2 April 2016 (Day 1 of the Championships at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, APRIL 2, 2016

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.69, currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface on the back of plenty of rain in Sydney in the last 12 days, 158.6mm to be exact! However, thankfully finer weather in the past 48 hours.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but given the rain, current assumption is that the fence will not be the place to be, which may lead to them running on. As always, be sure to keep an eye on how the track is playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We kick start a simply breathtaking day of racing with the two year olds, in the form of the Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes over 1100m. Pace/tactics and the way the track is playing crucial with some decent speed on paper here. Not overly keen to play, with the race a chance to be used to learn a bit about what might happen for the rest of the day, however think you can do worse than a smaller each way investment on **MOOSHAKISSA** @ $9+ with most operators. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers ASTERN, EL DIVINO, LIONHEARTED and ALLITERATE.

SUGGEST: **MOOSHAKISSA** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7 / F / 6), (1, 2, 3, 7 / F / 1, 2, 3, 7 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is the Group 3 Carbine Club for the three year olds over the mile and a very even, competitive affair. Slight lean at the better odds to MOHER @ $7+ with most operators, with minimal pace on paper, hence assuming James McDonald will be able to dictate or sit just behind a slower tempo and hopefully pinch a race winning lead on the main dangers before they finish strongly. Main danger most definitely DATA POINT, who I suggest in your multies and all multiples.

SUGGEST: MOHER (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Now for the Group 2 Chairman’s Handicap over 2600m and many dungeon followers will obviously be watching this closely predominately from a Sydney Cup perspective with us suggesting LIBRAN at 100/1 in early February. We are so close with the race a week away and we look a great chance (current $4+ favourite), however need to get through one more run unscathed to ensure we’re there. With that in mind, not really that well weighted here with the top weight of 58kg and as a result think the 5YO gelding is vulnerable at the skinny $2.25+ price tag. Instead, think better value lies in the form of **DEE I CEE** @ $8+ with SPORTSBET. Not ideal that he seems to have missed a lead up, so goes into this after a month off, but loved what I saw previously, pointing to being strong at the end of the extra distance he finds here. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in LIBRAN, as well as AUVRAY (terrible last start, but deserves a second chance on ability), DESTINY’S KISS who gets in well in the weights, will appreciate the sting out of the ground, query is running a strong 2600m, ahead of CAFÉ SOCIETY.

SUGGEST: **DEE I CEE** (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 4 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / 8), (1, 2, 3, 4 / 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for the open country championships final over 1400m and there looks a standout here in the form of LOFTY’S MENU @ $4+ with BET365 and UNIBET. Is the one proven at the distance, with the big weight and with the give in the ground and as a result the 59kg, nor the tricky gate (given how we expect the track to play) should hold any major problems…especially with gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard. Best value is one with form behind the top pick and that’s BANK ON HENRY at a very juicy $34+ with SPORTSBET. Great each way value, gets small weight swing on the top pick, probably not enough to turn tables but at the price, happy for an each way secondary play. Main danger the obvious in hot fave CLEARLY INNOCENT and PERA PERA.     

SUGGEST: LOFTY’S MENU (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4+, BANK ON HENRY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / 1 / F / 8), (3, 4 / 1, 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Now for the three year old fillies in the Group 3 PJ Bell Stakes over 1200m and a very even, competitive field assembled in what looks a good race. Luck in running sure to play a part, not to mention gun jockeys being worth their weight in gold. Tough race, but slight lean DENMAGIC at $8.50 with most operators which is good each way value. Then want to dabble on two at big prices in the form of PAINTED FIRETAIL @ $26+ (UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, SPORTSBET) and DENPURR @ $41+ with most operators. Main dangers leg by SECRET AGENDA who I was adamant would land as top pick, but went with the lighter weighted filly (just), PERIGNON and EGYPTIAN SYMBOL. Good race which runs even deeper than those mentioned.  

SUGGEST: DENMAGIC (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, PAINTED FIRETAIL (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, DENPURR (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 10 / 13 / F / 14, 15), (1, 3, 10 / F / 13 / 14, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Now for the first of four consecutive Group 1s, starting with the two year olds in the Inglis Sires’ Produce over 1400m. Respect the main three in the market here in TELPERION, YANKEE ROSE and OMEI SWORD, all big chances, however given the competitive nature of the race and current market, think the value is elsewhere, hence will play around two at juicier odds instead, but include these four in multiples / multies / early quaddies, etc. The two in question include DETECTIVE @ $14+ (SPORTSBET) and ZAMZAM @ $21+ with both SPORTSBET and BET365. Main dangers outlined above. Main dangers the three listed above, followed by SEABURGE.   

