ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MARCH 19, 2016
Racing at BENDIGO with the penetrometer reading 5.56, hence currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to BENDIGO for their time in the sun as the metropolitan Melbourne Saturday meeting. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, however after a decent downpour Friday, every chance the rail could become a no go zone, especially as the day progresses. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over 1400m and a tricky start to the day with not much between many of these here. Best value most definitely TEMPS VOLEUR @ $18+ (LUXBET) on an each way basis. Well beaten by key rival here in ROCK FORTHE LADIES first up, but gets the important 3kg claim from Stockdale that gives him a fighting chance of over-turning 3.3L defeat. Happy to have an each way play and leave the first fours, as not anticipating any juicy dividends in this small field.
SUGGEST: TEMPS VOLEUR (EACH WAY) @ $18+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1300m, with pace/tactics set to be key with minimal pace on paper. On the assumption that Michael Dee elects to go forward on AZEEMA @ $2.80+ (BET365, SPORTSBET) from the wide gate, then expecting class to prevail and to be very hard to beat, on the back of a very good trial. Similar to Badawiya who got the chocolates for us last week first up for Mick Price, expecting the same here. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Then, want an each way play on value runner STYLISH MISS @ $23+ (BET365) here for Darren Weir and Brad Rawiller, who you’d expect to go forward from barrier 1, however with a query on the rail, will need to ensure she gets off the fence on the turn to be in what I’d expect to be the batter ground. In saying that it is only race 2, hence Rawiller will simply need to ensure he’s had a good walk of the track prior and identify the superior ground, before ensuring he finds it. Interestingly, only $13+ on offer for several operators, however $21+ on offer with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and BETSTAR, then top odds BET365 at $23+. Fair discrepancy. Main danger FAST CASH, KING’S COMMAND and THINKING OF YOU for multiples.
SUGGEST: AZEEMA (WIN) @ $2.80+, STYLISH MISS (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 8 / 11 / F / 5), (1, 3, 8 / 11 / 5 / F), (F / 11 / 1, 3, 8 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 3: Benchmark 70 for the three year olds over 1000m. Pace/tactics key with decent speed on paper predominately driven by RAGAZZO DEL CORSO crossing from a wide gate, and BILLABONG BABE and THE BIG DANCE taking advantage of gates 1 and 2 respectively. This should result in our top pick MAGNA ROSSA @ $4.60+ (UNIBET) getting a nice run off the fence, with cover midfield and be ready to strike as they straighten for home. Main dangers MYSTIC MOON (looking to notch up three wins in a row) and RAGAZZO DEL CORSO who will look to try and camp behind the leaders. The start here is down the chute, hence only the 1 corner to deal with for runners, hence barriers not so important and given the rain, sitting three wide might not necessarily be the worse place to be.
SUGGEST: MAGNA ROSSA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (3, 10 / 7 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Now for the VOBIS Gold Rush with a stack of cash up for grabs for the eligible two year olds. Going to be totally honest here, I have a share in one of the debutants in the form of IF NOT NOW WHEN, hence will be hoping she can bring her trial form to the races and be competitive. She’s a very small thing, who has surprised us in the way she has been able to take on several challenges in recent times including two trials wins (one unofficial, one official), hence given her eligibility for this race, thought we’d throw her in the deep end and see how we go. Very hard to line up many of these, such as ours, given you have limited experience for most runners and the trial form is very subjective, given most you beat home have never run before, hence their ability is clearly unknown. What I will say is Michael Dee did have the choice between the two stablemates SNITZELWAY, IF NOT NOW WHEN (before the barrier draw) and decided to ride our filly, however Henry Dwyer adamant there isn’t much between them. Notably IF NOT NOW WHEN was purchased for a modest $15k, compared with SNITZELWAY’s $100k price tag. Personally, don’t think either represent decent enough value from a betting perspective, and have the Hayes duo as the ones to play around here in a very tricky affair. Top pick VALLIANO @ $5+ (BET365) who comes off a tough Blue Diamond run, which is the concern (and reason she hasn’t had much support), however need to trust the stable and they have also elected to put blinkers on here. Stablemate OCTOBER TUTU @ $15+ (BET365) has been gelded and as a result showed marked improvement in Flemington jump out, winning in good time. Main dangers CREATIVITY (Thyme For Roses form now looks brilliant for this), PRINCESS OF QUEENS (must respect first starters for Mick Price, was also accepted for Morphettville) and CALL ME TESS who was okay behind the very classy Weatherly last start.
