13 February 2016 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

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ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 4.89, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface, a dry surface in Sydney…incredible!

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail out +3M, after it was in the TRUE position last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the improved track on the back of weeks/months of much softer tracks in Sydney.

 

Race 1: We will watch and learn with the two year olds in the opener, with only 6 runners. Be sure to take a good look in the yard, if keen on anything. PRIZED ICON does look the one to beat on exposed form, but @ $2.20+ bit skinny for mine.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 85 over 2400m. Would have been all over ANOTHER COCKTAIL finally getting the right trip and a dry surface, but has surprisingly been saved for another day. As a result, now like stablemate SPRINGBOK FLYER at a tidy $9.50+ with SPORTSBET. Great each way value with all three dividends available. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **SPRINGBOK FLYER** (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Group 2 for the 3YO fillies over 1200m and another big scratching with GHISONI all the rage and rightly so as I personally thought would have been extremely hard to beat here. Top pick now STAY WITH ME up from Melbourne @ $4+ with UNIBET. Suggest a WIN only play, while best value TEMPT ME NOT @ $19+ (UNIBET), hence a smaller each way play. No third dividend. Main dangers all, besides bottom weight PERASINO who is outclassed significantly here.

SUGGEST: STAY WITH ME (WIN) @ $4+, TEMPT ME NOT (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 6 / 1 / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 4: Class 3 over 1800m, and although I’m not overly keen on the race, do think the top weight KING’S OFFICER is there for a reason and can get the chocolates at $4.80+. Throw a blanket over the rest, where you could do worse than work around the better jockeys, as there doesn’t look to be a great deal between them. Main dangers FAIRYLAND and SCRUFF.

SUGGEST: KING’S OFFICER (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 11 / F / 1), (F / F / 4, 11 / 1), (4, 11 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Group 3 over 1200m. If RICH ENUFF is back to his best with new Snowden stable, then should be terribly hard to beat here @ $3.10+. Suggest waiting until close to jump time and should the money/support be there, then play, if there is a notable drift, recommend steering clear and holding fire. Similar case to Pride of Dubai last week, unseen for a while, notable drift, ran poorly and has since been retired. Best value as long as those off the pace are getting their chance is AUSSIES LOVE SPORT @ $10+ with most operators.

SUGGEST: RICH ENUFF (WIN) @ $3.10+, AUSSIES LOVE SPORT (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 85 over the mile. Top pick definitely DUIBIO who will be hard to beat @ $3.20+, still suggest a WIN only play if keen, but is starting to get into skinny odd territory. If less than $3 then probably start looking to bolster odds through multies and/or one out/skinny quaddie leg. Best value is in the form of TESTASHADOW who is going great guns even on usually unsuitable softer tracks, hence should only improve on a better track, although meets a few handy types here. $8+ with SPORTSBET a good each way bet with all three dividends available and $2.25+ place on offer fixed.

SUGGEST: DUIBIO (WIN) @ $3.20+, TESTASHADOW (EACH WAY) @ $8+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Group 2 Apollo Stakes over 1400m, which brings about the return of our new star of the turf in Cox Plate winner WINX. Was nothing short of sensational last prep and no reason to think she drops off this prep. However, if she’s vulnerable it’s today and as a result just looking to explore more valuable betting propositions instead of jumping into the $1.50.Think best value definitely lies in the form of **CENTRE PIVOT** at a very juicy $19+ with LUXBET. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in WINX, SOLICIT and DIBAYANI.

SUGGEST: **CENTRE PIVOT** (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 10 / F / F / 7), (F / 4, 8, 10 / 4, 8, 10 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 8: Group 3 Triscay Stakes for the mares over 1200m. Pace/tactics key with only moderate speed on paper here. Good race, with top pick here PEEPING @ $3.20+ with CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Best value most definitely *ADORABEEL* @ $41+ with most operators. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: PEEPING (WIN) @ $3.20+, *ADORABEEL* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1200m. Tricky finish, but want to play around two at the top of the weights here, both at juicy prices, so let’s hope the handicapper has got this one right. The two in question are MY FAVOURITE @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) and RELIGIFY @ $16+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Their best more than good enough to win this, expect RELIGIFY to improve on a firm track which he’s been waiting for. Given the odds, will make our BEST VALUE bets of the day.

SUGGEST: MY FAVOURITE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, RELIGIFY (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / F / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $11.98+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SPRINGBOK FLYER @ $9.50+, CENTRE PIVOT @ $19+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: ADORABEEL @ $41+