ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY MAY 21, 2016
Racing at DOOMBEN with the penetrometer currently reading 5.0, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to DOOMBEN with the rail out +2M, with fine weather forecast, expecting no disadvantage to be on pace, close to the fence. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: Tricky start with a Listed event over 1050m and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper. As a result, think the race might be setup for something off the pace (normally not the ideal place to be over this distance at Doomben). As a result, think there’s some value on offer with DREAM CHOICE @ $19+ with BET365. Will need some luck at the top of the straight with a wall of horses in front, however at the price happy to take the punt the luck comes. Throw a blanket over the rest, in a very even affair.
SUGGEST: DREAM CHOICE (EACH WAY) @ $19+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Benchmark 89 over 2000m and a very tricky affair. Pace/tactics set to be key. Think best value lies in the form of ADORABEEL at a very juicy $26+ with BET365. Main danger COL ’N’ LIL, but race runs deep.
SUGGEST: ADORABEEL (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 2), (6 / F / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Listed event for the two year olds over 1200m and another tricky event with pace/tactics and how the track is playing key. Slight lean (mainly due to value) lies with REDOUBLE @ $9+ (BET365) who was a duel-acceptor here and in Sydney, but they’ve elected to make the trip north. Then want to have a smaller play on one at huge odds in SPRING TYCOON @ $67+, who has been unlucky with barrier draws to date. May be able to lead here, and given the track/distance, usually an advantage to be in front. May lack the class, but at 66/1+ worth the gamble.
SUGGEST: REDOUBLE (EACH WAY) @ $9+, SPRING TYCOON (EACH WAY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (F / 5 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Now for a Listed event for the fillies and mares over 1200m and another even. Competitive affair with pace/tactics critical once again. Slight lean towards a couple I can’t split in **PERIGNON** and PALAZZO PUBBLICO @ $8.50+ and $7.50+ respectively. Suggest a play on both on WIN only basis’ given current odds. Given the better odds, will make PERIGNON a BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **PERIGNON** (WIN) @ $8.50+, PALAZZO PUBBLICO (WIN) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the Group 5 brc sprint to be run over 1350 and a good little race with pace/tactics key. Slight lean **RELIGIFY** @ $7+ with most operators. Little wary that there looks to be decent pace up front, but from the good draw could have the luxury of taking a sit just behind CHARMED HARMONY and COOLRING if they happen to want to get into a speed battle for the lead. Will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, want to have a secondary play on one of our faves in ROCK STURDY who has gone very close for us at odds on a couple of occasions, notably in the Emirates and more recently first up last prep. If they go hard enough up front and backmarkers are given any chance, then should be hitting the line late at a juicy $16+ with most operators. Finally, tertiary smaller play on TERONADO @ $41+. Main dangers CHARMED HARMONY and BACHMAN.
SUGGEST: **RELIGIFY** (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $7+, ROCK STRUDY (WIN / EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $16+, TERONADO (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (1, 5 / 7 / F / 2, 8), (1, 5 / F / F / 2, 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Now a Group 2 for the three year old fillies in the Magic Millions The Roses to be run over 2000m. Pace aplenty here which should give those off the pace their chance to swoop late. Very open race and as a result, looking to play through a few at odds. First, think the maps might pan out perfectly for DAWNIE PERFECT @ $26+ (BET365) who only needs to go close to recapturing her early Spring form to be very hard to beat here. Next, want to play DULVERTON @ $26+ also (this time with SPORTSBET) who needs to lift, but has shown glimpses in races to say she is heading in the right direction. Finally, smaller play on SEBRING SALLY who definitely needs to lift also, but should get pace to suit and to also help offset the bad gate and be a fluker’s hope at a massive $91+ with LUXBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main danger FALKENBERG!
SUGGEST: DAWNIE PERFECT (EACH WAY) @ $26+, DULVERTON (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *SEBRING SALLY* (EACH WAY) @ $91+, FIRST FOUR (11 / F / F / 7, 8, 12) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Doomben Cup, with a relatively small, but select field assembled, with arguably every single runner having legitimate claims. Slight lean value wise with OUR IVANHOWE at a tidy $10+ with UBET, SPORTSBET, UNIBET and BET365. Went close in a Caulfield Cup, so has the class and if close to 100% right in this and importantly drawn to get a good run, hopefully just behind the leaders. The other I like at odds is MAURUS @ $26+ with BET365. Main dangers LEEBAZ and MESSENE.
SUGGEST: OUR IVANHOWE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MAURUS (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6 / F / F / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: We finish with a Group 3 for the three year olds over 1350m. Tricky finish, open field with many prime chances drawn wide and will need luck. Hoping they don’t go too crazy up front and if so, think TAKEDOWN can cross from the carpark (19) and give a great site @ $9+ with UBET and LUXBET. Also, want to play on *TIVACI* at a very juicy $34+ with BET365. Is as good as any runner here at his best, and silly overs. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers RAGEESE, COUNTERATTACK and SIR BACHUS.
SUGGEST: TAKEDOWN (EACH WAY) @ $9+, *TIVACI* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 6 / F / F / 2, 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $26.44+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: PERIGNON @ $8.50+, RELIGIFY @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: TIVACI @ $34+, SEBRING SALLY @ $91+