26 March 2016 (Racing at Caulfield - Cashfield)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, MARCH 26, 2015

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.1, so expecting a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to CAULFIELD after a little break, with the rail out +6M. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, however hoping for an even track, with pace/tempo in each race the key.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds over 1100m and don’t see any reason why GRETNA @ $6+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) can’t get the job done again. Was brilliant last time and although up in weight, came from the rear off, despite slower early sectionals, which is always a great sign. Can settle closer this time and be hitting the line when it counts. Good each way value. First four saver with GRETNA running 4th with any with monetary support closer to jump time to win and the FIELD for 2nd and 3rd.

SUGGEST: GRETNA (EACH WAY) @ $6+, RUNNING DOUBLE (GRETNA / LOVING HOME), FIRST FOUR (those supported closer to jump time / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2 (updated at 10:30am AEDT): Benchmark 78 over 2400m and think LOVING HOME @ $4+ (BET365) will be extremely hard to beat here in what could be an early Waller double. Should settle positively from barrier 1 and most importantly be tough late, will be better suited here on top of the ground and at Caulfield. Hard to beat. Think this race will be dominated by those on pace, with only a moderate tempo up front, hence main dangers ADIRONDACK, HIGH CHURCH and DELIBERATE. -> Unfortunately LOVING HOME is scratched after looking terribly hard to beat here. As a result, modified suggestions now have ADIRONDACK as the top pick at $4.60+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and BETSTAR after a brilliant effort in red hot Stony Creek Cup. As long as that tough run hasn’t taken too much out, should be hard to beat here with LOVING HOME now out. Best value is RED FELLA at a juicy $31+ with BET365 who I’m respect ting based on what he’s done in the past in much better races than this. At the odds, happy to take the punt he can improve. Main dangers HIGH CHURCH and DELIBERATE.

SUGGEST: ADIRONDACK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, RED FELLA (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4), (F / 1, 2, 6 / 1, 2, 6 / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 2000m, with many here coming out of the same race over 2040m at Moonee Valley. Of those, the one clearly weighted to win is **MAGNUS SLIPPER** @ $8.50+ with big swing in the weights against several key rivals here, especially after the 3kg claim by Jack Martin. Jack Martin doing well riding at Caulfield and playing the Bombers at Metricon on the same afternoon. J The query is obviously running a strong 2000m, however given the $8.50+ each way price tag with most operators, happy to take the punt she can with the reduced weight on her back here. Did lump 60kg last time, down to 56.5kg and they have taken off the ear muffs here. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger TESTABILITY from a completely different form line.

SUGGEST: **MAGNUS SLIPPER** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (10 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for an open handicap for the three year old fillies over 1100m and going with who I consider to be the class runners here, assuming right level of fitness first up. Top pick the ultra-impressive PETITS FILOUS @ $1.90+ (UBET, SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL, TAB SPORTSBET) on a WIN only basis, ahead of SERENADE @ $13+ (UBET, BET365, TAB SPORTSBET) who we have always rated after backing her at 150/1 in the Golden Slipper where she just missed a place. Liked what I saw in high class Werribee jump-out where she finished alongside the ultra-talented Malaguerra. Also note blinkers off first time. Main danger JALAN JALAN who has obviously had issues, returning from 224 days off, however if fit and ready to go, is weighted to beat the favourite here, 2.5kg swing for 1.3L defeat, however is she 100% over an issues experienced. If the money comes, then be wary.    

SUGGEST: PETITS FILOU (WIN) @ $1.90+, SERENADE (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 1 / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 5: Another open handicap, this time for the mares over 1100m, made even more difficult with half the field first up from spells. Pace and tactics here, as well as how the track is playing is key, with very little pace on paper here with several runners’ usual pattern is to either get back, or best form over longer distances. As a result, keen for a play on PRETTY POSSUM who I’m hoping gets out to a soft lead up front and gives them something to catch at a very juicy $26+ with most operators. For the same reason, think TAWTEEN @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) can improve on pace and most importantly should be able to cross easier enough from the wide gate. Also worth noting blinkers first time. Main dangers the three at the top of the weights SABATINI, TYCOON TARA and MISS PROMISCUITY.