SUGGEST: DETECTIVE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, ZAMZAM (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 8, 11 / 1, 3, 8, 11 / F / 5, 9), (11 / 1, 3, 8 / F / 5, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Group 1 Australian Derby and no surprise TARZINO is going to be terribly hard to beat. Thought we could get him beat last time after he drew 1, hence thought would be in a very awkward spot, but showed great versatility to sit much closer to the speed, which effectively ended the chances of the rest of the field, and especially how the track was playing. However, is into a very skinny  $1.85+ and as a result, prefer to play through multies/one out quaddie leg, instead of a big standalone investment. Instead, prefer to dabble on a few who I think are legitimate blowout hopes. Given VANBRUGH another chance after getting too far back last time over the shorter 2000m distance. Looks like he’s been patiently waiting for the 2500m and with Bowman aboard, hopefully gets the horse to settle better here in his Grand Final. Confidence increases if the track is upgraded to a SOFT (5) by jump time. $13+ with SPORTSBET and UBET just represents much better value that the fave, on an each way basis. If you think TARZINO just wins, then run with a small win / larger place investment. Then want to have something on the two Kiwis in WHAT’S THE STORY @ $17+ (BET365) and *TAVAGO* at $41+ (SPORTSBET, WILLIAM HILL, CROWNBET, BET365). Given the odds will make *TAVAGO* a BERST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers led by the obvious in TARZINO, followed by the filly JAMEKA who is proven at the trip (and on a wet track) which is a big plus and TALLY who is in form, the trip the query.

SUGGEST: VANBRUGH** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, WHAT’S THE STORY (SMALL WIN / MORE PLACE) @ $17+, *TAVAGO* (SMALL WIN / MORE PLACE) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 4, 13 / F / 2, 8, 9), (1, 4, 13 / F / 1, 4, 13 / 2, 8, 9), (1 / 2 / F / 4, 8, 9, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Now for the Group 1 TJ Smith over 1200m and what an absolute cracker of a race. And although there’s plenty of very good gallopers here, I cannot go past EXOSPHERE. Ironically enough, it was her last start ‘flop’ which has had me waiting for his return to the track. Thought he was absolutely enormous down the straight in the Lightning, when unexpectedly caught on the far inferior part of the track, but still had the audacity to be only beaten 1.7L by CHAUTAUQUA on the line. Think today is the day he reminds all of his ability after having legitimate excuses at his last couple. Keen @ $3.25+ with SPORTSBET. Want something small each way on blowout hope *FAMOUS SEAMUS* @ $101+, is probably outclassed this level, but finally draws a gate and with a lack of pace on paper here, hoping they elect to ride a lot more positively today and if so, could give them a run for their money at any old price. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers CHAUTAUQUA, ENGLISH, SHIRAZ, OUR BOY MALACHI, FLAMBERGE, the latter two to appreciate the apparent lack of pace on paper.

SUGGEST: EXOSPHERE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.25+, *FAMOUS SEAMUS* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $101+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5, 9, 15 / 14 / F / 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 15) (CONFIDENCE 60%) 

 

Race 9: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap run over the famous Randwick mile. And similar to TARZINO, no surprise that the best horse in the country WINX will be extremely hard to beat, with current best odds on offer $2.15+ with SPORTSBET. Same applies, in a hot race like a Doncaster (and hats off to Waller and the team for throwing her in the deep end on several occasions now), looking to play the champ through multies/one out quaddie leg/multiples instead of a standalone big WIN only investment. Instead, looking at smaller plays on a couple who are representing good each way value and have absolute featherweights here in the form of HAPPY CLAPPER @ $13+ (SPORTSBET) and AZKADELLIA @ $9+ (BET365). HAPPY CLAPPER gets a massive 9kg swing off the champ for a 5.2L defeat last start, when ran on well from an impossible position. Slight query on the softer track, but hopefully by race time we are looking at a SOFT (5) which should be fine. While, AZKADELLIA gets her opportunity to finally crack a big one after several eye catching, impressive finishes. Main dangers WINX and stablemate/last year’s winner KERMEDEC. Super race!  

SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, AZKADELLIA (EACH WAY) @ $9+, EXACTA (WINX / KERMADEC), FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 10, 11 / F), (roving 3, 10, 11 / F), (1, 3 / F / 1, 3 / 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 10: We finish with a very generous Group 3 for the three year old fillies over 2000m, big opportunity for several lesser known fillies to get a Group 3 win to their name. Can’t believe this is a Group 3, with many sub black type form lines to try and decipher, with key being who can run out a strong 2000m. Going to go with the best horse rule on trust and hope SACRED EYE can recapture form that led to her being the Oaks favourite, before the heavens opened and she was an alarming drift on the day. Has been quite plain in her two runs this prep, especially by her standards, but given the limited nature of this race, banking on her lifting third up for what you would expect to be a race she has been specifically set for. Short enough at $4.40+ given her recent form, but good enough to play here. Blowout hope on an each way basis to ZASORCERESS @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) who will be looking for the extra distance here and should be hitting the line late. Main dangers RAINBOW PARK, ALASKAN ROSE and A LITTLE LOOSE.

SUGGEST: SACRED EYE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, ZASORCERESS (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 8 / 1, 13 / F / 1, 13), (F / 2, 6, 8 / 1, 13 / 1, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $21.48+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MOOSHAKISSA @ $9+, DEE I CEE @ $8+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TAVAGO @ $41+, FAMOUS SEAMUS @ $101+

#happypunting