FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2016
We return to racing at MOONEE VALLEY on a Friday night with the penetrometer reading 4.56, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +5M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY with the rail out +5M, which in the past would normally equate to leaders being advantaged, however the track has been playing quite even in recent times with lanes 2-3 away from the fence the place to be. In saying that, I walked the track this morning an I’m anticipating a return to what we would normally be used to and that is leaders/those close to the fence being advantaged. As always, be sure to watch early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a maiden event for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Plenty of form lines to line up. Liked the way VERY DOGMATIC @ $9.50+ (WILLIAM HILL) kept hitting the line last time and from barrier 7 can be right on the pace and hopefully be very hard to run down. Only a moderate tempo on paper which should suit. Also want to a play on one who did a bit wrong and was caught wide the trip on debut in RUN TO PARADISE @ $21+ with BET365. Total forgive and can hopefully step up to city grade after a freshen up. Can’t afford to miss the jump like last time and from barrier 1 has the ability to get a soft lead. Main dangers SALLYBROOK who was great on debut, the main query here being the barrier (13), meaning a bit of luck is required. Must also respect any support for AGHNA first time for new Hayes stables who are flying and ARMENIA.
SUGGEST: VERY DOGMATIC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, RUN TO PARADISE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 11 / 2, 7, 10, 11, 12 / F / 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 3000m and not sure how they are going to beat BULLISH STOCK remaining in the same grade as easy defeat last time and only going up 0.5kg after the claim. Extremely hard to beat and the price is actual right at $1.60+ with UBET. Suggest a WIN only play and/or an anchor in your Friday/weekend multies. Then want something on the Stanaway pair at crazy odds in *TRINIDADIAN* @ $201+ with SPORTSBET and BLACK SOUL @ $51+ with most operators. *TRINIDADIAN* ducked and weaved after finding plenty of trouble last time and despite the jump in grade and the fact I don’t think the track will suit those off the pace, 200/1 is simply too good to bypass. On price alone, a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the night. Case for any runner who elects to lead, main dangers VERREAUX and REAL JAZZ.
SUGGEST: BULLISH STOCK (WIN) @ $1.60+, *TRINIDADIAN* (EACH WAY) @ $201+, BLACK SOUL (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 8, 10), (3, 4 / 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 3: Next is a benchmark 70 for the fillies and mares over 1000m. Slight lean SCANDIMANIA @ $3.70+ (BET365) after winning well first up over the shorter 955m. No reason to think she can’t make it 2/2 this prep. Then want something on another at big odds in *SETTLER’S ROAD* @ $61+ with BET365. Gets 4.5kg swing on SCANIMANIA for 6.5L defeat and although that normally doesn’t equate to turning the tables (nor the expected get back racing style), but the price differential of $3.7 v $61 is massively inflated considering. Happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers ANATOLA (who may be best horse in race) and MISS GIDGET.
SUGGEST: SCANDIMANIA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.70+, *SETTLER’S ROAD* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / 1, 5, 7, 12 / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Next is the Inglis 55 second challenge and despite the small field, they are going to absolutely fly. Very little between most runners here, hence value will be the key as I personally think all should be a similar price. For this reason, need to lean towards the two coming out of the Pakenham race won by Invincible Al (the smart Wise Hero 2nd) and that is DIVERTENTE @ $14+ (BET365, LUXBET) and SEGOVIA @ $8.50+ (WILLIAM HILL). Happy to play DIVERTENTE each way and SEGOVIA on a WIN only basis. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: DIVERTENTE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, SEGOVIA (WIN) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is a benchmark 70 over 1000m and really like one at a very juicy price here in the form of STINGRAY @ $17+ (SPORTSBET). Was on last time at a juicy price at Pakenham and run was very good, hence very surprised about the price on offer here. There looks to be decent tempo here, so although I expect the track to favour those on pace, all is pace dependant and if they go hard enough, then those behind get their chance. Main dangers CORE BREACH, GO DOWN, KILOWATT and MANIHI MISCHIEF.
SUGGEST: STINGRAY (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 7, 9 / 3, 5, 7, 9 / F / 6), (3, 5, 7, 9 / F / 3, 5, 7, 9 / F / 6), (F / 3, 5, 7, 9 / 3, 5, 7, 9 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Next is a benchmark 64 over 2040m and a competitive affair, where pace/tactics and how the track is playing key. On the assumption and basis that Oliver leads on **BAUBO**, which he should be doing from the good gate (4), then think she is definitely the one to beat. Down in grade after chasing some half decent opposition in recent times, and only raises 0.5kg for what looks a much easier race on paper here. Keen each way @ $6.50+ with WILLIAM HILL. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers DEFENCE WITNESS, POPPIHOLLA, DESTINATION TUCSON and SPRING ACTION.
SUGGEST: **BAUBO** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 10, 13 / F / 4, 8, 10, 13 / 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Penultimate event of the night is a benchmark 70 over 1600m and another competitive race where pace/tactics are set to be key as well as how the track is playing. Leaning towards **RELENTLESS** @ $12+ who looks great each way value, while I want to play TEMPERED @ $7.50+ (WILLIAM HILL) also. Given the odds, will make RELENTLESS a BEST VALUE bet of the night. Both need a touch of luck fropm the gate, but assuming they get across to a lead/just behind leader position, no worse than one off rail, then both should be hard to catch. Happy to play around the two.
SUGGEST: **RELENTLESS** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, TEMPERED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 10 / F / 5, 10), (F / F / 5, 10 / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: And we finish with a benchmark 70 also over the mile (1600m) and this one looks quite self-explanatory on paper. Keen on BALLYBRIT @ $3.60+ with most operators, to lead all the way, and the 1.5kg claim to ‘just’ be enough to hold off main danger and race favourite ROYAL APPLAUSE who wins on weights and measures, but I think the advantage of the fence/leaders position should be enough to offset the weight concern. PLAYFUL ROSIE the next best. Narrow finish to the night, with just the three needed in the last leg of your quaddie.
SUGGEST: BALLYBRIT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (roving 4, 6, 7 / F), (6, 7 / 4, 6, 7 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds $15.32+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: BAUBO @ $6.50+, RELENTLESS @ $12+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: TRINIDADIAN @ $201+, SETTLER’S ROAD @ $61+