ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.04, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing at Caulfield once again with the rail out +3M after being in the TRUE position two weeks’ back. Hoping/expecting an even track, pace dependant, with no major disadvantage on pace. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 90 over 2000m and RAW IMPULSE completely dominated the field at almost Black Caviar type odds. RAW IMPULSE should be winning this, however not keen enough to take $1.35+ standalone. Instead play through multies to help bolster to a more acceptable price.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Plenty of guesswork with the two year olds here over 1100m. Several first starters who have trialled well enough to entertain here, against several with good form led by BLUE TYCOON, BRINGAROO and GIMLET. Reckon BRINGAROO wins if he settles early, however that has proven to be an issue, so a legitimate query. At this stage, a few too many unknowns, so unfortunately looking to hold fire on the first two at Caulfield today. No point risking money for the sake of it.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: Now for the mares over 1200m and an even, competitive affair as you tend to expect with the mares. Slight lean A LOTTA LOVE @ $4.60+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET), while best value I think lies with ELLE EXCITE @ $17+ with BET365. Dangers run deep led by DANESTREOM, KHUTULUN, GOLD HEIST and JAPHILS who will have the sentimental money aboard (which sometimes equates to little value/unders being offered) given the Phil Sly factor.
SUGGEST: A LOTTA LOVE (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, ELLE EXCITE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 11 / 4 / F / 8), (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over 1400m and keen on LYUBA here @ $3+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS, BET365 and BETSTAR. Nice 3kg claim and although I don’t think there’s much between she and FRANCAIS, looking this way given the better draw and on pace style which should suit with not a great deal of pace on paper. Main danger most definitely FRANCAIS, AIR APPARENT and MILES OF KRISHNAN.
SUGGEST: LYUBA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $3+, FIRST FOUR (5, 7, 9 / 1 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Benchmark 78 over 1400m. Good, competitive race with a slight lean to **BASCULE** @ $6+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Interestingly, now with Darren Weir after being in the Waller stable to date and seemingly finding form in his past three. I think the key has been putting him in better positions closer to the pace in order to minimise the chance of bad luck playing a part. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers led by VOLCANISH ASH who I rate very highly, but is drawn awkwardly which may result in doing a bit of work out a little wide here, ahead of THINKING OF YOU.
SUGGEST: **BASCULE** (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (1, 14 / 4 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now for the three year olds over 2000m. Looked and tried to get UNBREAKABLE beat @ $2.60+ (UBET, UNIBET), but upon closer inspection, this does look an ideal race to make it back to back wins here. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Speculative value bet on *MERU* who looks a good price @ $26+ (UBET) despite the drop down from 2800m here. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day.
SUGGEST: UNBREAKABLE (WIN) @ $2.60+, *MERU* (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 15) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Next are the three year olds again, but this time over the shorter 1200m and have a feeling the sentimental win might come here in the famous Phil Sly colours in the form of ABILITY. We were on at Cranbourne two starts back which happened to be the final time Phil would have seen one of his horses win a race before passing away soon after. Reckon he can do it again here and suggest on a win only basis at $3.60+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR. Also want to play TAN TAT CHARGER @ $8.50+ with UBET and SPORTSBET, gets in very well at the weights here after just missing last time behind key rival here in DIVINE MR ARTIE. Main dangers BASSETT, DIVINE MR ARTIE, NUDIERUDIE and RAGAZZO DEL CORSO at a juicy price.
SUGGEST: ABILITY (WIN) @ $3.60+, TAN TAT CHARGER (EACH WAY) @$8.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 9 / 4, 8 / F / 4, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Now for a benchmark 90 over 1100m and keen on LONROCKSTAR here at a juicy $10+ price with UBET. Excellent each way value at this level, with the reason why we’re getting a decent price due to the bad gate, which I think can hopefully be offset by the 2kg claim and an ounce of luck. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also want a secondary play on PILLY’S WISH @ $14+ with BET365. Finally, keen to see SMACKDOWN in the yard as this galloper is very capable on his day and can also fly fresh. Has been out for a massive 280 days, so a lot will depend on fitness and soundness levels, however at $41+ (UBET and BET365) worthy of a speculative smaller play and given odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers OLIVIER, RICH JACK and BELESRON.
SUGGEST: **LONROCKSTAR** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $10+, PILLY’S WISH (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, *SMACKDOWN* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9, 11 / F / 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 14 / 3, 4, 14) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: We finish with an open event over the mile and a very competitive finish to the card. A stack of legitimate chances with luck in running and any bias sure to play a factor in the finish, however think two in particular stand out as better value bets given current markets. The two in question are MOONOVERMANHATTAN @ $12+ (UBET and BET365) and EXCITES ZELADY @ $17+ with BET365. We were on MOONOVERMANHATTAN last time, but was drawn poorly and simply got too far back as a result. Liked the way he finished and set to position much closer here from the good gate. EXCITES ZELADY ran well in good race last time in Adelaide and despite bad draw, can hopefully find a spot leading or close to, without doing too much work and should that happen, should give a great each way sight. Main dangers LORD DURANTE, REFULGENT, EVERY FAITH and HOLLYWOOD BOUND. All set to be right in the finish in a deep race.
SUGGEST: MOONOVERMANHATTAN (EACH WAY) @ $12+, EXCITES ZELADY (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (8, 11, 12, 14 / 8, 11, 12, 14 / F / 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $12.71+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: BASCULE @ $6+, LONROCKSTAR @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: MERU @ $26+, SMACKDOWN @ $41+