30 April 2016 (Racing at Morphettville - Adelaide)

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MORPHETTVILLE PARKS

SATURDAY, APRIL 30, 2015

 

Racing at MORPHETTVILLE PARKS with the penetrometer reading 5.64, so currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface.

RAIL: +6M (1200M TO WINNING POST), +3M (REMAINDER). On the back of great success last week in Adelaide, we’ve decided to stay in the city of churches to compliment the Caulfield summary. Please note this is being run on the Morphettville Parks track which normally favours on pacers, however there has been some rain about which may even things up, especially as the day goes on. Rain forecast for later in the day/night, so hopefully that holds off until after the last, but obviously be wary if it doesn’t as there is even a chance of thunderstorms. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially on the back of decent rain on Thursday evening.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over 2400m and another small field to start the day, just as was the case last week. RICH RIVER jumps out despite being the bridesmaid at past two and surely the stable keen to get him back in the winner’s stall. From barrier two has the choice of leading, or taking a sit and as a result should be given a dream run and have no excuses as they straighten for home. Suggest a WIN only play at $2.90+ with UBET. Throw a blanket over the rest and given small field 6, doesn’t cost much to take the field in multiples for a decent percentage.

SUGGEST: RICH RIVER (WIN) @ $2.90+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 4, 7 / 6 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 75 over 1950m and there doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper, with pace/tactics set to be key. For this reason have come up with **ZAYAK** on top @ $7.50+ with BET365, UNIBET, SPORTSBET, for what will hopefully be an early double for jockey Harry Coffey. From barrier 3 can settle on pace, while main danger HAVE PLENTY expected to be at the opposite end of the field with the field in front of him. Happy to play around the two coming out of the strongest form reference in my opinion. **ZAYAK** also gets a handy pull at the weights after finishing behind HAVE PLENTY last time.  Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **ZAYAK** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 82 over 1000m and SHAF looks very hard to beat here at $3.60+ (BET365) and can make it four in a row. Decent enough speed up front here, so big advantage to be drawn well in 4, can settle wherever Neilson likes and hopefully be too strong late. Then, want something on a great longshot in *STRATUMSPHERE* at a juicy $26+ with most/all operators. Meets several key rivals here well at the weights after claim and is rarely far away. i.e. Meets LUCKY SYMBOL 3.5kg better for betting him back on December 5. Great each way price and given odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers DEIHEROS, LUCKY SYMBOL, BRAVE JOURNEY and JENNYFROMTHEBLOCK at decent odds also.

SUGGEST: SHAF (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, *STRATUMSPHERE* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 10 / 7 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 4: Now for one of the features on the card, in the form of the Group 3 Sires Produce (there seem to be a lot of these of late) for the two year olds over 1400m and this looks like another quite light Group 3 in Adelaide, which is a shame given the strength of the listed race last week. Always the chance of one jumping out of the ground and improving, given many of these are obviously lightly raced, but despite the tricky gate (9) think SMART MANOEUVRE @ $3.60+ (UBET) can get the job done for the lethal Stokes/Tourneur combination. Has actually drawn awkwardly at every start and Dom will need to be on his toes to ensure they land in a decent spot. Will also have the benefit of three earlier races to determine how track is playing. Main danger SWEET VARDEN and MORVADA.

SUGGEST: SMART MANOEUVRE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / 7 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5: Next is a benchmark 82 over 1300m, this looks tough, very even, with pace, tactics, luck in running and how the track is playing key. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace on paper, hence on pacers could be benefitted. Keen to play around two here at juicy odds. First, **SIR BERUS** first up @ $10+ with UBET and SPORTSBET. Normally races in better company than this and if fit and ready to fire first up can be beating these at double figure odds. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUe bet of the day. The other is at the bottom of the weights in DUCKWORTH @ $21+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Comes out of the same form race as many others here (won by Casino Wizard on April 16), but most importantly looks set to land in a better spot than most rivals here and wasn’t fart behind many key rivals here, and has come up much bigger odds. Main dangers MASTER SOMMELIER, VENTIC, SILENT WHISPER and BRADMAN. First four has the potential to pay big, so worth an investment in that space.  

SUGGEST: **SIR BERUS** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, DUCKWORTH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 9, 10 / 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 18 / F / 2, 18) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: Now for another of the drawcards of the day, this time the Listed Nitschke Stakes over 1400m. RAGEESE does look very hard to beat especially with the big drop in weight from last start victory, however is rock bottom odds at $1.75+. As usual, given the very skinny odds, prefer to play through multies/one out quaddie leg instead of large standalone investment, in order to reduce risk. Instead think SERENADE can finally breakthrough in town after getting a much needed confidence boosting win at Ballarat last time. This is not overly tough and has always showed signs of ability, but really time to start seeing it. $5.50+ good enough each way price with most operators. Also, want to play at one who came up stupid odds (wish I had seen opening $61+ price earlier) for DANE THUNDER. Still $17+ with SPORTSBET and BET365 which I still think is decent enough odds to play. Main dangers CATCH A FIRE (more than capable, but terribly weighted, especially against the fave) and BEAUTIFUL FLYER and obviously RAGEESE.

SUGGEST: SERENADE (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, DANE THUNDER (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 1, 5, 11, 12 / 1, 5, 11, 12 / 1, 5, 11, 12), (1, 2, 11 / 5, 12 / F / 5, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Next is the penultimate event on the card, the Listed City of Adelaide Handicap to be run over 1400m and this is tough. Many different form lines to line up, not to mentioned key hopes such as ZEBULON first up since February 2015!.Slight lean to the very consistent MR BACKCHAT who has been placed at 15 of 26 starts, and connections will be hoping for win number 8 here. Nicely weighted, in form, maps well, should be right in the finish in a tough race @ $6.50+ with SPORTSBET and UNIBET on an each way basis. Just ahead of DYLANSON @ $8.50+ with BET365 who I suggest on a WIN only basis. Simply found a decent field too slick last time and gets back to more suitable 1400m trip given the prep he’s had and will settle closer to the pace here to be in the right place at the right time, so shouldn’t have any excuses. Finally, a speculative play on one at ‘any old odds’ who is better than recent form suggests in *KISS ME KETUT* @ $81+ with LUXBET and SPORTSBET. Needs to improve, but at such odds, must have a small dabble. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers stablemate RATIONALITY who won well last time, CASINO WIZARD, ZEBULON who if 100% ready to fire is terribly hard to beat and ALCOHOL who again has raced very well in the past but also returning from injury issue last prep. Be wary for any serious money for any of the dangers and be sure to include all in multiples/quaddies.

SUGGEST: MR BACKCHAT (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, DYLANSON (WIN) @ $8.50+, *KISS ME KETUT* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 10, 13 / 3, 7, 14 / F / 3, 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: And we finish with a Group 3 for the three year olds over 2020m and don’t see any reason why HOWARD BE THY NAME doesn’t win again as long as the rain hasn’t come, as he is unknown on a softer track. $2.80+ on a WIN only basis with SPORTSBET and BET365. Best value and legitimate winning chance I think is *MANHATTAN BOSS* at a very juicy $41+ with most/all operators. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: HOWARD BE THY NAME (WIN) @ $2.80+, *MANHATTAN BOSS* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2 / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 55%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $16.92+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ZAYAK @ $7.50+, SIR BERUS @ $10+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MANHATTAN BOSS @ $41+, KISS ME KETUT @ $81+

#happypunting