16 April 2016 (Final day of carnival racing at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading TBC, currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.

RAIL: +9M (1600m to winning post), +5M (remainder). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK for the third consecutive week, with the rail now finding itself out +9M from 1600m to the winning post, +5M elsewhere. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but given the revised rail position, expecting no major disadvantage to be closer to the fence (unlike last week), especially early in the day, with the track potentially evening out as the day goes on. As always, be sure to keep an eye on how the track is playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with a class 3 over 1200m and a very competitive and even affair on paper. Slight lean towards DASHIE DE LUXE at $17+ (BET365) after running several nice races in first prep and most importantly has the adaptability to race on pace or drift back if there happens to be better places to be. Handles softer going and drawn well, so on the assumption the rail is okay, then no reason she won’t be in the box seat as they straighten for home. Main dangers TIGER BY THE TALE and CIRCLE GAME.

SUGGEST: DASHIE DE LUXE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 13 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 83 over 1200m, with pace/tactics/how track is playing key. Looks to be decent pace on paper here, hence if they all go forward, then could set things up from something off the pace. For this reason, slight lean towards QUEEN OF KARIBA after a 4 week freshen up. Reckon she goes best after a freshen up of this type as illustrated by last two results following similar break being 1.5L 4th to Amicus (PRESS REPORT 2nd in the race, but meets 2kg better for 1.4L margin, not massive), and 3.9L 5th to the talented Flippant. Main reason though, hoping gets the race run to suit and no issue if softer ground. $16+ good each way value with TAB SPORTSBET. The other over the odds is PRESS REPORT @ $17+ (SPORTSBET), hence worthy of a secondary play. Main dangers SANTA ANA LANE, MOHAVE, AMMIRATA and RYKER.

SUGGEST: QUEEN OF KARIBA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $16+, PRESS REPORT (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 6 / F / F / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Now for the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate for the three year olds over 2000m and hard to go past the favourite here in OLD NORTH @ $2.30+ (SPORTSBET) on the back of dominant win last time. Same weight scale here, hence those who finished behind have no weight relief to try and close the gap. You could argue TORGERSEN finished as we’ll, but simply got further back in the run and had both come here from that last battle, then would possibly lean towards TORGERSEN, but he went to the Derby (2400m) and now drops back to the 2000m, whilst OLD NORTH has had the extra break and remains at the 2000m. Hard to beat and suggest on a WIN only basis. Also want something smaller each way on MANHATTAN SON, for the same reasoning above, will be hard to see him turn the tables, but at $51+ (most/all operators) happy to take the smaller punt and given big odds, place dividend is decent enough to entertain a small win / larger place investment. Main dangers TORGERSEN (who apparently has the ultimate reason to run well with his balls on the line….literally…may be returning a gelding next time if he doesn’t improve here), HE’S OUR ROKKII and ASINARA.

SUGGEST: OLD NORTH (WIN) @ $2.30+, MANHATTAN SON (SMALL WIN / MORE PLACE) @ $51+, RUNNING DOUBLE (OLD NORTH / PEARLS), FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 9 / 1 / F / 2, 3, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 4: Now for another Group 3, this time for the three year old fillies in the Carr Stakes over 1400m. And similar to Old North in the previous, think we’re looking at a Godolphin top weight double, with PEARLS set to be hard to beat @ $3.40+ (TAB SPORTSBET). Beat several rivals comfortably last time after seemingly not going great on the turn, but hit the line very well and most importantly meets those rivals at the same weights here. Doesn’t look to be a stack of pace, so McDonald will hopefully keep her close enough based on how the track is playing and tempo once they jump. Main dangers LADY SNIPER, TREMEZZINA (however noter Shinn has elected to ride LADY SNIPER) and TAP THIS.

SUGGEST: PEARLS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (4, 7, 10 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5: Now for secondary feature on the card, in the form of the Group 1 Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes for the two year olds over the mile (1600m). This all revolves around the fitness of red hot fave YANKEE ROSE who has had much publicised issues leading in, which is hardly ideal for a Group 1, but she does look extremely hard to beat, as long as close to the mark. We sometimes need to trust trainers in these situations, however given the skinny quote $1.50+ need to be wary. As a result, going to decrease risk of big standalone investment by increasing potential returns through multies/multiples/one out quaddie leg instead of standalone WIN bet. Instead, happy to have smaller plays on OBSCURA @ $8.50+ (WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET, CROWNBET, TAB SPORTSBET), which could potentially make it a Godolphin treble. At least he comes out of a relatively unknown form reference when she flew home against the pattern of the day, which is always a great sign. Similar thinking with blowout hope *JAWS OF STEEL* @ $51+ (most operators) who won a decent enough race at Mornington and Robbie Laing can make it two blowouts in consecutive weeks after Miss Rock prevailed last week. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger the obvious in YANKEE ROSE for obvious reasons and FARAWAY TOWN who at least had excuses behind YANKEE ROSE last time.

