ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2015
Racing at MORPHETTVILLE with the penetrometer reading 5.34, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +6M (1200M TO WINNING POST), +3M (REMAINDER). We change things up as we follow our filly to Adelaide, and in turn land on arguably the best racing card in Australia today at Morphettville. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a very small field of only 5 runners in a benchmark 90 over 2020m. Keen on SURVIVED here @ $4.20+ with most operators. Thinking Williams can dictate and hopefully hold them off late despite the big weight. Was on the wrong part of the track last time and can improve in what looks an easier affair. Weight the query, but think his ability and hopefully a well judged Williams’ ride can offset that. Main dangers the obvious in KILLARNEY KID and FLYING CASINO. No third dividend.
SUGGEST: SURVIVED (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / 1 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 2, 4, 5, 6), (2, 3 / 2, 4, 5, 6 / 1 / 2, 4, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Now for the two year old colts and geldings over 1050m, one race we’ll be paying very close attention to, given the distance and IF NOT NOW WHEN and a strong bunch of 2YTO fillies running around in race 5. Liked what I saw in recent trial by FLAMES OF FIRE, narrowly defeating key rival here in CAPTAIN DUFFY. $7.50+ with most operators looks a nice enough price, despite the usual unknowns with lightly raced two year olds, especially when there’s several debutantes. Respect any support for any runners, especially either of the Stokes runners (CAPTAIN DUFFY and HARD PROMISE) or the Smerdon or Hayes runners OAK DOOR (who can improve on debut run) and BLUE TYCOON. Note, no third dividend.
SUGGEST: FLAMES OF FIRE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (<anything they back late> / 3 / F / F), (<anything they back late> / F / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 70 over 1100m. Tricky race with several key hopes returning from breaks. Pace/tactics also set to be key with the potential for only a moderate tempo up front. For this reason, slight lean towards WAR THUNDER who should be right on the pace and brings consistent form to town again. $8.50+ with BET365 a nice each way price and finally we get a third dividend. Main danger HERENOA.
SUGGEST: WAR THUNDER (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for a benchmark 80 for the fillies and mares over 1200m. Contrary to a drift at the moment, like **OUR HARMONY** here at the much better than expected $7+ with SPORTSBET. Always a little wary if the drift continues, but on current form, weights (gets in well after 3kg claim) and ideal barrier draw, don’t see a reason to jump off, especially at these inflated odds. Main dangers RATIONALITY and REAL MAGNUS. Will make our BEST VALUE of day.
SUGGEST: **OUR HARMONY** (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (6, 8 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for a race that I personally have a big interest in, and unfortunately for us it has come up very strong, or so it seems on paper. IF NOT NOW WHEN is well, has maintained her form since her latest win at Cranbourne, but will need to be at her best to win here and will need some luck from the gate (10 of 11). Fingers crossed. From a betting perspective, two jump out more than others in what looks a very deep race. The two in question are MOQLA for the Hayes/Dabernig yard @ $8.50+ with BET365, and MODERN WONDER @ $11+ (BET365, UBET) who we tipped at Caulfield, however has been sent to Adelaide for what looks a much tougher affair. Trialled very well. Hard race.
SUGGEST: MOQLA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, MODERN WONDER (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5, 10 / F / 5, 10), (F / F / 5, 10 / 5, 10) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Group 3 Irwin Stakes over 1100m and we’ll keep this one short and sweet. TUSCAN SLING is simply better than these and should be winning assuming 80-90% fitness first up. Just need Harry Coffey to be on his toes from the inside draw and keep her out of trouble. Simply superior. WIN only play @ $2.05+ with UNIBET. Main dangers NOSTRADAMUS, RUNWAY STAR and LA PASSE.
SUGGEST: TUSCAN SLING (WIN) @ $2.05+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 10 / 9 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 7: Now another Group 3, this time for the three year old fillies. Very tough race. I’d be going narrow in leg 2 of the quaddie with TUSCAN SLING and wide here and potentially the other two legs. Slight lean SAILING BY @ $6+ (PALMERBET, UBET), ahead of COMPRENDE @ $14+ with BET365. Wasn’t far behind SAILING BY last time and despite same weights here, decent enough odds to play around the two with. Main danger SILENT SEDITION with the main/only query the trip.
SUGGEST: SAILING BY (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, COMPRENDE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 5 / F / 7), (F / 3, 5, 7 / F / 3, 5, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: And we finish a very good, but very tricky card with a listed event for the three year olds over 1100m. Reckon it’s a race in four with MISS GUNPOWDER, VIDDORO, SUPER CASH and DON’T DOUBT MAMMA and going with the latter in DON’T DOUBT MAMMA @ $3.80+ with CROWNBET, UNIBET and SPORTSBET. Saving multiples with the other three. Super race. Will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **DON’T DOUBT MAMMA** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 9 / 2 / F / F), (boxed (1, 2, 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
** BEST VALUE **: OUR HARMONY @ $7+, DON’T DOUBT MAMMA @ $3.80+