3 November 2016 (Oaks Day racing at Flemington)

PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2015

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.87, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to headquarters (Flemington) for Oaks Day, day 3 of the 4 day carnival, after the rail was in the TRUE position on Saturday and Tuesday. Fingers crossed it plays fairly and all horses get their chance, pace dependant, however given the traffic and how they were already fanning wide Tuesday, expecting no disadvantage to be off the fence coming out wider. That’s the assumption we’ve made for today. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 70 for the fillies and mares over 1700m and this is an extremely tough start to the day. Speed map very difficult to lock down and with no natural leader in the big field, pace and tactics will be crucial, not to mention luck in running set to play a part. Looking to play a few at odds who look set to get the right runs, wide with cover, midfield or a touch worse. Firstly, DAISY’S JOY @ $9.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. If playing all three as suggested, just run with her on a WIN only basis, with the other two each way. Primed for this with a 4L win across the border in Balaklava. Next is ARTESIAN for the blue Godolphin army with James McDonald aboard @ $19+ with LUXBET. Form a bit better than it reads and gets 2.5kg swing on key rival HELL OR HIGHWATER here, which is needed given the 3.6L defeat, regardless good enough odds to take the gamble she can make up the extra distance. Finally, WITH A BIT OF DASH @ $31+ with LUXBET also. Going well in decent class, jumps up in distance which is the key. At the price happy to take the punt she can run it out. Time will tell. Main dangers HELL OR HIGHWATER, TAVI BAY, MOUNT OMEI and CHAMPAGNE READY. Race doesn’t end there, very deep and difficult race.

SUGGEST: DAISY’S JOY (WIN) @ $9.50+, ARTESIAN (EACH WAY) @ $19+, WITH A BIT OF DASH (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5, 18 / 3 / F / 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 90 over 1800m and another wide open big field. Leaning towards one here who I have steered clear of until now purely because it’s always being under the odds after a flashy first up run in early August. Ever since has been short fave at next three starts with 2 x 2nds and 1 x 5th to name, all decent runs and it looks like favourite punters are fed up and all of a sudden we get a decent price of $8+ with LUXBET. Also want to play GET THE PICTURE who is extremely generous odds at $21+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Will also be running on late, hopefully behind a decent tempo up front. Main danger DATA POINT, ahead of COOL CHAP, and SCHERZOSO.

SUGGEST: PILOTE D’ESSAI (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, GET THE PICTURE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (16 / 2, 17 / F / 2, 17), (1, 3, 16 / 2, 16, 17 / F / 2, 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Next are the greys and a race loved by many fans of the beautiful and unique greys. Even lot again, but at the risk of taking slight ‘unders’ given the appropriate name for Ladies day, think top weight ROCK FOR THE LADIES will be hard to beat @ $5+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Main danger FABULONH, ahead of MURT THE FLIRT. 

SUGGEST: ROCK FOR THE LADIES (EACH WAY) @ $5.00+, RUNNING DOUBLE (ROCK FOR THE LADIES, FABULONH / REFULGENT), FIRST FOUR (4, 9 / F / F / 1), (9 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 4: Now for the Melbourne Mile over you guessed it, 1600m and going with the tough, consistent, and importantly one who knows how to win in top weight **REFULGENT** @ $6.50+ with PALMERBET. Several here are going well, but several also have a knack of finding one better, hence think you can do worse than this boy, despite the decent impost of 60kg which needs to be carried. Can camp just behind the leading pack and peel wide on the turn. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger PAY UP BRO who should get decent tempo up front to suit, but is one who is yet to crack it at headquarters on the big occasion. Today just might be his day. Throw a blanket over the rest.

SUGGEST: **REFULGENT** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, RUNNING DOUBLE (REFULGENT / EXOCET, ROCKSTAR REBEL), FIRST FOUR (6 / F / F / 1), (F / 6 / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Next is a Listed event for the three year olds, to be run over 1800m and can’t go past favourite EXOCET here. As you will know, I’m not a fan of selecting $2.50+ (BET365) favourites, however am happy to do so if/when $2.50+ represents value, as I believe it does here. Several of these had an eye on the Derby, hence expecting them to be too dour over the 1800m distance, however this filly takes on the boys, after having an eye on the Thousand Guineas instead which is obviously run over 1600m. Extra 200m here shouldn’t prove a problem after crossing the line alongside I Am A Star, who then came out and saluted for dungeon followers in the Group 1 Myer Classic, last Saturday. That form reads exceptionally well for this and to make it even better, was on the worst part of the track, the inside which was simply quick sand for anyone who dared stay on the rail. Primary WIN only play, ahead of ROCKSTAR REBEL @ $7.50+ (WILLIAM HILL) who I suggest having a secondary saving WIN play on as I’m confident the winner should come from one of the two. Dangers RIGHTEOUS MAN, NEMRUD and ZOFFMAN.

