ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY MARCH 12, 2016
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 4.55, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail back in the TRUE position after it was out +3M three weeks’ back. The trail/rail position does have a tendency to force riders to get off the fence, however given there does look to be a lack of pace in many races, hence even leaders/on pacers should get their chance to peel 2-3 off the fence as they turn should this be the better going. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with the Group 3 Sky High Stakes over 2000m. HARTNELL does look the standout, but rock bottom odds at $1.80+, especially now with PEMBERLEY out. If keen, recommend playing through multies/multiples instead of standalone investment. Pace/tactics here will be key with no crazy tempo expected up front and only a small field. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a couple of mid race moves which could completely change the complexion of the race. If so, do give the Waller duo of WHO SHOT THEBARMAN and GRAND MARSHAL a chance at $9+ and $21+ respectively. Every runner with some claim, but given the odds might just go something small win, slightly larger the place on GRAND MARSHAL given the odds on offer. Note, no third dividend, so nothing crazy.
SUGGEST: GRAND MARSHAL (SMALL WIN / LARGER PLACE) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 2, 4 / F), (1 / F / 2, 4 / F), (F / 1 / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Now for the Group 2 Pago Pago for the two year old colts and geldings over 1200m. The three top weights are attracting most interest and rightly so, however each of which representing little/no value in my opinion, hence happy to explore elsewhere. Did want to back AVIATOR here, was the standalone bet as of Friday night, but come Saturday morning, Gerald Ryan has elected to scratch. As a result, now prefer to have smaller plays on a couple at juicy prices in the hope of a nice juicy collect whether it be through each way or multiples (first fours). The two in question are ATTENTION @ $17+ (SPORTSBET) and THE REVEREND DEMON @ $23+ (UBET). ATTENTION trialled nicely to say he is ready first up, while THE REVEREND DEMON was very good on pace in a race they went hard in and liked the way he stuck on late. Main dangers SOUCHEZ, LIONHEARTED, MOUNT PANORAMA and first starter POTENT FORCE @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) who has trialled well.
SUGGEST: ATTENTION (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $17+, THE REVEREND DEMON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 13 / 7, 9 / F / 7, 9), (1, 2, 3, 13 / F / 7, 9 / 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Now for the two year old fillies’ equivalent with respect given to Bede Murray for this Group 2 event over 1200m. There looks to be good pace here so most should get their chance. Was keen to back PALOMINO next start after liking what I saw last time, so disappointed to see her scratched here at odds. A lot of guesswork here, so again looking at a small play only, somewhat speculatively here on debutant LARAPINETA @ $14+ (UBET, SPORTSBET) after showing enough in recent trial to say if nothing else, has been well educated and doesn’t look to do a lot wrong. Race day a big difference, but time will tell, however in good stable. Main dangers OMEI SWORD, CALLIOPE, PROMPT RESPONSE, TWIST TOPS and FARAWAY TOWN in another wide open race.
SUGGEST: LARAPINETA (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 / F / 16), (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 / F / 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 / 16) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Benchmark 85 over 1900m. I might sound like a broken record, but another hard race, as illustrated by the market with $6 the field here. Pace/tactics key as there doesn’t look to be any pace on paper here, with minimal/no pressure expected up front with SELF ESTEEM and OFF THE RAILS the two who should benefit most from this lack of tempo. Slight lean to SELF ESTEEM at the better odds with $8.50+ on offer with BET365 and the featherweight of 51.5kg after the 1.5kg claim by Winona Costin.Main dangers OFF THE RAILS (slow tempo, on pace) and WORD OF MOUTH who was good behind Pemberley last time and has been well backed.
SUGGEST: SELF ESTEEM (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / F / F / 10), (F / 2, 3 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Now for a group 3 over 1100m, with very good support early for the two faves here in ALBERTO MAGIC @ $2.50+ and ANGEL’S BEACH @ $4.60+. Concede both hard to beat, as well as CRAFTINESS who is on the nose after they elected to put bar plates on. In saying that, looking for better value in another tricky affair here and have landed on three here at big odds in DECISION TIME @ $21+ (SPORTSBET), one of our faves in THE MONSTAR @ $23+ with BET365 and EMINENT DUKE @ $31+ (BET365) after a very good mid-week win in good time/decent company after sitting three wide without cover most of the trip. Each more than capable at this level and both over the odds in my humble opinion. Reminder that backing three at 20/1+, effectively equates to $7+ the win (given equal stakes), which is more than a $4, $5 or $6 winner. Might sound strange, but some can question when we back more than one in a race, so need to clarify every now and then. J Main dangers the three mentioned and BACHMAN especially if the money comes, may find this too short first up, but a must include on class alone for multiples.
