SATURDAY NOVEMBER 5, 2016
Saturday racing returns to CANTERBURY PARK with the penetrometer 4.58, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CANTERBURY with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, especially after the disaster which was Flemington on Thursday. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1 (updated at 10:15am AEDT): We start with the two year olds over 1100m and as usual, plenty of guesswork with many debutants involved. After watching trials, think the value lies with COOL MOVER @ $12+ with CROWNBET and WILLIAM HILL, following soft trial win. Also gets a handy 2kg claim from Atkins so gets in with a featherweight of 52kg and drawn nicely in barrier 2. Trial win was also over 1000m which is handy from a fitness perspective. Also a WIN only play MILANESE GIRL @ $3.30+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Main dangers MALAHAT and TEASPSOON. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: COOL MOVER (EACH WAY) @ $12+, MILANESE GIRL (WIN) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5, 8 / 4 / F), (2, 8 / 5 / 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2 (updated at 10:15am AEDT): Next is a benchmark 67 for the three year olds over 1550m and disappointedly only 5 runners. Originally only 2 acceptances, before they were extended. 1, 2 here were the original acceptances, before numbers 3, 4, 5 jumped in after realising the small field. We originally put up FULL THROTTLE to get a soft lead at a decent price, however is now out, hence think the Waller pair will fight it out, although minimal value on offer. Given the better odds and expected soft lead, slight lean MISS BALLANTINE @ $4.20+ (WILLIAM HILL) on the quick backup after winning on Cup Day. Suggest a WIN only play. Like what I saw of CHAUSSURE last time and think he will be hard to beat, but rock bottom odds at now $1.65+ with a decent impost of 61kg. If keen, prefer to play through multies and/or one out early quaddie leg to minimise risk with standalone WIN only investment.
SUGGEST: MISS BALLANTINE (WIN) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1 / 2, 4 / 2, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 85 to be run over 1100m. Tricky race, with pace/tactics set to be key. Slight lean LUCKY METEOR @ $6+ (BET365) after running extremely slick time last time at Grafton. Gets good weight relief and should have a hassle free time up front to hopefully pinch a race winning break on the turn. Throw another blanket over the rest, with very little between several.
SUGGEST: LUCKY METEOR (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Class 2 Highway Handicap over 1550m. There doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper and as a result looking to play around those closer/on the pace as opposed to several in the market who will get back. Best value lies with D’BEAK @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) despite again drawing badly in 12, however should be able to cross easy enough here. Also give top weight DYNAMIC CONCEPT a chance @ $21+ (BET365) despite 1550m not winning over any distance less than 1900m. However, first up run over the even less suitable 1200m was great for this, hence no reason why he can’t step up to the plate here at odds. Finally, longshot dabble on *VERBAL* @ $51+ (WILLIAM HILL) who was a late entry to this field. Given the odds, will make *VERBAL* a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main danger CLIFF who is currently $6+. Throw a blanket over the rest, several big ‘unders’ in my opinion.
SUGGEST: D’BEAK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, DYNAMIC CONCEPT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, *VERBAL* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (9 / F / F / 1, 10, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for the Ranvet over 1200m and going to keep this one short and sweet. Think SNOOPY @ $3.30+ (LUXBET) finally finds the right race, after a freshen up and drop in distance, following a good trial. Frustrating run for connections of late and think Team Hawkes would be desperately looking to get him back in the winner’s stalls for an overdue win, despite racing very well in better grade in recent times. Main dangers KURO, INZ’N’OUT, GRUNDERZEIT and SUSPENSE. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: SNOOPY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5, 7 / F / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1250m and suggesting a play on one who we liked last Saturday, before he was scratched and saved for this instead. The one in question is **WELL HARDLEY EVER** @ $8+ with LUXBET and WILLIAM HILL. Looks good each way value and finally a race with all three place dividends. Given the price, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in favourites REINCARNATE and SIR PLUSH who battle for the third time straight.
SUGGEST: **WELL HARDLEY EVER** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Next is the Ashbury Handicap over 1550m and simply running with the ‘best horse’ rule here in the form of RELIGIFY @ $1.95+ with BET365. The ever so slight query is the trip, however has run well over the longer 1600m in a better listed event, and back on top of the ground here, without too much pressure, should be hard to catch. Suggest on a WIN only basis. Main dangers GODS IN HIM and RED EXCITEMENT.
SUGGEST: RELIGIFY (WIN) @ $1.95+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 78 over 1900m and think this sets up nicely for **ESCHIELLE** who has been just okay first two runs this prep, but not gets to right trip after being competitive in better grade last prep. $5+ on offer with UBET, LUXBET and PALMERBET and should be able to sit behind a decent tempo up front. Just needs a touch of luck on the turn, given he is coming out of barrier 3, hence may need to try and edge out for some clear running. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Secondary play on TAKEWING at a tidy $14+ with most operators, after being on the wrong part of the track last time. Main dangers ASCOT RED @ $12+ (BET365) and MULTIFACETS. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: **ESCHIELLE** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, TAKEWING (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 77 for the fillies and mares over 1100m and an interesting finish with plenty of pace expected on paper, which will hopefully set things up for the closers in the lucky last. Want to spread bets around three runners, two primary WIN only plays on ROSE OF MAN and INFRA DIG, both @ $6+. Then a secondary each way play on *PIENKNA* @ $34+ with most operators. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers FIFTEEN SUNFLOWERS and MAGIC ALIBI.
SUGGEST: ROSE OF MAN (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $6+, INFRA DIG (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $6+, *PIENKNA* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (1, 9 / 4, 6, 12 / F / 4, 6, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a $13.62+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: WELL HARDLEY EVER @ $8+, ESCHIELLE @ $5+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: VERBAL @ $51+, PIENKNA @ $34+