ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.11, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to CAULFIELD with the rail out +9M, out from +6M a few weeks’ back. Would normally expect this to mean no disadvantage to be closer to the pace and closer to the fence, however given recent racing, hopefully all are getting their chance. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over a massive 4000m. Don’t see why DANE HUSSLER can’t win again at a respectable $4.20+ with SPORTSBET. Main danger most definitely SLY ROMANCE. Happy to limit and play around these two only.
SUGGEST: DANE HUSSLER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Now for the Vale Phil Sly Vobis Gold Ingot over 1200m, where many will now know I have somewhat of a vested interest through ownership of IF NOT NOW WHEN. In saying that, no surprise we won’t be heading this way, especially after drawing 13 (may not have mattered), with Adelaide looking the most likely next weekend. In saying that, sticking with the form out of the Gold Rush race and given weights, have SUMMER GLEN on top here @ $7+ with UBET and LUXBET. Then some value with *ZERO PATIENCE* @ $23+ after not being far behind our girl at Cranbourne. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers those at the top of the weights in URBAN RULER, DISSOLUTE, VALLIANO and IF YOU WILL.
SUGGEST: SUMMER GLEN (EACH WAY) @ $7+, *ZERO PATIENCE* (EACH WAY) @ $23+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 5 / 11 / F / 1, 3, 4, 5, 14), (1, 3, 4, 5 / 11 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Now for the fillies and mares over 1400m in the Vobis Gold Distaff with pace/tactics set to be key, not to mention how the track is playing. Reckon FRENCH EMOTION will get out to backable odds here with $2.40+ on offer with UBET already after opening shorter with most operators. At those odds or better, happy to play on a WIN only basis. Primary play, ahead of secondary each way play on WHISTLE BABY @ $13+ with SPORTSBET. Main danger SCARLET BILLOWS.
SUGGEST: FRENCH EMOTION (WIN) @ $2.40+, WHISTLE BABY (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 8 / F / 4), (2 / 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 4: Now for the Vobis Gold Mile, over you guessed it 1600m. Enforcing the ‘best horse’ rule here with top weight RED BOMBER @ $3.60+ (CROWNBET) back in grade after runs in Group 1, Group 3 and Group 3 this preparation, winning a Group 3 second up. Keen on a WIN only basis, while good value on offer for RECALCULATE who from all reports is flying and going as well as ever for Colin Scott and the $18+ on offer from SPORTSBET is great value on an each way basis. Main dangers ZEBRINZ and SABKHAT.
SUGGEST: RED BOMBER (WIN) @ $3.60+, RECALCULATE (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4 / 1 / F / 8), (2, 4 / F / 1, 8 / 1, 8) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Now for the three year olds in the Vobis Gold Reef to be also run over the mile (1600m) and this one does look quite straightforward as long as all runners are getting their chance. Slight lean TARQUIN (another Godolphin top weight we like today) @ $3.60+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU). Main dangers BENGAL CAT and APPROVED ANGER who both won well last time.
SUGGEST: TARQUIN (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (7, 10 / 1 / F / F), (7, 10 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Now for the Gold Sprint over 1200m and pace/tactics and how track is playing here as important as ever. Looking to enforce the ‘best horse rule’ with THE QUARTERBACK who has been nothing short of sensational at past two, winning the Newmarket and then bombing start in the William Reid before having the audacity to get within 1.5L of some very good sprinters. As long as backmarkers are getting their chance, should be hard to beat. Main dangers ALMIGHTY GIRL, JALAN JALAN and MISS PROMISCUITY.
SUGGEST: THE QUARTERBACK (WIN) @ $2.60+, FIRST FOUR (9, 12, 13 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 7: Vobis Gold Heath over 2000m and yet another top weight that I think will be hard to beat in the form of BONDEIGER @ $3.30+ with PALMERBET. Is above average when in form and last start suggests he most definitely is. Main dangers ADIRONDACK, WORD OF MOUTH and RONG DOOR REGGIE.
SUGGEST: BONDEIGER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.30+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 14 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for Troa Anniversary Vase over 1400m and am going with the ever consistent galloper **DAN ZEPHYR** who looks a good each way bet @ $5.50+ with WILLIAM HILL, PALMERBET and BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want a secondary play on *LUCKY LAGO* @ $19+ with WILLIAM HILL, PALMERBET, BET365 and LUXBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers PRECIOUS GEM and YESTERDAY’S SONGS.
SUGGEST: **DAN ZEPHYR** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, *LUCKY LAGO* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (7, 8 / 4, 12 / F / 4, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1100m and a good, competitive finish. Finding it hard to split three here, however given the odds available, not financial viable to back all three. As a result, need to settle on two and play the third through savers, multiples, etc. The three in question are CORAM, **NIMINYPIMINY** and TANSY. Ever so slight lean to **NIMINYPIMINY** @ $9.50+ with BET365. Seems the most bulletproof of the three, jumping from barrier 5 with 57kg on back and suggesting an each way play. Given the odds will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then a secondary play on CORAM first up. Rate this galloper who if fit enough to fire first up can definitely beat there. Monitor market for additional guide, but $9+ more than worthy of a play here. Then the main danger naturally becomes TANSY who’s currently $10 with most/all operators.
SUGGEST: NIMINYPIMINY (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, CORAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (9 / 15, 17 / F / F), (9 / F / F / 15, 17) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $8.84+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: DAN ZEPHYR @ $5.50+, NIMINYPIMINY @ $9.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: LUCKY LAGO @ $19+, ZERO PATIENCE @ $23+