ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.23, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface, despite a decent downpour on Thursday night.
RAIL: +12M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to CAULFIELD with the rail out +12M, out from +9M last Saturday. Would normally expect this to mean no disadvantage to be closer to the pace and closer to the fence, however given recent racing, hopefully all are getting their chance. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially on the back of decent rain on Thursday evening.
Race 1: We start with the two year old fillies over 1100m. We threw out an early market tip here in MODERN WONDER @ $14+ (BET365) on the back of a couple of very sharp jump-outs, however has elected to take on our IF NOT NOW WHEN in Adelaide unfortunately. Now looking at CALL ME TESS one who was big odds last night ($18+) but has shortened with the key scratchings of DECOCO and GIROUX. Now into $12+ with most operators and still worthy of an each way play. She was very good leading into the Gold Rush at Bendigo, and was a total forgive there, hence we now get better than expected value on the back of the runs that you can actually rate. Also want a WIN only play on MERRIEST who looked very smart in recent jump out and will most likewly try and lead all the way.
SUGGEST: CALL ME TESS (EACH WAY) @ $12+, MERRIEST (WIN) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 7 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1000m and this looks straight forward. Clear top pick GREY STREET who I suggest on a win only basis @ $3.10+ (BETSTAR, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU). Primary play, ahead of PILLY’S WISH who is a somewhat underrated galloper and a secondary play warranted @ $7+ here with BET365. Main danger BELLA CAPRI.
SUGGEST: GREY STREET (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.10+, PILLY’S WISH (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 1), (8 / F / 1, 6 / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 3: Benchmark 78 over 1800m. RAW IMPULSE looks the obvious and is set to be hard to beat, but they haven’t missed him at a skinny $1.85+. If keen, prefer to play through multies/multiples/one out early quaddie leg instead of major standalone investment. Instead, smaller plays at a couple at massive odds who are out of form but capable on their day. The two in question are *TEMPS VOLEUR* @ $67+ (BET365) and *ITERATION* @ $41+ also with most operators. Given the odds will make the duo our BEST LONGSHOTS of the day. However, RAW IMPULSE most definitely the one to beat, ahead of ORIENT LINE. Respect any money for the two Lloyd Williams’ runners making their Australian debuts in MORNING MIX and BANTRY BAY.
SUGGEST: *TEMPS VOLEUR* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, *ITERATION* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8, 9 / F / F / 1, 11), (roving 1, 5, 11 / F), (5 / F / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11 / 1, 2, 8, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Now for a benchmark 84 over 1400m and a competitive affair. Like one here in **STAR FORTUNE** @ $12+ with SPORTSBET and BET365, which looks super each way value. Was wary on a softer track, so now that we’re looking at a GOOD (4), confidence increases at a great price. Main danger TONOPAH, ARMADA and HARBOUR GRAY. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **STAR FORTUNE** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 10 / F / F / 6), (1, 8, 10 / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Now for a benchmark 84 for the fillies and mares over 1400m and another open and competitive affair. Slight lean MEFNOODA on a WIN only basis at $3+ following impressive first up run. Good enough to go on with it here. Then, want a secondary play on one who doesn’t win out of turn in INISHOWEN but is more than capable on her day and gets decent enough weight swing from good first up run. $12+ with PALMERBET and BET365. Good each way price, even though we are taking a little on trust here. Main dangers the obvious in TELOPEA, strong winning chance.
SUGGEST: MEFNOODA (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3+, INISHOWEN (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 9 / F / 8), (6 / F / 9 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Benchmark 70 for the three year old fillies over 1400m and reckon this is tough. Slight lean towards BACKSTREET LOVER @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET) first up for Jason Warren after trial told me she’s ready to fire first up. Happy with a standalone each way investment given current odds, then just a saving first four with main dangers LYUBA, DEJA BLUE, FRANCAIS and ABBEY MARIE.
SUGGEST: BACKSTREET LOVER (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 7, 11 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now a benchmark 78 for the three year olds over 1100m and like INVINCIBLE HEART here at $5.50+ with BET365 after they elected to head this way instead of the more difficult task in Adelaide. Reckon this filly is above average and we may not have seen the best of her as yet. Then want a secondary play on JUST GOT LUCKY at a juicy $14+ with SPORTSBET. Gets the right weight swing on key danger PRUSSIAN VIXEN to turn tables here at an excellent each way price. . Main dangers PRUSSIAN VIXEN (absolutely flying), SAINT VALOREM, STOKER and ABILITY.
SUGGEST: INVINCIBLE HEART (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5.50+, JUST GOT LUCKY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 6, 9 / 3 / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for the feature, the listed Bel Esprit Stakes over 1100m and a very good race for this time of year. Finding it hard to split two who I think are the class gallopers here and as a result looking at WIN only plays on them both given current odds. Can’t split PITTSBURGH FLYER @ $7+ with most operators and UNDER THE LOUVRE @ $5+ (BET365, PALMERBET, UBET, LUXBET). Both I believe have class gallopers on the rest of the field and with even luck in running and a track giving all runners their chance, should prove hard to beat. Nick Hall will need to be on his toes on PITTSBURGH FLYER from barrier 1 to ensure he gets a clear run in transit, especially at the top of the straight. Has been very good to dungeon followers in the past and hopefully can be good again today. Sometimes you need to keep it simple and enforce the ‘best horse’ or on this occasion the ‘best horses’ rule.
SUGGEST: PITTSBURGH FLYER (WIN) @ $7+, UNDER THE LOUVRE (WIN) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 4 / 1, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 9: We finish with an open handicap over 2000m. REAL LOVE is the big X-factor here, the clear-cut class galloper of the field but dropping from 3200m to 2000m after a 40 day freshen up. Would take a great training performance to pull that off, but it’s in the hands of the right man, notably D.K.Weir. In saying that at the short price, going to leave for multies/multiples/potentially a one out/narrow quaddie leg. Think the safer play at better odds is **GOLDEN MANE** @ $6+ with BET365. Another who was dual accepted in Adelaide and Melbourne and they’ve also elected to run with what looks a tougher option here, but think he can step up to the plate. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers REAL LOVE, KAREEMING, DE LITTLE ENGINE and GOOD VALUE.
SUGGEST: **GOLDEN MANE** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 9, 12 / F / F / 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds $13.67+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: STAR FORTUNE @ $12+, GOLDEN MANE @ $6+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ITERATION @ $41+, TEMPS VOLEUR @ $67+