1 April 2016 (Friday night racing at Cranbourne)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CRANBOURNE

FRIDAY, APRIL 1, 2016

 

Racing at CRANBOURNE with the penetrometer reading 5.33, hence currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CRANBOURNE for a change on a Friday night, before The Championships commence in Sydney the day after. Rail out +9M, hence with the tight turning track, expecting no disadvantage to be on pace close to the rail. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a maiden over 1200m and as long as he jumps cleanly (has had issues last start and recent trial), think ONE HOT DANE @ $2.60+ (BET365) is hard to beat here with only a moderate pace up front on paper. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis, with savers with the two main dangers in PALOOKA and MAGGIE MANHATTAN. Be surprised if the winner doesn’t come out of those three, however the unknown is FORGIVE ME who hasn’t raced for 320 days and hasn’t been seen at trials, hence could have improved for the good Griffiths’ stable. Will include in first fours just in case, but be wary if looks well in yard and there is money.

SUGGEST: ONE HOT DANE (WIN) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 9 / 6 / 5, 7, 9 / F), (7, 9 / 6, 7, 9 / 6, 7, 9 / 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 2: Next is a maiden for the fillies and mares over 1000m. Tricky with a three first starters, three first up after breaks and three in current preparations. Of those currently running around think GAY SKIER can go close here at a juicy $12+ price tag with UBET. Keen to see her find the rail, whether it be leading or one back, as she seems to lose a touch of ground on the bend which has proved costly and hence would rather her end one or two wide, instead of two wide turning into four wide. Beyond that, will be on track tonight, so prefer to see them in the yard. Will communicate any who catch my eye via Facebook and Twitter, hence keep an eye out closer to jump time.

SUGGEST: GAY SKIER (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (ANY IDENTIFIED IN YARD/SUPPORTED / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

Race 3: Another maiden, this time for the three year old fillies and this looks a more competitive affair. Best value lies with two here in **MOUNT OMEI** @ $6+ (SPORTSBET) and FAIR ISLE @ $6.50+ (LUXBET). Will make the MOUNT OMEI a BEST VALUE of the night at current odds. Happy to play around the two on WIN only basis’ given the odds and multiples with main danger ST SWITHUNS ahead of QUILATE.

SUGGEST: **MOUNT OMEI** (WIN) @ $6+, FAIR ISLE (WIN) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (8, 11 / 3, 6 / F / F), (roving 3, 6, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for the Inglis Vobis Gold Plate and as many of you would be aware, personally have a connection with this race with favourite IF NOT NOW WHEN. We had always identified this race as target for her, hence was going to be the starting point, but was simply going too well to bypass the riches on offer at Bendigo where we took a throw at the stumps and thankfully knocked the stump out of the ground. We had anticipated this being an easier race, however with decent money on offer once again, no surprise that it’s no walk in the park. Our girl should be hard to beat, and was $3.20+ with BET365 last night and early this morning, but that has been snapped up and as a result into a skinny $2.25+ (SPORTSBET). May have suggested at the $3.20+, but not at the $2.25+. She is well and seems ready to hopefully replicate her debut run, but there is actually a bit to the race, with *DELTA D’OR* expected to cross from the wide gate and lead, while we should position not far away hopefully in the 1-1 as I am wary of us potentially getting boxed in on the rail, if we sit right behind the leader; will leave that with Michael Dee to circumvent. Main danger is most definitely JAMMO JACK who was very good on debut after missing start in a very good form race behind Dalradian, Moshki and The Seductress who have all won in town in their short careers. Jumped much better in recent jumpout and as much as I’m hoping they go back and ride for luck, I’m assuming he won’t be far away either. Another reason why I would like INNW to sit 1-1, meaning JAMMO JACK sits three wide, or forced to settle further back. The other who has run well previously is RATA TAT TAT who ran in the 2YO Inglis race at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate day (a day where backmarkers were given no chance given severe leader’s bias) and actually made some ground out wide. Hasn’t been seen since, hence plenty of guesswork required. All in all think best value lies in the form of DELTA D’OR @ $15+ with BET365. Will lead, which you would expect to only be a positive at Cranbourne with rail out +9M and think he’ll kick and give all something to catch. Main dangers IF NOT NOW WHEN (who we obviously want to win) and JAMMO JACK, ahead of RATA TAT TAT. Fingers, toes, everything crossed and not necessarily from a punting perspective on this occasion. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the night.

SUGGEST: *DELTA D’OR* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 9 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Now for a benchmark 64 for the fillies and mares and very disappointed by the scratching of FIFE who looks close to a good thing here and was to be the best of the night. As a result, CONSOMMATEUR is definitely the one to beat, however very skinny odds for a horse that gets back at Cranbourne, hence if keen prefer to play through multies and/or a one out quaddie leg to reduce risk associated with larger investment. Instead, think better value lies with HI SPUN @ $4.20+ (BET365) on a WIN only basis, and even better value with **TRANCING** @ $8.50+ (BET365) on an each way basis. Hoping the latter goes forward from barrier 8 and either leads or sits right behind the expected leader in HI SPUN. With this in mind, and given current price will make a BEST VALUE of the night. Then, hoping they can pinch a winning break ahead of the fast finishing CONSOMMATEUR, while ROKEBY RED is another with some claims.

SUGGEST: **TRANCING** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, HI SPUN (WIN) @ $4.20+,  RUNNING DOUBLE (CONSOMMATEUR / MAROUDAMISS), FIRST FOUR (3 / 5 / F / 2), (roving 2, 3, 5 / F), (boxed 2, 3, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6: Benchmark 64 over 2080m and think this one works nicely from a betting perspective, with the favourite MAROUDAMISS extremely hard to beat @ $2.25+ (BET365), who I suggest on a WIN only basis. While, I like one at odds on an each way basis in the form of *KOKA* @ $19+ with BET365 also. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day.

SUGGEST: MAROUDAMISS (WIN) @ $2.25+, *KOKA* (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (F / 8 / F / 6) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 7: Benchmark 64 over 1000m and was super keen on ABILITY here at a respectable $2.20+ last night, however has been absolutely smashed into $1.65+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET, TAB SPORTSBET) following strong support and scratchings. As always, given the skinny odds try and work through multies and/or one out quaddie leg(s), however should be beating this lot. If out to $1.80+ then good enough to step in and play. If not, try and extract better value through GEMMALENAH who should give them something to catch and expect to run second behind the fave.

SUGGEST: ABILITY (WIN) @ $1.80+ (IF AVAILABLE), EXACTA (ABILITY / GEMMALENAH), FIRST FOUR (2, 7 / F / 2, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%) 

 

Race 8: And we finish with a class 1 over 1400m, in what is arguably one of the most open races of the night, and unfortunately the one we liked is out in the form of VEGAS RULER, who had drawn badly but we were looking to overlook at a decent price. Tricky finish, but slight lean INTRIGO @ $10+ with LUXBET and BET365. Hoping they take a more forward position after being ridden back and wide first up and given no chance. Can bounce back here at a decent price. Main dangers everything with a single figure saddlecloth in what looks a wide end to the quaddie, with some skinny legs leading in.

SUGGEST: INTRIGO (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $8.61+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MOUNT OMEI @ $6+, TRANCING @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DELTA D’OR @ $15+, KOKA @ $19+

#happypunting