ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, APRIL 9, 2016
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 5.58, currently looking at a SOFT (6) surface.
RAIL: +6M (1600m to winning post), +3M (remainder). We head to ROYAL RANDWICK on the back of last week’s Day 1 of The Championships when the rail was in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant, but given the revised rail position, expecting no major disadvantage to be closer to the fence (unlike last week), especially early in the day, with the track potentially evening out as the day goes on. As always, be sure to keep an eye on how the track is playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a Listed event for the two year olds over the famous Randwick mile. Even affair with little between them on face value, but do think Bowman will give PRIZED ICON @ $3.40+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, UNIBET, BETSTAR) the right run and pinch a race winning lead with most fancies flashing home late, hopefully once it’s all over. Making the assumption for this race and the card, that there’s no disadvantage to be close to the pace and fence, and with only even pace at best here, up there should definitely be the place to be. Main dangers OBSCURA, REINFORCED and CROWN HIM.
SUGGEST: PRIZED ICON (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.40+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 5 / F / F / 1), (2, 4, 5 / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: Another Listed event, this time for the three year olds over 1400m, with a big field, but again not a heap of speed on paper. Like **KIMBERLEY STAR** here on an each way basis. Looks set to get the right run, on/just off the pace, handles softer going, will be better suited up to the 1400m, fitter third up as she normally takes a couple of runs to get to her peak. Many ticks and respectable each way value at $6.50+ (UBET), although as big as $12 was apparently offers in some dodgy early markets. Regardless, will make a BEST VALUE of the day on an each way basis. Main dangers SONIC SWISH, SANTA ANA LANE, HANDFAST and TULSA all at healthy prices, at $11+, $7.50+, $13+ and $13+ respectively.
SUGGEST: **KIMBERLEY STAR** (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8, 9, 14 / F / F / 3) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Now for the Provincial Championships Final, an open event over 1400m and this looks close to a raffle. In saying that, want to play around two here in BETTER NOT BLUE at $13+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and MARPLE MISS @ $14+ (most operators), just hoping she can handle the softer ground, having failed to run a place in 5 starts on DEAD going, however was close enough last time on a heavy track to tell me she can handle it. Throw a blanket over the rest from there. Deep race.
SUGGEST: BETTER NOT BLUE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $13+, MARPLE MISS (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 6 / F / 2, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for the first of seven straight Group races, starting with the Group 3 Percy Skyes Stakes for the two year old fillies over 1200m. Looks to be decent speed on paper, hence hoping the track is giving all their chance, in this instance those expected to settle a little further back. This is expected to be the case with two I’m keen to play around at nice odds, however be sure to monitor market as both are unknown on race day on a softer track. The two in question are the two at the bottom of the weights in GRETNA @ $8+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET) and PALOMINO @ $21+ with CROWNBET, UBET and BET365. Main dangers THYME FOR ROSES, EMPHATICALLY, SOVIET SECRET and TWIST TOPS.
SUGGEST: GRETNA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8+, PALOMINO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 6 / 11, 12 / F / 11, 12) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Group 2 3YO Arrowfield Sprint over 1200m. Good race, but simply cannot go past JAPONISME here @ $3.10+ (BETSTAR, LADBROKES) back to own age group after being excellent in recent Group 1s against some of the best. With gun hoop Bowman aboard, which is important given decent pace on paper, and will be simply very hard to beat. Also, be sure to have something on one here at any old price in *SPIETH* (timely return to the track with the Masters in progress) who is quick, trialled brilliantly and hasn’t done much at all wrong in short career to date. $91+ on offer with CROWNBET and a worthy secondary play, despite the jump in grade. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers PETITS FILOU, COUNTERATTACK (always improves with blinkers on) and SPILL THE BEANS who would have been set for this race (Arrowfield) and has good form on the softer track.
SUGGEST: JAPONISME (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $3.10+, *SPIETH* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $91+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6, 12 / 1 / F / F), (3, 6, 12 / F / 1, 15 / 1, 3, 6, 12, 15) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 6: Now for the first of four Group 1, starting with the Group 1 Australian Oaks for the three year old fillies run over 2400m. And this is either very straightforward or really difficult. Had JAMEKA drawn a better gate and/or had there been less pace on paper, then would be close to declaring her, however she’s drawn 16 and there’s pace, hence Ollie will need to ride well to ensure she gets a nice enough run in transit. Given her odds will leave for multies, a one out quaddie leg and multiples and instead play through four at very big odds, all ranging from $34+ - $51+. Two rattled home in the final event last Saturday and not sure why fillies who finished like that are both at $34+ in DIAMOND MADE and ALASKAN ROSE. The third is CHABAUD @ $41+ (SPORTSBET), and the final one is AMBIENCE @ $51+ (UBET, CROWNBET, BET365) who was well beaten in the Victorian Oaks, but will appreciate the softer track and is ready to improve over the longer distance. Main danger JAMEKA as mentioned, ahead of HONESTA and HAPPY HANNAH. Will actually have something on the Victorian Oaks trifecta being replicated in the Australian Oaks with JAMEKA, HONESTA, AMBIENCE. Risky, but despite cashing in last week on the back of the NZ form in the Derby (TAVAGO saluting at $47), risking he fillies on the back of the replays watched, think the Aussie girls have them covered. Fingers crossed!