SUGGEST: VALLIANO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5+, OCTOBER TUTU (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (5, 6, 12 / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3), (5, 6, 12 / F / 1, 3 / 1, 3), (F / 5, 6, 12 / 1, 3 / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Now for a good open handicap over 2400m. Concede the Lloyd Williams’ duo ASSIGN and WEXFORD TOWN will be hard to beat, however can’t go past **DANDY GENT** @ $6+ (BET365) who meets both ASSIGN and BLACK JAG 4kg better for actually beating them last time, when just missed behind the above average Real Love. As a result, clear top pick and given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Ahead of LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY @ $10+ (most operators) who comes out of the Signoff race in Adelaide which saw Tunes go very close in the Adelaide Cup. Main dangers the two Lloyd Williams’ runners and BLACK JAG. Interestingly, Zahra proactively chased the ride on BLACK JAG stating he knows how to get the most out of a horse like him. Pressure on.
SUGGEST: **DANDY GENT** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 7 / 11, 6 / F / 11, 6), (1, 2, 7 / F / 11, 6 / 11, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Now for the mares over 1400m, and as much as any other race today, pace/tactics crucial here with many of those at the top of the market expected to settle back, and only a moderate tempo up front, if that. No notable leaders, hence assuming the track is playing fair, looking to play around a couple who I’m hoping will settle on pace. Firstly, WRITTEN @ $12+ (UBET) who can do both, so hoping the stable identifies this lack of pace on paper and take advantage accordingly. The other is ITERATION @ $26+ (most operators) who has gone forward on some occasions in the past. Hard race, with luck in running expected to play a part with many storming home late from the rear.
SUGGEST: WRITTEN (EACH WAY) @ $12+, ITERATION (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 11), (F / F / 4 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Listed Golden Mile over you guessed it 1600m J. Don’t like this race much at all, with little value on offer and a lot of guesswork with several first and second up and some uncertainty on which have been set for this race, and which are being set for bigger races later. Didn’t mind ZABISCO’s trial saying he could be ready to show something first up @ $15+ (BET365) and if there is any support for BONDEIGER (currently $21+ with BET365, LUXBET), then want to dabble there also. Main dangers GENERAL GROOVE (flying but hasn’t won for a while), BIG MEMORY (very good last time, but ? as to whether set for a strong mile or looking for longer) and GENUINE LAD at odds also.
SUGGEST: ZABISCO (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $15+, BONDEIGER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 7 / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Listed Bendigo Guineas and an intriguing affair with several legitimate winning chances. Have leant with **TIVACI** given the much better than expected $5.50+ on offer with most operators. As much as it pains us to say it, ‘beat’ (extremely debatable) one we rate extremely highly in Palentino two starts back and regardless of the ridiculous decision, was a mammoth run caught extremely wide most of the trip. Looks hard to miss on the each way, hence will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Best value elsewhere is in the form of *PURRPUSSFUL* @ $21+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.aU and BETSTAR. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Scared stiff of LET HER RIP who we have been waiting for since backing first up when a total forgive run. A must have in all multiles/savers/quaddies, and SILENT SEDITION.
SUGGEST: **TIVACI** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *PURRPUSSFUL* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (roving 2, 11, 13 / F), (12, 13 / F / F / 2, 11) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 84 over 1100m and a very tough finish to the card. Slight lean ARMADA @ $7+, ahead of best value runner SOCIETY MAN @ $13+ (LUXBET) who doesn’t know how to run a bad race and *BRADMAN* @ $23+ (LUXBET) who older followers will recall us tipping at 66/1 in the Bendigo Guineas a couple of years back. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Playing around the three.
SUGGEST: ARMADA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7+, SOCIETY MAN (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *BRADMAN* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (F / 9 / F / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $13.41+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DANDY GENT @ $6+, TIVACI @ $5.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PURRPUSSFUL @ $21+, BRADMAN @ $23+