14 May 2016 (Group 1 racing at Doomben)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

DOOMBEN

SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2015

 

Racing at DOOMBEN with the penetrometer reading 4.9, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Doomben with the rail in the TRUE position. Hoping/expecting an even track, pace dependant, with no major disadvantage on pace given the tight turning nature of the track. In saying that with the rail TRUE should assist those wider/off pace a little more, but 2-3 off fence would probably be the place to be. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the three year olds over 1050m and think the bookies have nailed the market here with the two equal faves in DIVINE CENTURI and SECRET SAGA. Drawn to get the right runs and Blake Shinn will know not to get too far back on SECRET SAGA. Will keep it simple and simply play the two to quinella the race or just miss as a saver.

SUGGEST: QUINELLA (DIVINE CENTURI, SECRET SAGA), FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / F / 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Class 6 set weights over 1110m and thinking similar here with two clear top picks, however on this occasion I am leaning one way given the better odds on offer. Slight lean FREEZE THE CHARGES @ $4.80+ with BET365 who should be able to cross and lead comfortably enough (always the risk of a couple trying to make it difficult), but should she cross with minimal fuss, looks set to be terribly hard to run down, especially with the 52.5kg on her back. Main danger the obvious in ANOTHER WHISKEY who will be hitting the line late, but hopefully the line arrives in time. ANOTHER WHISKEY could definitely be a suggestion for multies and/or even a one out/narrow early quaddie leg. If you take FREEZE THE CHARGES to WIN, then slot her into the first four below with her running 2nd, alternatively if you play EACH WAY, slot her in to run 4th.

SUGGEST: FREEZE THE CHARGES (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 15 / F / F), (2 / F / F / 15) (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 85 over 1350m where ELEGANT COMPOSURE aims for the remarkable feat of 7 wins from 7 starts. Hard to beat, no real reason to knock, but at the shorter price, happy to play elsewhere as the great run could be about to end. Given market, running with DESERT GENERAL @ $5.50+ with most operators, has been racing well/okay in better grade and time to get into the winner’s stall after showing potential for a little while now. Also want smaller each way plays on CHARIOTS OF GOLD at a very juicy $26+ with SPORTSBET and FLAMBOYER @ $36+ with BET365. Drawn terribly, but will push forward and should he cross without too much trouble, should give a great sight at odds. Main dangers the obvious in ELEGANT COMPOSURE and top weight RULING FORCE.

SUGGEST: DESERT GENERAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, CHARIOTS OF GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FLAMBOYER (EACH WAY) @ $36+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / 15 / F / 5, 6, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 85 over 1350m where ELEGANT COMPOSURE aims for the remarkable feat of 7 wins from 7 starts. Hard to beat, no real reason to knock, but at the shorter price, happy to play elsewhere as the great run could be about to end. Given market, running with DESERT GENERAL @ $5.50+ with most operators, has been racing well/okay in better grade and time to get into the winner’s stall after showing potential for a little while now. Also want smaller each way plays on CHARIOTS OF GOLD at a very juicy $26+ with SPORTSBET and *FLAMBOYER* @ $36+ with BET365. Drawn terribly, but will push forward and should he cross without too much trouble, should give a great sight at odds. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in ELEGANT COMPOSURE and top weight RULING FORCE.

SUGGEST: DESERT GENERAL (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, CHARIOTS OF GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *FLAMBOYER* (EACH WAY) @ $36+, FIRST FOUR (1, 7 / 15 / F / 5, 6, 15) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Now for the first of several Group races, commencing with the Group 3 JRA Cup to be run over 2000m and definitely like the value on offer for top weight JUNOOB at a very juicy $16+ with BET365. Represents great each way value as long as he’s ridden positively from the good draw, which I have no doubt gun hoop Blake Shinn will do. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD and REAL LOVE, keen to play around the three only.

SUGGEST: **JUNOOB** (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (roving 1, 3, 6 / F), (3, 6 / F / F / 1) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Now for the two year olds over 1200m and this does look tricky for obvious reasons, notably with several returning from breaks (some greater than others) and the query as to whether the rad hot fave TIYATROLANI can run out a strong 1200m. Should be given every chance given the nature of the Doomben track, however not keen to dabble at the very skinny $2.15+ odds with a lot of potential and apparent quality here. Just going to have the one play here around *ATTENTION* who is more than capable if wound up enough for this, at a very generous $31+ with SPORTSBET, UNIBET and BET365, happy to take the punt he’s somewhere close. Given the odds will make a BREST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in TIYATROLANI, NIKITAS and SOUCHEZ.

SUGGEST: *ATTENTION* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1, 14 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: Now for the Listed Member’s Handicap to be run over 1600m and this looks tough with pace/tactics and how the track is playing key. On the assumption they don’t go too hard in front (it is a possibility, especially if there’s an apparent leader’s advantage in the earlier races, then keen to play around a few at big odds. Slight lean **HEART OF A WARRIOR** who is racing in very consistent form and looks a nice each way bet at $8.50+. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then want a play on MY QUILTER @ $18+ with LUXBET and UNIBET, who is well weighted here in comparison to key rival BEWHATYOUWANNABE. Finally, want to have something small each way on FAUST at $151+ with BET365. Tough race, hoping for a blowout with one of the three mentioned.

SUGGEST: **HEART OF A WARRIOR** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, MY QUILTER (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $18+, FAUST (EACH WAY – TERTIARY) @ $151+, FIRST FOUR (F / 12 / F / 6, 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, anywhere in Australia today, in the form of the Group 1 BTC Cup to be run over 1200m and what a super race. Going to stick with one who we were very keen on last time when we fell in and that’s JAPONISME @ $3.60+ with UBET, BET365 and UNIBET. Favourites don’t necessarily have a great record in this race, but drawn to get the ideal run and be hard to beat. The one I’m most wary of and as a result want a secondary play on is DOTHRAKI @ $10+ with BET365. Can fly fresh and interestingly Blake Shinn is the regular jockey for several here and it seems he has elected to take this mount instead. Main dangers FELL SWOOP, ARTLEE and MALAGUERRA, but doesn’t necessarily end there.

SUGGEST: JAPONISME (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3.60+, DOTHRAKI (WIN / EACH WAY) @$10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 8 / 4, 11 / F / 4, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: And we finish a bumper card with the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate over 2000m for the three year olds. Brings back great memories of the great Rough Habit and think MACKINTOSH will be very hard to beat for the Chris Waller stable at $2.90+. Better odds were on offer, have been snapped up but still good enough to play on a WIN only basis.

SUGGEST: MACKINTOSH (WIN) @ $2.90+ (CONFIDENCE 50%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $25.74+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: JUNOOB @ $16+, HEART OF A WARRIOR @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: FLAMBOYER @ $36+, ATTENTION @ $31+

#happypunting