SATURDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 5.00, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with fine conditions once again and the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position last week. Expecting no disadvantage to be on pace, closer to the fence, but be sure to keep a close eye on how track is playing early on for best guide.
Race 1: We start with another small field of 5 x two year olds and hard to go past favourite here in COORG who looked uber impressive in trial after sitting last and gobbling them up with easy, hands and heels. $1.90+ with most operators looks the right price and the fact there are only 5 in the race, should mean not so much ground to make up from last to first. Suggest a WIN only running double into Zumbelina in the next. Throw a blanket over the rest. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: COORG (WIN) @ $1.90+, RUNNING DOUBLE (COORG / ZUMBELINA) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 2: Next is a SWP (Set weights and penalties) for the three year olds and another small field assembled. No reason to jump off ZUMBELINA @ $2.15+ (LUXBET) who we’ve been on of late and is looking for 4 straight wins. 58kg is actually a drop of 2kg, hard to beat. Main danger is ACHI BABA who returned very well last start and has since trialled nicely.
SUGGEST: ZUMBELINA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.15+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1 / 2, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 3: Highway Handicap over 1400m and there looks to be a distinct lack of pace on paper here which looks set to play right into the hands of THE NICKSTER @ $2.70+ (most operators). Dare say I have never suggested three short priced favourites to open the card, however on this occasion all three look hard to beat and have come out as clear top picks. Suggest primary WIN only play, ahead of I TOLD GEORGIE @ $8+ with most operators with Blake Shinn set to at least ensure she is within striking range with others set to get what I consider to be too far back (i.e. FALCO).
SUGGEST: THE NICKSTER (WIN) @ $2.70+, I TOLD GEORGIE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 4 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and expecting the winner to come from one of three here in GIRL SUNDAY, DIXIE CHICK or PEPPERBERRY. Pace/tactics set to be key but also expecting these three to all settle in the lead/just behind leaders. Given the price differential then must lean with PEPPERBERRY at an attractive each way price of $10+ with LUXBET. Also want WIN only play DIXIE CHICK @ $3.70+ (UNIBET) who gets a 1.5kg weight swing on GIRL SUNDAY to hopefully turn the tables after hitting the line together last time. In saying that, Joshua Parr must go forward and sit behind the leaders from gate 1 or else it will be tough. Main danger the obvious in GIRL SUNDAY.
SUGGEST: PEPPERBERRY (EACH WAY) @ $10+, DIXIE CHICK (WIN) @ $3.70, FIRST FOUR (2 / 5, 10 / F / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1100m and this is a very competitive affair with pace/tactics and how track is playing set to be key. There actually looks to be decent pace up front so those off the pace may be given a better chance here, pending how track is playing. Slight lean here TOP STRIKER @ $7+ who I’ve always had an opinion of at this level and is in good form. Just needs an ounce of luck from the gate to slot in with cover ideally around 5th in the run. If so, should be right in the finish. Then want something on blowout hope *KUDERO* at a crazy $61+ with WILLIAM HILL. Has the ability at this level. Given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over many others in a very open and deep affair.
SUGGEST: TOP STRIKER (EACH WAY) @ $7, *KUDERO* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 7 / F / 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 77 Christmas Handicap over 2000m and a quick glance over this field would make many dungeon followers smile after backing THE RUMOUR FILE last time and securing up to $121 on the Betfair exchange, or $81 fixed with corporates or $64 on the tote. Either way, happy days. Today won’t be so easy, given get back style and back up to 61kg. There actually doesn’t seem to be a great deal of pace, and when factoring this in with weights, there’s one that jumps out in the form of **HUNTER JACK** at $6.50+ with BET365. Gets very handy 3kg claim from Heywood meaning he meets rivals from THE RUMOUR FILE race better at the weights, plus hopefully getting better conditions to suit with softer run up front. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MONTAUK (also decently weighted) and TRAFALGAR.
SUGGEST: **HUNTER JACK** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving 3, 4, 8 / F), (3, 4 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 91 TAB Handicap over 1400m with little between two I have ahead of the rest here in the form of **HIGH MIDNIGHT** @ $6.50+ (most operators) and BELIEVE YOURSELF @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET). HIGH MIDNIGHT was very good first up and normally improves second up and also gets in okay at the weights with all things considered, including last prep when advanced all the way to a near miss in black type – 0.7L defeat in Listed Scone Cup to Pajaro. Expect Schofield to ride positively which should be no disadvantage and should be right in the finish. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. We were on BELIEVE YOURSELF last time at Ballarat and quite simply Katlyn Mallyon pulled the wrong reign by deciding to take a sit behind Gallant Harmony, and nobody was going to get past Gallant Harmony if left in front to lead on such a leader’s biased track. Happy to simply play around the two for the most part, ahead of main dangers REINCARNATE, WIN TALES, ALL CERISE and HIMALAYA DREAM, the latter two somewhat inconsistent of late but more than capable on their day.
SUGGEST: **HIGH MIDNIGHT** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, BELIEVE YOURSELF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 11, 12 / 3, 4, 6, 7, 11, 12 / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the benchmark 78 handicap to be run over 1500m. Intriguing race with many chances with pace/tactics key with decent pace on paper, including a couple of key speed chances drawn wide, notably HOGMANAY and GOLD AMBITION, hence will need some luck. Have settled with the better value runners despite a bunch of runners ending up at close to level top raters. The two in question are both from the Bjorn Baker stable in GOLD AMBITION @ $15+ (WILLIAM HILL) and EMBLEY @ $14+ with most operators. GOLD AMBITION is the class runner and did have excuses first up and normally goes better second up. Needs a touch of luck from the gate but at the price happy to take the punt. EMBLEY ran well last time behind key rivals HOGMANAY and UNBIASED and 1.5kg swing (UNBIASED) and 2.5kg swing (HOGMANAY) to try and turn tables. Don’t want the gelding getting too far back, but if can settle in 5th-6th like last time, might just be the place to be with some pace up front. Main dangers UNBIASED and HOGMANAY, but doesn’t end there in a good race with many legitimate winning chances.
SUGGEST: GOLD AMBITION (EACH WAY) @ $15+, EMBLEY (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (7, 11 / 1, 5, 7, 11 / F / 1, 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m and this looks a very tough finish in a race I’m not overly enthused about. Happy to play around a couple at bigger odds starting with the Waller trained SONIC SWISH @ $11+ (most operators), ahead of a couple of more speculative plays in the form of the Snowden trained ROCK MYLADY @ $41+ (WILLIAM HILL) and *ISORICH* @ $51+ with WILLAIM HILL. SONIC SWISH is one I have time for and think is one of the better horses in the race here, the query is the terrible gate which will force him back on a track which may not suit those coming from that far back. Berry can try and position the gelding in a more forward position, closer to midfield but the risk is getting caught wide. Happy to take the punt at the price, given the class factor. ROCK MYLADY trialled well enough for a $41+ pot in a race like this. In very good stable who you always need to respect fresh and gets a very handy 3kg claim. While *ISORICH* is simply big overs at $51+ despite the bad gate. Given the bigger price, happy to make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest in a tough finish.
SUGGEST: SONIC SWISH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, ROCK MYLADY (EACH WAY) @ $41+, ISORICH (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10 / F / 3, 5), (F / F / 10 / 3, 5) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Average odds a juicy $15.43+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: HUNTER JACK @ $6.50+, HIGH MIDNIGHT @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: KUDERO @ $61+, ISORICH @ $51+