SUGGEST: EXOCET (WIN – PRIMARY) @ $2.50+, ROCKSTAR REBEL (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 7 / 10, 13 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 6: Now for the Group 3 L’oreal Paris Stakes over 1400m and a very competitive affair and a half decent race to boot here. Plenty of form lines to try and line up, but despite conceding those short in the market will be hard to beat, think best value lies with **AMOVATIO** @ $13+ (most operators) and NINTH LEGION @ $16+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET, BET365). Both were super first up over less suitable shorter distances, both go well second up and much better suited over the 1400m. Both to appreciate a decent tempo up front and as is the case with several selections, hoping those off the pace are given every chance. At the odds, will make AMOVATIO a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers CLEARLY INNOCENT, RAGEESE, TAKEDOWN and AROD.

SUGGEST: **AMOVATIO** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, NINTH LEGION (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 11, 13 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 13 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

QUADDIES (added at 3:25pm AEDT):

FIELD / 1, 4, 6, 8 / 1 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 19

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8 / 3, 5, 7, 10, 14 / 1, 2, 5, 7, 13, 19

 

Race 7: Next is the Listed Mumms Stakes over 1000m and a good quality field assembled. Let’s hope to god they all come to the outside, so at least every runner can have their chance. First glance the two faves look to have the class in TERRAVISTA ($3.30+) and HELLBENT ($2.15+), however upon closer inspection and given the very short prices for both, have ended up looking to take them on with several at big odds to hopefully cause a boil-over. Instead, happy to play SHAF @ $24+ (SPORTSBET) and BULLPIT @ $41+ (BET365). Both very capable on their day, both have form down the straight, both like the shorter course 1000m and although they would probably need to pull out a personal best performance to knock off the faves, happy to take the juicy odds in the hope one of them does. Given current prices, will make *BULLPIT* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in HELLBENT and TERRAVISTA.

SUGGEST: SHAF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $24+, *BULLPIT* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, (FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / 1, 4, 6, 8 / F / 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Crown Oaks for the three year old fillies over 2500m, with YANKEE ROSE understandably all the rage at $1.65+. I’ve tried to get her beat, chopping and changing and flipping and turning, but just can’t find a way for it to happen. Interestingly this race is normally won by the best filly, with several in the past a slight or legitimate query at the trip (best example was Mosheen), however class has prevailed in most instances and see no reason why it won’t here. No need to remind anyone she finished alongside Hartnell in the Cox Plate and has been first class since day 1. Let’s hope they turn her out a little on the day, but regardless the $1.65+ currently on offer with most operators is decent enough value given her ability and suggest a decent WIN only play. Be sure to have a peanut each way on longshot LAMMA HILTON @ $81+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Whilst, main dangers of an upset lie with SEBRING DREAM, ELEONORA and HARLOW GOLD, ahead of MISSROCK, MOQUEEN and SMART AS YOU THINK for more exotic exotics. Best horse rule!

SUGGEST: YANKEE ROSE (WIN) @ $1.65+, LAMMA HILTON (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 7 / 1 / F / 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10) (CONFIDENCE 80%) 

 

Race 9: And the final event of the day is also for the three year old fillies, this time in the form of the Group 3 Crown Resorts Plate over 1100m. Competitive finish, with a slight lean to KENTUCKY MISS on a WIN only basis @ $6+ with most operators. Then want secondary plays on two at odds, firstly ROSA CAROLINA @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) who we were on last time at a similar price when she was super in finishing 4th after being caught for most of the trip. Then finally something on one we were going to be one Cup Day, who was saved for this in top weight *SELENIA* at a very juicy $41+ with most operators. Given the odds, will make SELENIA a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger SPRIGHT, ahead of HEAR THE CHANT, SUPER TOO and MISS WONDERLAND.

SUGGEST: KENTUCKY MISS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $6+, ROSA CAROLINA (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, *SELENIA* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 5 / F / 1, 2, 7, 13, 19), (2, 4, 7, 19 / 4, 5 / F / 1, 2, 7, 13, 19) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

QUADDIES (added at 3:25pm AEDT):

FIELD / 1, 4, 6, 8 / 1 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 19

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9 / 1, 4, 6, 8 / 3, 5, 7, 10, 14 / 1, 2, 5, 7, 13, 19

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $19.70+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: REFULGENT @ $6.50+, AMOVATIO @ $13+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BULLPIT @ $41+, SELENIA @ $41+

#happypunting