ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MARCH 5, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 4.96, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail back in the TRUE position, after it was out +6M last week. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but as always be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We kick start the day with the Group 2 Reisling Stakes for the two year old fillies over 1200m. Nothing major standing out from a value perspective and actually think the bookies have pretty much nailed the market. Finding it hard to slipt the two clear faves in HONESTY PREVAILS and CALLIOPE, and as a result suggest a play on the two to quinella this one. If keen on either, especially HONESTY PREVAILS suggest taking a multi instead of a massive standalone investment.
SUGGEST: QUINELLA (HONESTY PREVAILS, CALLIOPE), FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 3 / 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Now for the two year old colts and geldings in the form of the Group 2 Todman also over 1200m and make no bones about it, there’s a standout here in the form of CAPITALIST @ $1.35+. Disappointed by the scratching of ASTERN (arguably the main danger) and now DEFCON which significantly cuts the price we will be getting on the day. Should be winning this and also re-instate position as the Golden Slipper favourite. Also suggest a play for the Slipper with as big as $4.60+ on offer on the back of Extreme Choice’s dominant win in the Blue Diamond. Main and only danger here is WEATHERLY.
SUGGEST: CAPITALIST (WIN) @ $1.35+, EXACTA (WEATHERLY / CAPITALIST) (CONFIDENCE 95%)
SUGGEST (LONG TERM): CAPITALIST (GOLDEN SLIPPER) @ $4.60+
Race 3: Listed Randwick City over 2000m and this has taken a long time to decipher, with pace, tactics and luck in running key. Tried hard to land MAURUS on top who I think is ready to fire second up with a nice drop in the weights, however just not sure where he lands from barrier 9 of 10 and expected to race closer to the pace. If he can get cover, then will be very hard to catch, however speed map has him at risk of being posted wide without cover. As a result, had to lean towards the two at the top of the markets in ALLERGIC and LIBRAN, both of which had unclear runs last time and LIBRAN with a small 0.5kg swing in the weights. Ended up with a slight lean to LIBRAN @ $4+ (SPORTSBET) who we suggested backing at 100/1+ for the Sydney Cup, but from barrier 1 can be winning this over the 2000m. Scared stiff of ALLERGIC and MAURUS. Only the three needed for early quaddie.
SUGGEST: LIBRAN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8, 9 / 6, 8, 9 / F / F), (6, 8 / 9 / 6, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Group 3 Aspiration Handicap for the fillies and mares over the famous Randwick mile. Intriguing race, with many different form lines to try and line up. Been a fan of HEAVENS ABOVE for a little while now with good success including her being a Best Value winner for dungeon followers last start, however do believe rock bottom odds are being offered here at $3.70+. Will be flying late, but will get back and there doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper here. Instead, think better value is on offer for the Waller duo of **SWEET FIRE** @ $10+ (BET365) (last start we mentioned holding fire until back in mares grade over the mile….and here she is) and ALL CERISE @ $9.50+ (BET365) who we’ve had plenty of success with in recent times. When compared with HEAVENS ABOVE, we’re effectively saying, we’d rather back these 2 at $4.50 ($9 / 2) instead of HEAVENS ABOVE only at $3.70+. Time will tell if we’ve pulled the right reign. Given the odds will make SWEET FIRE a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Additional dangers in a deeper field than it reads at first glance also include ADORABEEL and SKYLINE BLUSH.
SUGGEST: **SWEET FIRE** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $10+, ALL CERISE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4), (2, 5, 8 / F / 1, 4 / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Group 1 Canterbury Stakes over 1300m, with a small but select field assembled, in another very intriguing affair. Tough, many legitimate chances, several of which up there as my favourite gallopers with plenty of success on the back of several of them. We’re one of FIRST SEAL’s biggest fans, super keen first up when she brained them, however am a little gun shy second up with them electing to remain at the 1300m. I’ll most likely be keen next time over a longer distance, but although class could shine through here, given the high quality opposition can’t jump into the skinny $2.80+ price tag. Instead, believe the better value lies in the form of KERMEDEC @ $6+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Very interesting to see blinkers on first time and expecting a bold showing here. Also, want something smaller on HAPPY CLAPPER who’s also been good to Dungeon followers and represents good value each way at $17+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Main dangers OUR BOY MALACHI and FIRST SEAL. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: KERMEDEC (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $6+, HAPPY CLAPPER (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / F / 2, 5 / 2, 5), (3, 6 / 2, 5 / F / 2, 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Listed Fireball Stakes over 1100m and there looks to be strong pace on paper, with several leaders/on pacers drawn wide. Hard race, luck in running expected to play a part, hence looking for value and think the best lies in the form of LADY SNIPER @ $11+, who saluted for Dungeon followers last time at a very juicy price, fingers crossed we can repeat the dose here. And SERENE MAJESTY @ $16+ (LUXBET). Throw a blanket over the rest.
