SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2015
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading unknown, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to headquarters (Flemington) after the rail was out +6M last time and suited those closer to the pace/fence. Fingers crossed it plays fairly with the rail out +9M, however thinking any expected on pace advantage to be offset by an apparent headwind in the straight. Gut feel is prime spot is just behind the leaders, with cover, not needing to peel out until as late as possible. As usual, important to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start the day with the two year olds and unfortunately despite great improvements with ensuring punters are exposed to trial form prior to these races taking place, in this instance far too much guesswork with several simply unseen. As a result, steering clear.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 84 over 1400m and this is a tough. It’s probably a case of LADY SELKIRK or anything, and finding it hard to work out. What does look a given is a somewhat moderate pace on paper which should suit those closer to the pace. Very slight lean, without a great deal of confidence for JACQUI’S JOY @ $7+ with BET365. Assuming they go forward from gate 2 and sit just behind the leader(s) (Don’t want to lead, with an apparent headwind in play) and if so should give a sight. Main danger LADY SELKIRK but open race, most with legitimate claims.
SUGGEST: JACQUI’S JOY (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for a benchmark 70 for the three year old fillies and hard to go past the favourite MISS WONDERLAND @ $1.65+ with UBET and BET365. We’re tipping Super Too in a much better race than this in Sydney today, hence she must be hard to beat in this grade. Main danger PONTE ROMA and MILLINERY. As usual, whetre possible try and play through multies, early quaddies and similar to avoid risks associated with big standalone investments.
SUGGEST: MISS WONDERLAND (WIN) @ $1.65+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 4: Next is another benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1400m. Like SNITZSON @ $4.40+ here, but just needs some luck from the wide gate. There doesn’t look a great deal of pace on paper and as a result, hoping they can cut across and get a spot on pace with cover. One out, one back would be ideal. Main dangers SOHO RUBY, BALLET MASTER and GRUOSI.
SUGGEST: SNITZSON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8 / F / F / 1), (2, 5, 8 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Next is the open Skipton Handicap over 2500m and can’t go past one we have rated highly of late and saluted for followers at a price on Stakes day in BOOM TIME. $3+ is ‘just’ good enough to play with most operators, the only slight query is the trip, however this should be offset by a relatively soft tempo up front. However, don’t want to lead, want a spot just behind leaders. Main danger PUCCINI, ahead of LORD VAN PERCY who has been well backed.
SUGGEST: BOOM TIME (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Next is an open event down the straight over 1100m and this looks a very open race. Looking to play around a couple at juicy prices in the form of DECISION TIME @ $21+ (UBET, BET365) and LONROCKSTAR @ $14+ (most operators), both fresh for this and more than capable at this level. Main dangers BEAU RADA, SHAKESPEAREAN LASS, ahead of two at big odds in GENERAL TRUCE and I’M ABLAZE.
SUGGEST: DECISION TIME (EACH WAY) @ $21+, LONROCKSTAR (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5, 14 / 7, 8 / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Next is a benchmark 84 and although I rate GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (who won for dungeon followers last time) very highly, just wary of the short $2+ from a wide gate (15) here. Could be good enough to sit wide and still be too good, but the price is just not attractive enough considering. Prefer to play PRIMA (who gets 2.5kg on the fave for 2.8L defeat) at a juicy $18+ (LUXBET). Also, happy to have a play on one we tipped successfully at a price ($17) two back as a standalone Friday night special in GET THE PICTURE @ $11+. Main danger GALLIC CHIEFTAIN.
SUGGEST: PRIMA (EACH WAY) @ $18+, GET THE PICTURE (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (roving 10, 13, 16 / F), (10 / 15 / F / 13, 16) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Penultimate event is an open event over the mile and happy to take on MIHANY here at the short quote on the assumption that this head wind stays around until race 8. If so, very happy to play around two who had their last start in Wodonga of all places in the form of **LOYALTY MAN** @ $5.50+ (most operators) and *KOURKHAM* @ $20+ with SPORTSBET. **LOYALTY MAN** accepted for a couple of tougher races up north today, but they have elected to stay in Victoria for this ‘easier’ affair. Should be able to stalk the favourite and peel out at the right time. Happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also keen on *KOURKHAM* who has come up a big price and gets big weight swing on top pick LOYALTY MAN for a narrow defeat first up. Given the price happy to make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day and like a lot each way.
SUGGEST: **LOYALTY MAN** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *KOURKHAM* (EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6, 7 / F / 6, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: And we finish a benchmark 78 over 1100m. Tricky finish with several very short in the market. Happy to play **ROMAN FIZZ** instead at a tidy $13+ with most operators. Form is good for this, and at the price, happy to make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a speculative play *DANGER CLOSE* @ $51+ (WILLIAM HILL) despite disappointing run last time. At the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in STELLAR COLLISION, ANGRY GEE and WOLF CRY.
SUGGEST: **ROMAN FIZZ** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *DANGER CLOSE* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 10 / 5, 6 / F / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $16.38+ per suggested runner
** BEST VALUE **: LOYALTY MAN @ $5.50+, ROMAN FIZZ @ $13+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: KOURKHAM @ $20+, DANGER CLOSE @ $51+