ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2015
Racing at MORPHETTVILLE with the penetrometer reading 5.51, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) surface. However heavy rain is expected mid-afternoon. As a result, focusing on the first few before the rain arrives, in addition to the big ones later however with an expectation that you’ll need to handle softer ground.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Racing back at Morphettville (last week was on the ‘Parks’ track), with the rail back in the TRUE position. Probably the fairest rail position for this track, so hoping for an even track where all runners get their chance, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially on the back of decent rain on Thursday evening.
Race 1: Interesting start with KILLARNEY KID again the one to beat, but today at an even shorter price @ $1.70+. Concede hard to beat again and should be in the finish, but not good enough value given the skinny price, with him not as well weighted today. Give RIVER’S LANE @ $13+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET) and HAVE PLENTY @ $6.50+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET, BET365) good chances to knock off the fave. RIVER’S LANE gets the appropriate weight swing of 2kg to go close/closer, while HAVE PLENTY beat us last time against out pick ZAYAK who actually heads to Caulfield today. Note no third dividend, hence play RIVER’S LANE each way, and HAVE PLENTY on a WIN only basis. Happy to play around the two, with obvious main danger KILLARNEY KID (if keen play through multies) and TIDY PROPHET another with claims.
SUGGEST: RIVER’S LANE (EACH WAY) @ $13+, HAVE PLENTY (WIN) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 6 / 3, 6, 7 / 3, 5, 6, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Open event over the mile and implementing the ‘best horse rule’ who in this instant I think lies with ZEBRINZ @ $3+ with most operators. Keep it simply and play on a WIN only basis.
SUGGEST: ZEBRINZ (WIN) @ $3.00+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 3: Now for the two year olds and very familiar with the form through If Not Now When, and remembering we backed the $14 winner last time in Modern Wonder. From that same race (Dequitteville) which I think will be a good form race moving forward, expecting improvement from **MOQLA** @ $10+ with UBET. Looks a good each way price and will appreciate decent speed up front here which looks a likely scenario. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers two others with If Not Now When form in TRIs and MOSHKI.
SUGGEST: **MOQLA** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5 / F / F / 8), (4, 5 / 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 4: With unknown on the track condition for this time of the day, am leaving for the time being. Keep an eye on Facebook and Twitter for any updates should we get keep on anything based on how track is playing and how wet/dry the track is prior to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 5: With unknown on the track condition for this time of the day, am leaving for the time being. Keep an eye on Facebook and Twitter for any updates should we get keep on anything based on how track is playing and how wet/dry the track is prior to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 6: The first of the Group 1s, starting with the Adelaide Oaks and as expecting a good field of fillies assembled. Looking at two at double figure odds who are in form and most importantly won’t mind if the heavens opened as forecast. The two in question are BENGAL CAT @ $11+ (UBET, SPORTSBET and UNIBET) and C’EST BEAU LA VIE @ $13+ with UBET and UNIBET. Main dangers SILENT SEDITION, ABBEY MARIE and ARCADIA DREAM.
SUGGEST: BENGAL CAT (EACH WAY) @ $11+, C’EST BEAU LA VIE (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6, 14 / F / F / 7, 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Now for the Group 1 Robert Sangster and what a brilliant field assembled. Extremely difficult race with so much speed, quality and depth, but these are those races that can pay the largest of dividends given the difficulty involved. Made even harder with the chance of big rain, which is on its way. Slight lean BADAWIYA @ $14+ with most operators, ahead of PRIVATE SECRETARY who is normally one we steer clear of as is usually under the odds, but seems like many punters have had enough and as a result we get a price today @ $26+ with UBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. Blowout hope *PITTSBURGH FLYER* @ $67+ with UBET. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers/main value runners for multiples (don’t worry about smaller % as dividends could pay anything) GRIANTE, SHEIDEL, SABATINI, I LOVE IT, DON’T DOUBT MAMMA.
SUGGEST: BADAWIYA (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $14+, PRIVATE SECRETARY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *PITTSBURGH FLYER* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 9, 12, 18 / 7, 16, 17 / F / 7, 16, 17), (F / 1, 3, 9, 12, 18 / 1, 3, 9, 12, 18 / 7, 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 8: Finish with another very open affair, despite what the market may suggest. Like the Weir duo at double figure odds here in ATLANTIS DREAM @ $12+ (UBET, UNIBET, SPORTSBET) and **HIJACK HUSSEY** @ $15+ with BET365, with no major concerns with the expected rain. Given the slightly better odds for the latter, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Blowout hope *NO TRICKS* at a massive $71+ with UNIBET, SPORTSBET and BET365. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers FRENCH EMOTION, METAPHORICAL and MEFNOODA.
SUGGEST: ATLANTIS DREAM (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $12+, HIJACK HUSSEY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $15+, *NO TRICKS* @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (7, 9, 13 / 1, 5 / 1, 5 / F), (7, 9, 13 / F / F / 1, 4, 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $21.79+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: MOQLA @ $10+, HIJACK HUSSEY @ $15+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: PITTSBURGH FLYER @ $67+, NO TRICKS @ $71+