SUGGEST: LADY SNIPER (EACH WAY) @ $11+, SERENE MAJESTY (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 11 / F / 3, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Randwick Guineas and no surprise with PRESS STATEMENT all the rage @ $1.50+ with PALMERBET. Tricky draw, however has gun hoop Hugh Bowman aboard, and actually think he might be ridden a little more positively in order to slot into a spot potentially just behind the leaders. Should be winning this, with the rest of the field playing for second. Also want to have an each way play (small win, larger place) on DAL CIELO @ $26+ with most operators. There is a chance he gets away with a relatively soft lead and if so will definitely give them something to catch. While BEST LONGSHOT is one we rate moving forward in BALMAIN BOY @ $81+ with SPORTSBET. Will be better suited over longer later (Rosehill Guineas looks the aim), if they happen to go at a decent clip, has the toughness at the end to be in the finish at a silly price. Once again a small win, larger place investment. Main dangers STAY WITH ME, TULSA, MONTAIGNE and SHARDS.
SUGGEST: PRESS STATEMENT (WIN) @ $1.50+, DAL CIELO (SMALL WIN / MORE PLACE) @ $26+, *BALMAIN BOY* (SMALL WIN / MORE PLACE) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3 / F / 1, 3, 10), (4, 7, 8, 13 / 1 / F / 3, 10) (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 8: Cracking edition of the Group 2 Hyland Race Colours Challenge over 1000m. Apparently an operator opened ENGLISH at $26 so safe to say some trader wasn’t watching his trials / nor has much of an idea about form analysis, hence he may be looking for a new job Monday. Blind Freddy wouldn’t have missed latest trial when she showed a brilliant turn of foot to reel in hot 2YO CAPITALIST, albeit only under trial conditions. Extremely hard to beat but now rock bottom odds at $3.80+, hence will save for multies and a one out quaddie leg. May simply be too good. In saying that, looking for better value and want to play around two who haven’t drawn brilliantly but as a result we are getting overs. One is KINGLIKE @ $8.50+ (most operators) who looked an each way special in Melbourne and although I’m surprised they have taken this route (much tougher), I can only assume the stable are confident and he’s ready to fire….would want to be against this lot. The other is the rank outsider here in *BOSS LANE* @ $21+ with most operators. Back to 1000m from 1200m a slight concern, but this is one underrated gelding who rarely puts in a below average effort. Just think the price is very generous and as a result a play here. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers led by the obvious in ENGLISH, as well as SHIRAZ, BALL OF MUSCLE and SPEAK FONDLY. Hot race.
SUGGEST: KINGLIKE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *BOSS LANE* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (10 / 8 / F / 4), (1, 3, 9, 10 / 1, 3, 8, 9, 10 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: We finish with a Group 3 for the mares over 1200m and have found a standout BEST VALUE bet of the day in the form of **SOMETHING SECRET** here at $18+ with most operators. Should be half the odds in my humble opinion and expect odds to shorten as the day goes on. Keen on an each way basis. Also want to have something on PRESS REPORT @ $9+ (BET365) who is racing in career best form, ridden much more positively this campaign. Main dangers PRIVATE SECRETARY and ARTISTRY.
SUGGEST: **SOMETHING SECRET** (EACH WAY) @ $18+, PRESS REPORT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7 / 8, 11 / F / 8, 11), (roving 5, 8, 11 / F), (roving 7, 8, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $15.99+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SWEET FIRE @ $10+, SOMETHING SECRET @ $18+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: BALMAIN BOY @ $81+, BOSS LANE @ $21+