SUGGEST: OBSCURA (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *JAWS OF STEEL* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (9, 10 / 7, 9, 10 / F / 2, 7, 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: Now for the Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes over 1200m, and a very good race. Finding it hard to split two here (TARGET IN SIGHT and MUSIC MAGNATE), however am leaning towards TARGET IN SIGHT @ $6.00+ (TAB SPORTSBET)…just, predominately on the back of the better barrier, 6 v 11. Main danger most definitely MUSIC MAGNATE who has had two excellent trials leading in, however does have a tricky gate to contend with. Save with a one out quaddie leg and/or multi. Main dangers MUSIC MAGNATE, ahead of CHARLIE BOY, FEDERAL and ARTLEE.

SUGGEST: TARGET IN SIGHT (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 10, 11 / 1, 8, 10, 11 / F / 3), (1, 8, 10, 11 / F / 1, 8, 10, 11 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Now for the main event, the Group 1 All Aged Stakes to be run over 1400m and what a cracking race. Only 8 starters at this stage, but it’s most definitely a case of quality over quantity, despite some big names missing. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace on paper, which looks to the detriment of key hope ENGLISH who will be getting back and flying home like usual. The weather is the query with BLACK HEART BART, who I’m not convinced will be comfortable on anything SOFT or worse. Hence, I’m a no on current SOFT (5) rating, however should be upgraded to a GOOD (4) or dare I say it better, then comes into calculations bigtime. However, based on the assumption of a SOFT (5) track (the track last week didn’t seem to recover/improve despite minimal rain in the lead up days to Saturday) then have ended up with the youngster in PRESS STATEMENT @ $3.50+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BETSTAR), just ahead of the red hot MALAGUERRA who has been an absolute revelation in the past 6 months. All those mentioned above key dangers, in addition to KERMEDEC who flopped last time, however wasn’t the only one to simply not like the ‘sticky’ track and is one of the best going around so can’t be left out of anything. Super race.

SUGGEST: PRESS STATEMENT (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, EXACTA (MALAGUERRA / PRESS STATEMENT), FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 7 / 4, 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 8: Now for the Group 3 JRA Plate to be run over 2000m. Good race, with plenty of depth, hence happy to take on those at the top of the market and play across a few at good/big odds here instead of putting all our eggs in one shorter priced favourite. A lot will depend on how the track is racing, especially after 7 additional races are added to the previous two weeks of heavy traffic. Always the chance, of the rail deteriorating as the day goes on, however given past racing, we can’t really predict with great confidence, unfortunately. Have **MAURUS** on top @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, TAB SPORTSBET) if we get a run, currently 4th emergency. Assuming he gets a run, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, definitely want something on *INDEX LINKED* @ $41+ (most operators), is going very well and although will need tempo to suit and track to be giving backmarkers their chance, however given the price need to play. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Next best MORIARTY @ $18+ (BET365, TAB SPORTSBET), ahead of HAWKSPUR @ $14+. If MAURUS runs, then we leave HAWKSPUR out of standalone plays, however if MAURUS misses the cut, then HAWKSPUR becomes a play. Main dangers MESSENE (especially if in pacers are advantaged), GUARDINI, SADLER’S LAKE and HAVANA COOLER who got the chocolates for Dungeon followers last time impressively.

SUGGEST: **MAURUS** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $15+, *INDEX LINKED* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, MORIARTY (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 7, 11 / 5, 8, 17 / F / 5, 7, 8, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9:  And we finish the Sydney carnival with a benchmark 100 over 1400m and keen on the old boy here in **STRAWBERRY BOY** @ $8.50+ (TAB SPORTSBET). Working well, we were keen in Queensland at a price and got beaten by a very good one in Lucky Hussler and there are no Lucky Hussler’s here. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers NANCY, ahead of stablemates RELIGIFY (hopefully doesn’t pour on much pressure up front) and TALES OF GRIMM who is most definitely good enough, if fit enough. Another good race to end the carnival.

SUGGEST: **STRAWBERRY BOY** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, TRIFECTA (boxed 1, 8, 12, 13), FIRST FOUR (8, 12, 13 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $18.44+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: STRAWBERRY BOY @ $8.50+, MAURUS @ $15+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: JAWS OF STEEL @ $51+, INDEX LINKED @ $41+

#happypunting