SUGGEST: DECISION TIME (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, THE MONSTAR (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $23+, EMINENT DUKE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 5 / 1, 7, 9 / F / 1, 7, 9), (2, 3, 4, 5 / F / 1, 7, 9 / 1, 7, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Now for the Group 2 Phar Lap Stakes for the three year olds over 1500m. Tempo looks moderate at best, hence pace/tactics once again key as some will find themselves too far back on the turn to be any chance of winning. Top pick SACRED EYE up from Melbourne at $4.80+ with LUXBET. Ahead of best value runner who I want to play on also in TORGERSON @ $10+ with LUXBET also. SACRED EYE went out too hard last time in leading, expect to get the gun run here just behind the leaders and be strong late. TORGERSON has been racing in the top class of three year olds, will appreciate the apparent drop in quality (arguable as this is a Group 2 but no Press Statement’s here) and will appreciate the extra 100m. Main dangers OLD NORTH and HATTORI HANZO.
SUGGEST: SACRED EYE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, TORGERSON (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6 / 3, 7 / F / 3, 7), (5, 6 / 3, 7 / 3, 7 / F), (5, 6 / F / 3, 7 / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Now for the feature (in Sydney), the Group 1 Coolmore Classic for the fillies and mares over the 1500m, and what a super field of quality fillies and mares. Cracking race! Pace/tactics key with a moderate tempo on paper and a couple of key players (notably GHISONI, SOLICIT) on pace. Concede there might be a class gap behind the two mentioned, as well as AZKADELLIA, however once again on a day like this, prefer to play several at juicy odds, instead of putting all my eggs in one basket. In turn, wanted to play around three with featherweights led by TELEPATHIC @ $13+ (BET365), ZANBAGH @ $16+ (SPORTSBET) and SLIGHTLY SWEET @ $20+ (LUXBET). The latter big weight swings on SOLICIT in particular, hence convinced as long as they don’t give it to the front runners on a platter, these two should be beating SOLICIT home. 4 and 4.5kg swings in the weights for 1L and 2.5L defeats and SLIGHTLY SWEET finishes closer with luck in running. **TELEPATHIC** has been thereabouts in good races in recent times and with a touch of luck (may be bottled up on the turn from barrier 3 back in the field) should be in the finish. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Most wary of AZKADELLIA (who deserves one out savers/multies/one out quaddie leg) ahead of GHISONI and then POLITENESS. Happy to risk SOLICIT given the weight swings mentioned above.
SUGGEST: **TELEPATHIC** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, ZANBAGH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $16+, SLIGHTLY SWEET (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $20+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7, 12 / 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 / F / 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Group 2 Ajax over 1500m and a tricky speed map to nail with several capable of going forward or back in their racing. On face value, there doesn’t look to be a lot of pace on paper, however will be interesting to see how track is playing prior with any apparent bias potentially making the decision of for jockeys undecided at the moment as to whether to ride positively or not. First thing’s first, our new favourite horse (after lining the pockets of Dungeon followers through the spring) CASINO DANCER is back and surprise, surprise unwanted in betting with $41+ on offer with most operators. No public trials, so uncertainty as to whether she is wound up for this, but regardless the price is massive overs, given what she did last prep. Must play on an each way basis and given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Don’t normally start with the longshot, but just get excited when CASINO DANCER is running. J Top pick, another one of our faves in ROCK STURDY @ $6+ after being terribly stiff last time when we were on at a price, flying home from the rear against the bias, and following interference on two separate occasions prior. Just missed for us then, wasn’t far away for us in the Group 1 Emirates at massive odds when only Turn Me Loose and Politeness beat him home, hence great opportunity to actually head back into the winner’s stall here…and deservedly so. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **ROCK STURDY** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, *CASINO DANCER* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 13), (F / F / 6 / 13) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish the day with a benchmark 85 over 1350m, and this race has changed complexion bigtime overnight with the scratching of NANCY who would have been hard to beat at around the $4+ mark. With NANCY out, and a lack of speed up front, pace/tactics once again become very important. May sound like a broken record, but many races on this card, fit into the same boat, hence confidence levels not as high as usual as luck in running and the right runs are key to many races and many chances within. Want to play around three here who I’m finding hard to split. Want to back HOLLYWOOD BOUND @ $11+ (WILLIAM HILL) and OPEN BOOK @ $12+ (WILLIAM HILL) on a WIN only basis and then want to back *NITE ROCKER* each way at the very juicy price of $41+ with BET365. Given those odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. There is some chance of a storm in the afternoon (although only 10% chance of rain), hence on the off chance it comes, increase confidence in HOLLYWOOD BOUND and reduce confidence in OUR BOOK. Main dangers DRAGON FLYER at a juicy price also, as well as the Waller duo of LADY LE FAY and EL DOUTE, while I want COLLABORATION in the minor placings of multiples…can see this 5YO gelding flying home late to snag 3rd or 4th position. Tough finish.
SUGGEST: HOLLYWOOD BOUND (WIN) @ $11+, OPEN BOOK (WIN) @ $12+, *NITE ROCKET* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 9, 12 / 4, 8 / F / 3, 4, 7, 8), (F / 2, 9, 12 / 3, 4, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $18.52+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ROCK STURDY @ $6+, TELEPATHIC @ $13+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: CASINO DANCER @ $41+, NITE ROCKER @ $41+