26 March 2016 (BMW day racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY MARCH 26, 2016

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer currently reading 4.7, currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +5M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS with the rail out +5M, after it was out +2M last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 85 over 1400m and a tricky one at that. Slight lean FEDERAL @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET) who trialled nicely beating home (arguably under less riding) the talented Ryker who we rate highly. Also want to play again on RELIGIFY @ $14+ (SPORTSBET) assuming as GOOD (4) at worst, who has his confidence back and should be able to lead and dictate once again here and be hard to catch. Main dangers DRAGON FLYER was very unlucky last time and looks ready to return to the winner’s stalls, and ROCKOLICIOUS who might just need the run before being at his peak.

SUGGEST: FEDERAL (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, RELIGIFY (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / 1, 2 / F / 1, 2), (6, 8 / F / 1, 2 / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a Group 3 for the two year olds over 1400m and another tricky affair with a big field of lightly raced two year olds assembled. Slight lean ROCK AND SWING @ $8.50+ (BET365) who won well on debut, loved the way he took the narrow gap which is an excellent sign for a 2YO colt on debut. Also a good sign to see gun hoop Hugh Bowman has elected to ride ahead of stablemate PRIZED ICON who he has ridden at past 3 starts and I similar odds and in decent form. The other I want to play on is **ACHI BABA** @ $12+ (SPORTSBET) who was caught in traffic on debut at Sandown behind two very promising types and although he was 5 lengths in arears, didn’t have a clear run until late before hitting the line very well. Also, loved his recent trial when given a soft time, with others pushed along and not beaten far despite 5th and would have been ahead of them all 50m past the post. Always a good sign and given the better than expected odd will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Happy to play around the two given the odds available for both.

SUGGEST: ROCK AND SWING (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, **ACHI BABA** (EACH WAY) @ 12+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11), (F / F / 4, 11 / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Now for the Group 3 Neville Sellwood Stakes over 2000m and our best for the day in Sydney was to be CENTRE PIVOT who is unfortunately scratched this morning. Disappointing and adds to a growing list of runners we’ve been super keen on, however have unfortunately not made it to the starting gates in recent times. Beyond our control, so we move on and explore alternatives. For what it is worth, the reasoning was that he was much better suited under these weight conditions after carrying no less than 58.5kg since his last win, five starts back at Doomben. This includes carrying 59kg when beaten 5L to a handy mare by the name of WINX two starts back. Drawn better here and with gun hoop Shinn aboard, looks an each way special @ $8+. As a result, will upgrade SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD @ $6+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Main danger the obvious in IT’S SOMEWHAT, ahead of ENTIRELY PLATINUM and MAGIC HURRICANE. Happy to risk MESSENE who is well in the market, as I have concerns running a strong 2000m.

SUGGEST: SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5 / F / F / 6), (2 / 1, 5, 6 / F / 1, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes over 1200m. Very good race, with plenty of class, form and legitimate winning chances, however can’t go past **BACHMAN** here at the tidy each way price of $7+ with most operators. Was very unlucky last time, not drawn great again, but will get back and as long as backmarkers are getting their chance and there is enough tempo up front (which looks the case) should be rattling home late to hopefully pick them all up in time. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MALAGUERRA who is low flying and has been for a while, ahead of TARGET IN SIGHT fresh, ALBERO MAGIC and ANGEL’S BEACH.

SUGGEST: **BACHMAN** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 5 / F / F / 6), (2 / 1, 3, 5, 6 / F / 1, 3, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Now for the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes for the three year old colts and geldings over 2000m and this has now become tricky following the scratching of RIVER WILD who we were very keen on also. Not quite to the same level as Centre Pivot, but thought he was going to be very hard to beat here. The 2000m is new/unknown to some here, while others jump up from 1500m last start, hence fitness levels become key, keeping in mind the Derby and similar events will be the primary goal for some of these. For what it’s worth the reasoning for RIVER WILD was he had been racing in the best 3YO races in recent times, hence will appreciate an apparent drop in grade here (No Tarzinos or Palentinos here), despite the Group 2 status. So, a rethink of the race, has us now landing on three at juicy odds, all coming out of different formlines to the obvious where many of the favourites here last met over 1500m. First, is BALMAIN BOY @ $15+ (BET365) who has been racing in the best Sydney three year olds races alongside Press Statement and Montaigne and should appreciate the 2000m. Ahead of MULTIFACETS @ $21+ (UBET, SPORTSBET, BET36%) who was good two back behind Sweet Esteem when on the wrong part of the track (inside), then went to Warwick Farm and won in good style, liked his toughness late. Finally, can’t believe the odds on offer for *MANHATTAN SON* @ $201+ with SPORTSBET. Was very good in that same Self Esteem race two back, before being in the quicksand which was the inside at Warwick Farm last time. Crazy overs and a BEST LONGSHOT of the day for sure. Main dangers HATTORI HANZO, MAN OF CHOICE, SOVEREIGN NATION and TORGERSON who is better than recent form suggests, but needs to lift.

