26 November 2016 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.67, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine conditions once again, with only a slight chance (20%) of a late shower which hopefully doesn’t affect anything here. Rail is back to the TRUE position after being out +6M last week, and +3M the week prior. This normally equates to a level playing field with hopefully all runners getting their chance, pace dependant. Wouldn’t expect any major issue running on away from the rail given the fine weather and recent rail positions, however as always be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing early on for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 71 over 1400m and a very small field of only 4 assembled. Tried to find a way to get ZUMBELINA after she won for dungeon followers last time and just don’t see any reason to jump off and actually don’t think the price of $1.75+ (WILLIAM HILL) is that bad. Does need to lump an extra 2kg, and key rival and arguably main danger CADOGAN meets her 3 kg better for a 3L defeat, but I think ZUMBELINA is the one with the superior upside and expecting class to prevail once again. Suggest a WIN only play, saver with CADOGAN to beat her.

SUGGEST: ZUMBELINA (WIN) @ $1.75+, EXACTA (CADOGAN / ZUMBELINA) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 2: Next are the two year olds with some guesswork as usual with several debutants, however decent trial form now easily accessible which makes things easier to make an informed decision. And on the back of the trial form, simply can’t go past Godolphin runner FLORID @ $2.60+ (UBET) who looked above average closing with style in his trial against the older three year olds. Suggest a WIN only play. Main dangers two of the three who have raced in SERENA BAY and IPSO FACTOR.  

SUGGEST: FLORID (WIN) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 11 / 5 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 76 over 1800m and this is a very interesting and potentially tactical affair with not a great deal of pace on paper. Actually going to play around three Waller runners, but not necessarily the red hot fave here in LIAPARI who is arguably the one with the most upside here (and possibly the best horse in the race), however little/no value at $2.90+ especially given the awkward draw (9) and get back race style, given the moderate tempo expected up front. Instead think PIANISSIMO ghets the gun run and will have no excuses at a decent $13+ (BET365), ahead of stablemate MONTAUK @ $12+ (LUXBET) who gets blinkers on and expecting to settle closer to the speed, and importantly with the experienced Glynn Schofield aboard. Finally, want a secondary small play on *THE RUMOUR FILE* at a massive $67+ with SPORTSBET. He won’t appreciate any lack of pace, but is better than recent form suggests and track spies tell me he is working much better in recent times, hence an improved showing is expected. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers BALMAIN BOY, ESCHIELE and LIAPARI.  

SUGGEST: PIANISSIMO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, MONTAUK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, *THE RUMOUR FILE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 7 / 2, 5, 8 / F / 2, 5, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1500m and am leaning towards AL CUBANA @ $4.60+ (most operators) turning the tables on favourite DELIGHTFUL FEELING. Both meet each other at the same weight scale as last time when little between them (0.3L), however given the extra distance, just loved the closing sectionals produced by AL CUBANA. Slight concern is the fact both are a month between runs, however need to trust stables have them fit and right to perform here. Main danger DELIGHTFUL FEELING. Happy to simply play around the two with proven Highway form in town.

SUGGEST: AL CUBANA (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 12), (F / 1, 12 / F / 1, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 84 over 2400m and there looks to be decent tempo up front with several pace runners drawn wide. Keen to play around two here, firstly top pick PURSUIT OF HONOUR who looks hard to beat at $3.80+ with most operators. Quickly going through the grades and reckon there will be bigger plans for the future. Ahead of best value in HERNE’S OAK @ $10+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) who we were on last time, running a nice 3rd at a price. Bit of guesswork regarding who will run the 2400m, however pretty confident the two suggested will.

SUGGEST: PURSUIT OF HONOUR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80, HERNE’S OAK (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 6 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 78 over 1500m and pace/tactics will be crucial here with no natural leaders or on pacers on paper. A bit of initiative from one of the jockeys could be enough to steal the race. Anticipating the one with the initiative might be Tommy Berry from barrier 2 aboard **UNBIASED** @ $5+ with CROWNBET and BET365. Raced on pace with some success a couple of preps back which is only 4 and 5 starts ago. Happy to play in his corner and given the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ASINARA, TRAFALGAR, SATYA and HOGMANAY, but race runs much deeper.

SUGGEST: **UNBIASED** (EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 10, 11 / 3, 5, 10, 11 / F / 7), (3, 5, 10, 11 / F / 3, 5, 10, 11 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1400m and a good, competitive race. We had plenty of success last week by backing those we liked on Oaks day, who were subsequently total forgive runs given on pace/near fence bias and another has appeared in the form of **ROCK FOR THE LADIES** @ $9+ with LUXBET and BET365. Last week we found GET THE PICTURE ($17) and PILOTE D’ESSAI ($21) given this exact same scenario, so fingers crossed for 3/3 with this gelding. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day and hopefully let the post Oaks day bias predictions continue. The other I want to play on is GOLD AMBITION @ $9.50+ (BET365) who has been trialling well and has been scratched recently, telling me they have been patiently waiting for the right conditions. Main dangers ONEROUS, SNOOPY, MOHER and WINE TALES.  

SUGGEST: **ROCK FORTHELADIES** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, GOLD AMBITION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1200m and another very even affair with many chances. Looks to be decent pace up front which is very important with hot fave INTERSTELLAR expected to be amongst any speed battle that may eventuate. Let’s hope it does as I’m willing to take her on at the very short $2.25+ price. Have landed with MAGIC ALIBI on top @ $6+ with WILLIAM HILL, just ahead of ROEINDA who I want a saver on (WIN only) at $7.50+ (WILLIAM HILL and LUXBET). Main dangers INTERSTELLAR and MADOTTI who could surprise fresh.

SUGGEST: MAGIC ALIBI (EACH WAY) @ $6+, ROEINDA (WIN) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / 1, 9 / F / 1, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1100m and a tricky finish. Pace/tactics important with not a great deal of pace up front so you would hope that all runners get their chance. Slight lean UPSCALE @ $3.20+ (UNIBET) ahead of one at a juicy price in ROSE OF MAN @ $13+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. Has had excuses at several runs this prep and can hopefully have a trouble free run for once from the good gate (2). Not a great deal amongst the rest in an open finish to the day.   

SUGGEST: UPSCALE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.20+, ROSE OF MAN (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8, 13 / F / 8, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $11.20+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: UNBIASED @ $5+, ROCK FOR THE LADIES @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: THE RUMOUR FILE @ $67+

#happypunting