SUGGEST: PRETTY POSSUM (EACH WAY) @ $26+, TAWTEEN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / F / 4, 8), (1, 2, 3 / 4, 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 84 over 1800m and pace/tactics set to be key again with another race devoid of any notable speed on paper, making this a very tough race. HIMALAYA DREAM should get a comfortable lead, but just can’t trust a galloper who has lost by 29.1L, 13.4L, 13.1L and 10.3L at four of its last 5 starts, however in between (two starts back) beat a handy lot. A must for multiples and quaddies, but can’t suggest standalone, however be particularly wary if the money comes. Instead, happy to play around two at good odds here, firstly *TRADE COMMISSIONER* @ $26+ (SPORTSBET) who can be ridden positively from the sticky gate (10) and with blinkers on first time. Has slowly but surely been finding form since joining the Ciaron Maher stable, just think the penny might have finally dropped. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. The other is CRIMSON CAPE @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) who I’m hoping is ridden more positively over this more suitable longer distance, after getting back over unsuitable shorter distances at past two. Main dangers HIMALAYA DREAM as mentioned, as well as the Waller duo of HOLLYWOOD BOUND and ABBASSO who I was keen to suggest, but just find them (as well as several others) getting too far back, given the slower than average tempo expected, as well as GINGERBOY and UNGRATEFUL ELLEN. Very deep and tricky race.

SUGGEST: *TRADE COMMISSIONER* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, CRIMSON CAPE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 5, 6, 9, 10 / F / 7, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

QUADDIES (ADDED AT 3:09PM AEDT):

1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 / 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 (SMALLER %)

1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 1 / 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 (LARGER %)

 

Race 7: Now for the first of the features, the Group 3 Victoria handicap over 1400m and a cracking race on paper, with many chances and several different form lines to sort through. Disappointed we didn’t play last time on one we think is underrated and as a result, despite a tricky gate, want to be on RED BOMBER here @ $10+ with most operators. Needs a touch of luck from there, b ut as long as he can get cover, then think his toughness can see him still hitting the line strong and one things for sure, this boy knows how to win, when in a battle at the death. Form guide won’t show it, but meets CHARMED HARMONY much better at the weights for their battle last May, 2015 even though he actually won by 1.5L. Also want to have a somewhat speculative play on GUEST OF HONOUR @ $17+ (UBET, BET365) after nice work in a recent jump out, has won first up and last time after a break was a 4.4L 10th, however was behind the very talented Disposition and Akavoroun. Main dangers BLACK HEART BART, ZEBRINZ and WHISTLE BABY, but doesn’t end there with the majority of runners with legitimate claims. Hot, deep race.

SUGGEST: RED BOMBER (EACH WAY) @ $10+, GUEST OF HONOUR (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 13, 16 / F / F / 4, 8), (F / 1, 13, 16 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Now for the second feature on the car, this time the Group 3 Easter Cup to be run over 2000m and another intriguing affair. Pace/tactics key again, however on this occasion there actually does seem to be decent tempo up front, hence looking at a couple that will be coming from off the pace, assuming backmarkers are getting their chance. Top pick and primary play **EXTRA ZERO** @ $9+ (BET365) who was enormous in the Australia Cup on the back of a very slow tempo where backmarkers were given no chance, however finished as well as any. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, a secondary play on *TRANSFER ALLOWANCE* @ $126+ (BET365) with most operators allowing you to almost write your own ticket. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger the obvious in AWESOME ROCK who was unlucky to not have a Group 1 Australia Cup to his name, however given dungeon followers were on Preferment, no complaints, and do think it was the right decision, as well as GUARDINI and PUCCINI, who may sound more like the striking pair for the Italian national soccer team, but both have serious claims here.

SUGGEST: **EXTRA ZERO** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, *TRANSFER ALLOWANCE* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5, 6 / F / F / 4, 12), (1, 5, 6 / 4 / F / 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with an open event for the three year olds over 2000m. Big field, with lucky in running set to play a role in the fortunes of some drawn either in or out here. Want to play HARDERN, but just can’t make a strong enough case from the car park (barrier 19). Then, you have at the opposite side of the spectrum/barriers CHABAUD (barrier 1) who looks set to be bottled on the fence, needing luck as they turn for home. Hoping for strong pace up front and if that occurs (looks to be enough and hopefully 1 or 2 are caught wide and elect to be driven forward) think PAY UP BRO can storm home late @ $10+ with SPORTSBET. Nice each way price, but will need the pace to suit and also assuming backmarkers are getting their chance, pace dependant. We’ll know by the final race. Main dangers the two mentioned, as well as SKULDUGGERY and COOL CHAP, the latter most definitely the one to catch/beat if the tempo is moderate or slower and/or if on pacers are benefitted on the day.  

SUGGEST: PAY UP BRO (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 7, 8 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

QUADDIES (ADDED AT 3:09PM AEDT):

1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 / 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 (SMALLER %)

1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 / 1 / 4, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 (LARGER %)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $20.96+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MAGNUS SLIPPER @ $8.50+, EXTRA ZERO @ $9+,

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TRADE COMMISSIONER @ $26+, TRANSFER ALLOWANCE @ $126+

BEST MULTI: GRETNA (EACH WAY) / LOVING HOME (WIN) / PETITS FILOU (WIN) @ $45.60+

#happypunting