SATURDAY DECEMBER 17, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 6.11, hence currently looking at a HEAVY (9) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK for the first time after a decent break with the rail back in the TRUE position. Given the conditions, expecting no disadvantage to be off the pace coming down towards the middle of the track, especially as the day goes on. As usual, be sure to keep an eye on early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the class 2 Highway Handicap over 1200m and this is a terrible race, with plenty of guesswork required with a distinct lack of heavy track experience on paper, let alone half decent form. As a result, can’t go near anything short in the market with any confidence and as a result will have a couple of smaller plays at odds on a couple at least with experience on the heavy going. The two in question are *BELAMETALICA* @ $31+ (most operators) and YOURS MINE OURS @ $21+ (BET365). Given the price will make *BETAMETALICA* a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: *BELAMETALICA* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, YOURS MINE OURS (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / F / 3, 4, 15 / 7, 12) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 85 over 1600m and don’t see any major reason why REDOUTABLE HEART can’t get the job done again for dungeon followers @ $3.60+ (LUXBET) after saluting as our bet value bet of the day last time. Happy to play on a WIN only basis (given current price) in addition to each way play on stablemate METALLIC CROWN @ $15+ (BET365). Main dangers MOHER, UNBIASED and MORE THAN FABULOUS.
SUGGEST: REDOUTABLE HEART (WIN) @ $3.60+, METALLIC CROWN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 10, 13 / 5, 6 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Next is the two year old Inglis Nursery over 1000m and any form analyst who respects times, had to be extremely impressed by SHE WILL REIGN’s debut victory, clocking an incredible 56.04 smashing many older horses on the same day. It all comes down to whether she handles the track and can only trust the stable to only run if at least semi-confident. Going to let the market do the talking and barring a big betting drift happy to play on a WIN only basis at $2+ with BET365.
SUGGEST: SHE WILL REIGN (WIN) @ $2+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Next is a benchmark 85 for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Tough, competitive affair but a decent race to boot. Have always had an opinion of TREE OF JESSE who regularly finds herself in the wrong type of race, but get the feeling this is right up her alley @ $21+ with BET365. Also, want something on HETTY HEIGHTS @ $10+ with BET365. Both will relish the heavy conditions, appreciate any advantage to those off the pace and both set to improve from good first up runs. Main danger KINSHACHI.
SUGGEST: TREE OF JESSE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, HETTY HEIGHTS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (15 / 5, 12, 15 / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Next is the Listed Christmas Cup over 2400m and a good little summer race, despite the heavy conditions. The conditions play perfectly into the hands of **DESTINY’S KISS** who looks a great each way play here at $6+ with BET365. 2400m on a heavy track is arguably this gelding’s perfect scenario and is in decent form to boot. Given the price will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want a play on top weight INDEX LINKED @ $15+ (BET365) who now gets to right trip also and gets the ‘handy’ Bowman aboard. Heavy track the slight query, but has run well on rain affected ground, so assuming he can get through it. Monitor market for guide to stable confidence. Main danger BEYOND THANKFUL who also got us the chocolates last time after securing 50/1, the main query today the barrier, however does have Shinn aboard to help counteract, ahead of SOVIET COURAGE (up in grade, but will relish the conditions also).
SUGGEST: **DESTINY’S KISS** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, INDEX LINKED (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7 / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is the open Inglis Sprint over 1100m and an intriguing race. Slight lean here to SUPER TOO @ $4.20+ with CROWNBET and UBET. Has done very little wrong in short career and no reason to think she can’t go on with it here in arguably a lesser field than she has taken on in recent times. Also want a play on SAMADOUBT @ $31+ with BET365 and SPORTSBET, a query on the ground, but unknown and in a similar boat to several other here and today. Price good enough to take the punt. Main dangers CALANDA and MISS DEBUTANTE in another good race.
SUGGEST: SUPER TOO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, SAMADOUBT (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (5, 15 / 2, 5, 11, 15 / F / 2, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 2 Villiers Stakes over the famous Randwick mile (1600m). Cracking race for this time of year and plenty of legitimate chances. There is an element of FABRIZIO or ‘wide open’ and I’m leaning towards the ‘wide open’ basket although I have serious respect for FABRIZIO who just keep getting the job done and is tough as nails which is needed for the Randwick mile on a heavy track. Will leave for savers, multies and/or narrow quaddie saver, but at the shorter price think there is better value on offer. Starting with *AMOVATIO* who I really like at $17+ with BET365. Likes the conditions, likes the track, likes the distance, is in form, gets the best in the business Bowman to ride and should get a race run to suit. Plenty of ticks at an excellent price. Normally save bigger odds for BEST LONGSHOTS of the day, but $17+ is what many others would consider a longshot and given the hot race, happy to make *AMOVATIO* one here today. Also want a play on PAJARO @ $11+ with most operators, similarly gets right conditions to try and return to the winner’s stalls after having excuses of late. Main dangers FABRIZIO as mentioned, RUDY, BERRY DELICIOUS (at a price) and am wary of SARRASIN first time in Australia. Race doesn’t end there. Many chances.
SUGGEST: *AMOVATIO* (EACH WAY) @ $17+, PAJARO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 13, 16 / 2, 7, 8 / F / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is the Listed Razor Sharp over 1200m. Race has been decimated with scratchings, but still a decent little race. Happy to stick with **INZ’N’OUT** at a tidy $10+ with LUXBET and BET365. The gelding did dungeon followers a big favour last time by flying home for 4th at a juicy price allowing us to snag a piece of a nice first four when key rival here KURO saluted. Gets 2kg swing in the weights, and well weighted against other rivals out of same race (BROOK ROAD, SHIRAZ) given finishing positions and margins last time. And best of all, will relish the conditions. Happy to play on an each way basis. Given the price will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger KURO. But doesn’t end there. Most runners with ‘some’ claims.
SUGGEST: **INZ’N’OUT** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish a great day’s racing with a benchmark 78 over 1400m and a poor finish to the day with a race I’m not overly enthused about. Can make a case for COLOSSEUM KING @ $13+ with SPORTSBET. Won well first up over the less suitable shorter trip and although the same query applies here, it is an extra 200m and the conditions probably amplify that somewhat further. Happy to play each way, in addition to EMINENT DUKE @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Has been running okay without winning, and finds a weaker race here and gets in well after the 3kg claim. Happy to simply play around the two, throw a blanket over the rest, with plenty of guesswork required.
SUGGEST: COLOSSEUM KING (EACH WAY) @ $13+, EMINENT DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 16 / F / 6, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $14.11+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DESTINY’S KISS @ $6+, INZ’N’OUT @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: BETAMETALICA @ $31+, AMOVATIO @ $17+