP (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, AMBER CAVALIER (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Next is a benchmark 84 over the mile (1600m) and another race where pace/tactics and how track is playing is set to be key. Once again, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace/pressure up front and as a result, hence expecting those up front to be favoured, despite knowing there are many great chances who will look to settle closer to the rear. Slight lean BELUGA BLUE @ $7.50+ with most operators, while want to have something on a BEST LONGSHOT of the day suggestion in the form of ASHLEE MARIE at a big $67+ also with SPORTSBET. Main dangers MILES OF KRISHAN and PAYROLL, but race runs much deeper.

SUGGEST: BELUGA BLUE (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, *ASHLEE MARIE* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10 / 2, 6, 10, 14 / F / 2, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Next is a benchmark 90 over the famous 2040m distance at the Valley and this looks a tough, ultra-competitive affair. Decent numbers but many natural backmarkers, hence at the risk of sounding like a broken record, pace/tactics and how track is playing key. Slight lean to PATCH ADAMS here at a generous $10+ with most operators. Heads back to town after racing well in country cups, many of which are of a similar standard to this. Should give them something to chase and give a great sight. Also want something on one at even bigger odds in the form of SURVIVED @ $21+ with SPORTSBET. Importantly gets a 3kg weight swing on key rival and one we were on at good odds last time when victorious in BOOM TIME. Both suggestions expected to settle on the pace, hence be sure to take note how track is playing as we’ll have a clear picture by now. Main dangers HIGH CHURCH, BOOM TIME, LITTLE WHITE CLOUD, HIPPARCHUS and ENCOSTA LINE. Deep race.

SUGGEST: PATCH ADAMS (EACH WAY) @ $10+, SURVIVED (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8, 9, 10 / 2, 5, 8, 9, 10 / 2, 5, 8, 9, 10 / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Next is another handicap, this time over 1000m and there looks to be decent tempo up front here with many natural on pacers engaged over the short trip. Once again, assuming a fair track, you’d expect no disadvantage to be coming from off the pace given the pace and as a result have landed on a couple expected to towards the rear, midfield at best. Firstly, BEAU RADA at a generous $14+ with BET365. Goes okay fresh, but importantly excels at this track/distance (6 starts, for 2 wins and 3 seconds) and has form past 6 months arounds the likes of Supido, Shiedel and Malaguerra, all much better grade animals than the gelding finds here. Super each way value and given odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then also want a WIN only play on STELLAR COLLISION @ $3.60+ with most operators. And a secondary, smaller play on *LUCKY SYMBOL* at a silly $34+ (BET365), first up for new stable. Tricky gate but at the price, worthy of a smaller play. Given the price, happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Should get a nice run midfield and be in a position to peel out at the right time. Main dangers ROCK ‘N’ GOLD, VEZALAY and SIRBIBLE would be top pick if there wasn’t so much expected pressure/pace on paper.

SUGGEST: **BEAU RADA** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, STELLAR COLLISION (WIN) @ $3.60+, *LUCKY SYMBOL* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 11 / 4, 13, 15 / F / 4, 13, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1200m and another competitive affair as the market suggests, currently $5+ the field. Slight lean **CANA** here @ $7+ with UBET. Very consistent galloper who dungeon followers have been on successfully twice in the past, notably on two absolute days out including Derby Day this year and that infamous day in October, 2015 when we tipped the card in Sydney and secured **CANA** and a lazy $31. There won’t be any $31, nor the $12 we secured last start, but more than happy with the $7+ in this grade. Given the price, actually happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. The other I believe is over the odds is HARD CALL at $14+ with CROWNBET. Has never actually won first up which is the query, however has run two placings from 3 first up starts. Is definitely good enough to win in this grade, the question will be how wound up he is for a first up assault. Main dangers KIEVANN and KING’S COMMAND but doesn’t end there in another deep race.

SUGGEST: **CANA** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, HARD CALL (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (3, 12 / 3, 11, 12, 14 / F / 11, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $15.43+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: BEAU RADA @ $14+, CANA @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LUCKY SYMBOL @ $34+, ASHLEE MARIE @ $67+

#happypunting