SUGGEST: BALMAIN BOY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, MULTIFACETS (EACH WAY) @ $21+, *MANHATTAN SON* (EACH WAY) @ $201+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 6 / 8, 9, 12 / F / 8, 9, 12), (1, 3, 4, 6 / F / 8, 9, 12 / 8, 9, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: Now for the first of the features, the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for the three year old fillies over 2000m and with JAMEKA gone, RISQUE becomes very hard to beat here at $3.40+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and UNIBET. Suggest a WIN only play unless you can snag at least $1.70 place. Main dangers the kiwi raiders in CAPELLA, VALLEY GIRL, ahead of STAY WITH ME and HONESTA who can all figure over this longer trip at double figure odds.

SUGGEST: RISQUE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 8 / 5 / F / F), (roving 2, 4, 5 / F), (roving 3, 5, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 65%)

QUADDIES (ADDED AT 3:45PM AEDT):

5 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2 / 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16 (LARGER %)

2, 3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2 / 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16 (SMALLER %)

 

Race 7: And now for the second feature and the main one of the day, the Group 1 BMW over 2400m. It’s a race that one Chris Waller is desperate to win, as it has evaded his dominance, especially in Sydney and he saddles up 4 of the 10 runners here. In saying that, have queries on the favourite and Waller’s shortest runner, who happens to be one who brought us a lot of happiness last start in the form of PREFERMENT who won the Australia Cup in dramatic and profitable circumstances. Was super keen at Flemington/2000m which is definitely his pet track/distance and despite him being a Victoria Derby winner, have a query on running a strong 2400m in a Group 1 event like this. A must for multiples/quaddies, etc but simply can’t jump into the $3.40+ price standalone. Instead, like his stablemates led by WHO SHOT THEBARMAN @ $8.50+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU, BET365, BETSTAR), who gets to his right trip here. Interestingly, last time he ran over 2400m he was devastating, beating the more than handy Tall Ship by a lazy 7L on the back ofbrilliant ride by James McDonald in the  Sandown Cup. Then, giving *STORM THE STARS* another chance @ $34+ (BET365), on the back of the blinkers coming off and the intention to be ridden forward and hopefully dictate up front, which is his usual pattern back home. Adamant this galloper has ability we are yet to see in Australia, however given the big price, and the change of tactics, and tactics more accustomed to, happy to give another chance. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main danger most definitely OUR IVANHOWE (if 100% fit would have been top pick, but can’t get keen given fitness concerns in a big Group 1 like this), PREFERMENT and MONGOLIAN KHAN who got going late last time. Want to have something on a Waller first four also, just in case, all are more than capable.

SUGGEST: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *STORM THE STARS* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 7 / F / F / 2, 8), (boxed 2, 4, 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: And now for the Group 2 Emancipation and as much as I’d always rather better odds, can’t go past SOLICIT here @ $2.50+ (hoping we’ll get better closer to jump time), with speed and weight scale all in her favour, not to mention, she’s in red hot form. Extremely hard to beat. Main danger BADAWIYA who I rate very highly and got us the chocolates last time, but just think SOLICIT will pinch a race winning lead on the turn and with only 1 kg difference between the two (5YO mare v 3YO filly), expect SOLICIT to be too strong late. Next best the Waller trio of AMICUS, TELEPATHIC and LADY LE FAY all legitimate winning chances, if there’s a chink in SOLICIT’s armour.

SUGGEST: SOLICIT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $2.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 9, 10 / 2 / F / F), (1, 4, 9, 10 / 1, 4, 9, 10 / 2 / F), (boxed 1, 2, 4, 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 65%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude to be run over 1500m. Big field but only think there’s a handful of legitimate winning chances. Disappointed by another scratching, this time in the form of EXCESS KNOWLEDGE. Not, because I wanted to play, but because she was very short and we were getting great value elsewhere. Was keen on BEATEN UP after seeing mid-teens yesterday, where I was keen to play, but has been smashed and unfortunately is no longer representing the sort of value I was after, into $6+. The reasoning was BEATEN UP is normally running in the best tier of races, hence first up record may not look great, but it’s better than it looks on face value and does include 2 wins from 8. Going well and can surprise over the shorter 1500m distance here. $6+ is no longer a surprise, however is a must for multies/savers/multiples and even a one out skinny quaddie. As a result, leaning towards ROCK STURDY @ $8+ (LABROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BET365, BETSTAR) whose run last time was too bad to be true and stable have confirmed there were legitimate excuses. Just needs to replicate first up run to be hard to beat here. The other I want to play around is HAVANA COOLER @ $11+ (BET365) who worked home well in latest trial after being given a soft run at rear prior and ended up close to the one we’ve just spoken about in BEATEN UP. Represents good each way value and has gun hoop McDonald aboard. Main dangers the obvious in BEATEN UP, AMOVATIO (needs luck from the gate) and DANCES ON STARS.

SUGGEST: ROCK STURDY (EACH WAY) @ $8+, HAVANA COOLER (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 3, 5, 9, 11 / 3, 5, 9, 11 / F), (2, 5, 11 / 3, 9 / F / 3, 9), (2, 5, 11 / F / 3, 9 / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

QUADDIES (ADDED AT 3:45PM AEDT):

5 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2 / 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16 (LARGER %)

2, 3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9 / 2 / 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16 (SMALLER %)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $23.83+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ACHI BABA @ $12+, BACHMAN @ $7+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MANHATTAN SON @ $201+, STORM THE STARS @ $34+

BEST MULTI: BACHMAN (EACH WAY) / RISQUE (WIN) / SOLICIT (WIN) @ $59.50+

#happypunting