ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2016
Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.85, hence currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We return to FLEMINGTON (HEADQUARTERS) after a nice break, with the rail back in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.
Race 1: We start the day with the two year old fillies down the straight and MERRIEST looks extremely hard to beat after we were on her on debut which she won impressively at a better than expected $7. Not $7 on offer here, but hopefully a nice way to double your money or better, $2.00+ with UBET, to start the day on a WIN only basis. Main danger GIROUX.
SUGGEST: MERRIEST (WIN) @ $2.00+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 1, 2 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 2: Tricky little open handicap despite the small field, with most runners with legitimate winning claims. In saying that, nothing better than a good, tasty RIB EYE and that’s exactly who we’ll be on (and hopefully eating later) @ $3.00+ with BET365 and UBET. Suggest on a WIN only basis, and be sure to note no third dividend. Main dangers are those reflected in the market in the form of SECOND BULLET, ZABISCO and GOOD VALUE.
SUGGEST: RIB EYE (WIN) @ $3.00+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5 / 8 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Most would know we’re not one to normally back several shorter priced runners in succession, but they are standing out early on this particular card. This time in the form of FLEUR FATALE @ $2.70+ with UBET. Was super first up after a very long break behind the much talked about Miss Vista and sectionals throughout were simply excellent. Looked like she would derive great benefit from her first up run and if so will be terribly hard to beat here. Again suggest on a WIN only basis. Main dangers GREY STREET (plain for her standards last time after previous run behind Petits Filou), REEMAH (more than capable of surprising first up from a break here), REBOUND and DANCE WITH FONTEIN.
SUGGEST: FLEUR FATALE (WIN) @ $2.70+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 6 / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 over 2000m and much revolves around the two Lloyd Williams’ imports as reflected by the market with MY BANTRY BAY and SIR PROSPECTOR. Was interested in entertaining a potential upset in the form of JENNIO who is now out. As a result, expecting the two imports to battle this out with a slight lean to MY BANTRY BAY @ $2.90+ (UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BETSTAR) ahead of SIR PROSPECTOR @ $5+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Happy to back both on a WIN only basis skewed in the order provided. Main danger another import, this time in the form of former Japanese galloper THE BANDIT.
SUGGEST: MY BANTRY BAY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.90+, SIR PROSPECTOR (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3, 6 / 3, 6 / F) (roving 3, 6, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Open Women’s Trainer’s handicap down the straight over 1000m. Very unlike the dungeon, but yet another shorter priced runner as a clear top pick, this time in the form of SUPIDO @ $1.60+ with UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BET365 and BETSTAR. Very hard to beat, and actually drops significantly in weight after running serious time with a whole lot more on back in the past. Also, want something small each way (potentially small win, more place) on *KLISHINA* @ $51+ with UNIBET and SPORTSBET. Given odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LE BONSIR, HARD ROMP, ADMIRAL, BEAU RADA and BULLPIT.
SUGGEST: SUPIDO (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $1.60+, *KLISHINA* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 5, 6 / 7 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 80%)
Race 6: Open event for the three year olds over 1400m and reckon **PRESTWICK** has come back very well after a couple of issues/poorer runs in recent preps. This was all on the back of a very promising start to his career. Reckon he can go on with it now on the back of first up win, with $4.40+ on offer her at UBET and BET365. Given current odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Just ahead of SHOCKOHOLIC @ $8.50+ with each of UBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Primary and secondary plays on the two, with saving first fours around main dangers UN DE SCEAUX and SIR SAGAMORE.
SUGGEST: **PRESTICK** (WIN / EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, SHOCKOHOLIC (WIN / EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 10 / 3, 7 / F / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7 (updated at 8:35am following scratching to ANGELOLOGY): Another open event, this time over the longer 2800m distance. Liked ANGELOLOGY, however race morning scratching, which means a restructure of the strategy for this race. Now will play DE LITTLE ENGINE on a WIN only basis @ $3.70+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS), ahead of best value runner PARADANZA @ $11+ with most operators. Main danger most definitely market favourite LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY who should be right in the thick of things, but little value at $3+.
SUGGEST: DE LITTLE ENGINE (WIN) @ $3.70+, PARADANZA (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (4 / 2 / F / 9), (4 / F / 2 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Benchmark 90 over 1400m. DUIBIO is most definitely the one to beat, however just wary of the price and think purely from a value perspective, prefer to play around a couple of others at better odds. In saying that, suggest DUIBIO across multies and/or a one out quaddie leg given featherweight of 52.5kg after the claim from Michael Dee after already being on the minimum. The two in question at better odds are **DEL PRADO** @ $9+ with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS and BETSTAR, in addition to WHISTLE BABY @ similar $8.50+ price with UBET, LUXBET and BET365. Given slightly better odds for DEL PRADO, will make a BEST VALUE BET of the day. Main danger DUIBIO.
SUGGEST: **DEL PRADO** (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $9+, WHISTLE BABY (WIN / EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (11 / 1, 4 / F / 1, 4), (11 / F / F / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9 (updated at 8:35am following scratching of top pick GABELLA): And we finish with the benchmark 84 Mother’s Day Handicap for the fillies and mares over 2000m. As usual with the fillies and mares, very competitive and no different here in a big field, which also means plenty of value. Want to finish the day with a couple of juicy odds. The two in question include AMARELA @ $17+ (LUXBET, BET365) and *DULVERTON* @ $34+ also with BET365. Given the odds will make the latter our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SNOW SECRET, SURE YOU CAN, INISHOWEN and CHABAUD.
SUGGEST: AMARELA (EACH WAY) @ $17+, *DULVERTON* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 7, 8 / F / F / 5, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds $8.09+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: PRESTWICK @ $4.40+, DEL PRADO @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: KLISHINA @ $51+, DULVERTON @ $34+