SUGGEST: DIAMOND MADE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $34+, ALASKAN ROSE (WIN / EW) @ $34+, CHABAUD (WIN / EW) @ $41+, AMBIENCE (WIN / EW) @ $51+, TRIFECTA (boxed 1, 3, 5), FIRST FOUR (1 / 3, 13 / F / 5, 8, 9, 11), (1, 3, 13 / F / 1, 3, 13, 5, 8, 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the Group 1 Sydney Cup where we have an interest regardless on the back of suggesting a play on LIBRAN back in early February at the very juicy odds of 100/1. Glad many have snapped up, and recommend now laying/saving depending on how much you have it going for. So, please keep in mind today’s suggestions are based on the assumption you have backed LIBRAN already, which means we’re looking to save around the main dangers. There aren’t many two mile events in Australia, so always some guesswork with who will run it strongly, especially given the expected softer conditions, however we do have some recent form to work with from the past 12 months. Although, it is still an unknown for LIBRAN, we’ll find out very soon. Anyways, leaning towards GRAND MARSHAL @ $4.60+ with PALMERBET who I suggest on a WIN only basis, in addition to GALLANTE @ $11+ with BET365. Main dangers WHO SHOT THEBARMAN and ALMOONQITH despite slight query on the softer track (unseen on softer going since 2013 in Europe). Suggest predominately backing around all four if you have decent coin going for LIBRAN, or simply the two suggested above if you don’t have a been to lay.
SUGGEST: GRAND MARSHAL (WIN) @ $4.60+, GALLANTE (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7 / 3 / F / F), (1, 2, 3, 7 / F / F / 4), (F / 1, 2, 3, 7 / F / 4) (roving 1, 3, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Group 1 Queen of the Turf for the fillies and mares over the mile. Pace/tactics/how track is playing key with AZKADELLIA the one to beat, however short enough at $3.60+ and given usual racing style to get back and swoop, inclined to risk standalone at the price. Instead play through multies/multiples and potentially even a one out quaddie leg instead, if keen. Actually leaning towards BADAWIYA out to a very respectable $9.50+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BETSTAR). Will need some luck from the wide gate, but willing to take the risk that class can prevail and I personally think this girl oozes class, we just haven’t see it at the top level as yet. Just ahead of SUAVITO @ $11+ with SPORTSBET, while speculative longshot dabble on CORONATION SHALLAN @ $126+ with SPORTSBET. Main dangers the obvious in AZKADELLIA and ZANBAGH who are must includes in all multies/multiples/quaddies.
SUGGEST: BADAWIYA (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, SUAVITO (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $11+, CORONATION SHALLAN (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $126+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / F / F / 1, 10, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: And now for the big one, the $4 million Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes run over 2000m and looking to back a few at big odds here that come out of the controversial Australia Cup, won on protest by PREFERMENT to the joy of Dungeon followers. First past the post was AWESOME ROCK, before losing it in the steward’s room, hence hard to work out at same weights why one is $5.50+ and the other is $34+. As much as I rate PREFERMENT, the value is with the runner up AWESOME ROCK @ $34+, in addition to the 3rd and 4th placegetters in RISING ROMANCE @ $26+ (CROWNBET) and *FENWAY* at a very juicy $67+ with SPORTSBET, all within 1.5L of the winner. Given the odds will make FENWAY a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers PREFERMENT (who did end up winning the race in question), THE UNITED STATES, CRITERION and LUCIA VALENTINA.
SUGGEST: AWESOME ROCK (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $34+, RISING ROMANCE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $26+, *FENWAY* (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $67+, (1, 2, 5, 12 / F / F / 13, 14, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 10: We finish with the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1200m and keen on **CRADLE ME** here at $6+ with BET365. Gets massive weight swing (drops 5kg) after lumping 59kg past two and is now ready to return to the winner’s stalls back down to 54kg. Keen and given odds available will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Wide open beyond her, best of a long list of dangers led by GRIANTE, VEZELAY and BOUNDING. If SOFT (7) or worse at jump time, want to have something on BRING ME THE MAID also, however given current track rating and forecast, expecting SOFT (6) at the very worst.
SUGGEST: **CRADLE ME** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 10 / F / F / 6), (F / 1, 2, 6, 10 / F / 1, 2, 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Average odds a massive $29.29+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: KIMBERLEY STAR @ $6.50+, CRADLE ME @ $6+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SPIETH @ $91+, FENWAY @ $67+